Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
600 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAGINAW
MICHIGAN TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MICHIGAN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 122...WW 123...
DISCUSSION...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF A
PRE-COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE RAPIDLY ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
REGION. DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES AHEAD OF THE LINE...BEFORE IT MOVES EAST OF
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 124 TORNADO MI LH LM 181410Z - 182200Z
AXIS..95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NW MBS/SAGINAW MI/ - 20SE JXN/JACKSON MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /13NW MBS - 38WSW DXO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
LAT...LON 43668238 42048233 42048605 43668619
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 124 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 124
VALID 181950Z - 182040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW DTW
TO 40 SE BAX.
..MARSH..04/18/13
ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 124
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC099-115-147-163-182040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MACOMB MONROE ST. CLAIR
WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LHZ443-463-464-182040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 124
VALID 181840Z - 181940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW ARB TO
20 ESE FNT TO 10 SW BAX.
..MARSH..04/18/13
ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 124
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC063-087-091-099-115-125-147-151-161-163-181940-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HURON LAPEER LENAWEE
MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND
ST. CLAIR SANILAC WASHTENAW
WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LHZ441-442-443-462-463-464-181940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 124
VALID 181737Z - 181840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW JXN TO
20 SE LAN TO 20 S MBS TO 15 N MBS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 521.
..EDWARDS..04/18/13
ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 124
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC017-049-063-065-075-087-091-093-099-115-125-145-147-151-155-
157-161-163-181840-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY GENESEE HURON
INGHAM JACKSON LAPEER
LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB
MONROE OAKLAND SAGINAW
ST. CLAIR SANILAC SHIAWASSEE
TUSCOLA WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-181840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 124
VALID 181623Z - 181740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AZO
TO 5 ESE GRR TO 10 NE RQB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 521.
..EDWARDS..04/18/13
ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 124
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC015-017-025-037-045-049-057-063-065-067-073-075-077-087-091-
093-099-107-111-115-117-125-145-147-151-155-157-161-163-
181740-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BAY CALHOUN
CLINTON EATON GENESEE
GRATIOT HURON INGHAM
IONIA ISABELLA JACKSON
KALAMAZOO LAPEER LENAWEE
LIVINGSTON MACOMB MECOSTA
MIDLAND MONROE MONTCALM
OAKLAND SAGINAW ST. CLAIR
SANILAC SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-181740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 124
VALID 181531Z - 181640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW MKG
TO 25 SW RQB TO 5 WNW RQB.
..EDWARDS..04/18/13
ATTN...WFO...GRR...DTX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 124
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC005-015-017-025-037-045-049-057-063-065-067-073-075-077-081-
087-091-093-099-107-111-115-117-121-123-125-139-145-147-151-155-
157-159-161-163-181640-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGAN BARRY BAY
CALHOUN CLINTON EATON
GENESEE GRATIOT HURON
INGHAM IONIA ISABELLA
JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT
LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON
MACOMB MECOSTA MIDLAND
MONROE MONTCALM MUSKEGON
NEWAYGO OAKLAND OTTAWA
SAGINAW ST. CLAIR SANILAC
SHIAWASSEE TUSCOLA VAN BUREN
WASHTENAW WAYNE
$$
LCZ422-423-460-LHZ421-422-441-442-443-462-463-464-LMZ846-
181640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ST. CLAIR RIVER
DETROIT RIVER
LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION)
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.