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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS NOW FORMING OVER THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY NEWD AND MERGE INTO A CLUSTER THAT CONTINUES
E/NE ACROSS WRN KS...WITH A LINGERING RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GOODLAND KANSAS TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 442...WW 443...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 444 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 192030Z - 200500Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55NNW GLD/GOODLAND KS/ - 45WSW SPD/SPRINGFIELD CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /46NNW GLD - 18SE TBE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 40090068 37020201 37020473 40090351
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 444 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 444
VALID 200340Z - 200440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E LBL TO
25 NW LBL TO 40 N EHA TO 40 E LAA TO 60 ENE LAA TO 45 SE GLD TO
50 SW HLC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492
..COOK..07/20/15
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC025-033-047-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-119-129-
135-145-165-171-175-187-189-200440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS
FINNEY FORD GRANT
GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL
HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA
LANE MEADE MORTON
NESS PAWNEE RUSH
SCOTT SEWARD STANTON
STEVENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 444
VALID 200250Z - 200340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW SPD TO
15 E LAA TO 40 S GLD TO 50 WSW HLC.
..COOK..07/20/15
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-061-099-200340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT KIOWA
PROWERS
$$
KSC025-033-047-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-119-129-
135-145-165-171-175-187-189-200340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS
FINNEY FORD GRANT
GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL
HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA
LANE MEADE MORTON
NESS PAWNEE RUSH
SCOTT SEWARD STANTON
STEVENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 444
VALID 200125Z - 200240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PUB TO
25 WNW LHX TO 45 WSW ITR TO 35 NNW ITR TO 30 E AKO TO 45 SSE SNY
AND 45 NE ALS TO 25 S PUB TO 25 NNE LHX TO 20 SW ITR TO 30 N ITR
TO 40 E AKO TO 40 ENE AKO.
..COOK..07/20/15
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-041-055-061-063-071-089-099-101-125-200240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY EL PASO HUERFANO
KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS
OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO
YUMA
$$
KSC023-055-071-075-093-101-109-129-153-171-181-187-193-199-203-
200240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE FINNEY GREELEY
HAMILTON KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MORTON RAWLINS
SCOTT SHERMAN STANTON
THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-200240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 444
VALID 200050Z - 200140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW PUB TO
25 WNW LHX TO 45 WSW ITR TO 35 NNW ITR TO 30 E AKO TO 45 SSE SNY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488
..COOK..07/20/15
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-041-055-061-063-071-089-099-101-125-200140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY EL PASO HUERFANO
KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS
OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO
YUMA
$$
KSC023-055-071-075-093-101-109-129-153-171-181-187-193-199-203-
200140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE FINNEY GREELEY
HAMILTON KEARNY LANE
LOGAN MORTON RAWLINS
SCOTT SHERMAN STANTON
THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-200140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 444
VALID 192330Z - 200040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COOK..07/19/15
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-039-041-055-061-063-071-073-089-099-101-121-
125-200040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO
HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON
LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO
PROWERS PUEBLO WASHINGTON
YUMA
$$
KSC023-071-075-093-109-129-153-171-181-187-193-199-203-200040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GREELEY HAMILTON
KEARNY LOGAN MORTON
RAWLINS SCOTT SHERMAN
STANTON THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-200040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 444
VALID 192250Z - 192340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COOK..07/19/15
ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 444
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-017-025-039-041-055-061-063-071-073-089-099-101-121-
125-192340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CHEYENNE
CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO
HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON
LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO
PROWERS PUEBLO WASHINGTON
YUMA
$$
KSC023-071-075-093-109-129-153-171-181-187-193-199-203-192340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE GREELEY HAMILTON
KEARNY LOGAN MORTON
RAWLINS SCOTT SHERMAN
STANTON THOMAS WALLACE
WICHITA
$$
NEC057-087-192340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNDY HITCHCOCK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.