SEL5

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 485
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   125 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     LAKE HURON
     LAKE MICHIGAN
     LAKE SUPERIOR

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
     600 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
   OSCODA MICHIGAN TO 60 MILES NORTH OF PELLSTON MICHIGAN.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LOWER MI
   WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES MAY BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF
   TORNADO.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 24035.


   ...HART

   SEL5

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 485
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   125 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
     LAKE HURON
     LAKE MICHIGAN
     LAKE SUPERIOR

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
     600 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
   OSCODA MICHIGAN TO 60 MILES NORTH OF PELLSTON MICHIGAN.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LOWER MI
   WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES MAY BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF
   TORNADO.

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 24035.


   ...HART

   WOUS64 KWNS 011721
   WOU5

   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 485
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   125 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   MIC001-007-009-011-029-031-033-039-047-051-069-079-097-113-119-
   129-135-137-141-143-012200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0485.140901T1725Z-140901T2200Z/

   MI 
   .    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ALCONA               ALPENA              ANTRIM              
   ARENAC               CHARLEVOIX          CHEBOYGAN           
   CHIPPEWA             CRAWFORD            EMMET               
   GLADWIN              IOSCO               KALKASKA            
   MACKINAC             MISSAUKEE           MONTMORENCY         
   OGEMAW               OSCODA              OTSEGO              
   PRESQUE ISLE         ROSCOMMON           


   LHZ345-346-347-348-349-361-362-363-LMZ341-342-LSZ321-322-
   012200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0485.140901T1725Z-140901T2200Z/

   CW 

   .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

   STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
   MACKINAC ISLAND 

   ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL 

   5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
   BOIS BLANC ISLAND 

   PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
   NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY 

   STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI 

   LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT 
   TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE 

   LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LT. TO STURGEON POINT  MI 5NM OFF
   SHORE TO US/CANADIAN BORDER 

   LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
   US/CANADIAN BORDER 

   SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE 

   NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
   TRAVERSE BAY 

   WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI 

   ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY 

   ATTN...WFO...APX...

   SAW5 
   WW 485 SEVERE TSTM MI LH LM LS 011725Z - 012200Z
   AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
   35SW OSC/OSCODA MI/ - 60N PLN/PELLSTON MI/
   ..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /31SW ASP - 20W SSM/
   HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
   MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

   LAT...LON 44098491 46438584 46438375 44098288

   THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
   FOR WOU5.

Watch 485 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 485

VALID 011955Z - 012040Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE HTL
TO 20 NW APN TO 40 SSE ANJ TO 15 E ANJ.

..CARBIN..09/01/14

ATTN...WFO...APX...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MIC001-007-011-069-141-012040-

MI 
.    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALCONA		     ALPENA		 ARENAC 	     
IOSCO		     PRESQUE ISLE	 
$$


LHZ347-348-349-361-362-363-012040-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND 

PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY 

STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI 

LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT 
TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE 

LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LT. TO STURGEON POINT  MI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO US/CANADIAN BORDER 

LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 485

VALID 011850Z - 011940Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S HTL TO
15 SSE PLN TO 30 N PLN TO 30 W ANJ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1656

..CARBIN..09/01/14

ATTN...WFO...APX...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MIC001-007-011-031-033-039-051-069-119-129-135-137-141-143-
011940-

MI 
.    MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALCONA		     ALPENA		 ARENAC 	     
CHEBOYGAN	     CHIPPEWA		 CRAWFORD	     
GLADWIN 	     IOSCO		 MONTMORENCY	     
OGEMAW		     OSCODA		 OTSEGO 	     
PRESQUE ISLE	     ROSCOMMON		 
$$


LHZ345-346-347-348-349-361-362-363-LSZ321-322-011940-

CW 

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI 

ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY 

STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND 

ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL 

5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND 

PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY 

STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI 

LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT 
TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5 NM FROM SHORE 

LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LT. TO STURGEON POINT  MI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO US/CANADIAN BORDER 

LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO
US/CANADIAN BORDER 

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.