Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
255 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast New York
Eastern Ohio
Pennsylvania
Extreme northern West Virginia
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A moist and modestly unstable environment along with
increasingly strong deep-layer/low-level shear will support the
possibility of supercells capable of a tornado risk along with
hail/wind.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 10 miles southwest of Youngstown OH
to 30 miles east southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27030.
...Guyer
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 392 TORNADO NY OH PA WV 021855Z - 030300Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10SW YNG/YOUNGSTOWN OH/ - 30ESE AVP/WILKESBARRE PA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /33NW EWC - 30W SAX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 41868081 41887519 40437519 40418081
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 392 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 392
VALID 030055Z - 030140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W PIT TO
35 SSW IPT TO 20 SSW AVP TO 30 ESE AVP.
..SPC..10/03/18
ATTN...WFO...BGM...CLE...PBZ...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 392
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC023-030140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARRETT
$$
PAC001-003-009-011-013-021-025-027-037-041-043-051-055-057-059-
061-063-067-071-075-077-079-087-089-093-095-097-099-103-107-109-
111-125-129-133-030140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEGHENY BEDFORD
BERKS BLAIR CAMBRIA
CARBON CENTRE COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FAYETTE
FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE
HUNTINGDON INDIANA JUNIATA
LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH
LUZERNE MIFFLIN MONROE
MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY PIKE SCHUYLKILL
SNYDER SOMERSET WASHINGTON
WESTMORELAND YORK
$$
WVC009-077-030140-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE PRESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 392
VALID 022330Z - 030040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW HLG
TO 5 N DUJ TO 25 WSW IPT TO 25 WNW AVP TO 30 ESE AVP.
..SPC..10/02/18
ATTN...WFO...BGM...CLE...PBZ...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 392
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC023-030040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARRETT
$$
OHC081-030040-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON
$$
PAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-019-021-025-027-031-033-035-037-
041-043-051-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-071-075-077-079-081-
087-089-093-095-097-099-103-107-109-111-119-125-129-133-
030040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG
BEAVER BEDFORD BERKS
BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA
CARBON CENTRE CLARION
CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN FAYETTE
FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE
HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON
JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LANCASTER
LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE
LYCOMING MIFFLIN MONROE
MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY PIKE SCHUYLKILL
SNYDER SOMERSET UNION
WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND YORK
$$
WVC009-029-077-030040-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE HANCOCK PRESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 392
VALID 022140Z - 022240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW YNG TO
30 NE FKL TO 20 W MSV.
..SPC..10/02/18
ATTN...WFO...BGM...CLE...PBZ...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 392
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC105-022240-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SULLIVAN
$$
OHC029-081-099-155-022240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLUMBIANA JEFFERSON MAHONING
TRUMBULL
$$
PAC003-005-007-011-013-015-019-021-023-025-027-031-033-035-037-
043-047-053-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-081-085-087-089-
093-095-097-099-103-105-107-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-
131-022240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER
BERKS BLAIR BRADFORD
BUTLER CAMBRIA CAMERON
CARBON CENTRE CLARION
CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA
DAUPHIN ELK FOREST
HUNTINGDON INDIANA JEFFERSON
JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LAWRENCE
LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE
LYCOMING MERCER MIFFLIN
MONROE MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PIKE
POTTER SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA
UNION VENANGO WASHINGTON
WAYNE WESTMORELAND WYOMING
$$
WVC009-029-022240-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE HANCOCK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 392
VALID 022025Z - 022140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WENDT..10/02/18
ATTN...WFO...BGM...CLE...PBZ...PHI...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 392
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NYC105-022140-
NY
. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SULLIVAN
$$
OHC007-029-081-099-155-022140-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHTABULA COLUMBIANA JEFFERSON
MAHONING TRUMBULL
$$
PAC003-005-007-011-013-015-019-021-023-025-027-031-033-035-037-
039-043-047-049-053-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-
085-087-089-093-095-097-099-103-105-107-109-113-115-117-119-121-
123-125-127-129-131-022140-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER
BERKS BLAIR BRADFORD
BUTLER CAMBRIA CAMERON
CARBON CENTRE CLARION
CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA
CRAWFORD DAUPHIN ELK
ERIE FOREST HUNTINGDON
INDIANA JEFFERSON JUNIATA
LACKAWANNA LAWRENCE LEBANON
LEHIGH LUZERNE LYCOMING
MCKEAN MERCER MIFFLIN
MONROE MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON
NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PIKE
POTTER SCHUYLKILL SNYDER
SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA
UNION VENANGO WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE WESTMORELAND
WYOMING
$$
WVC009-029-022140-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROOKE HANCOCK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.