Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Upper Michigan
Eastern Minnesota
Northern and central Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
Lake Superior
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...The air mass will continue to rapidly moisten and
destabilize as a warm front continues to spread northward. This will
allow for storms to continue to intensify. Very strong winds through
a deep-layer will allow for both supercells and bowing segments.
Given the very moist environment and strength of the
deep-layer/low-level winds, a tornado risk exists, a few of which
could be strong/intense. Storms will steadily race
east-northeastward into northeast Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula
of Michigan this evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Eau Claire
WI to 35 miles east northeast of Escanaba MI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.
...Guyer
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Upper Michigan
Eastern Minnesota
Northern and central Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
Lake Superior
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 330 PM
until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...The air mass will continue to rapidly moisten and
destabilize as a warm front continues to spread northward. This will
allow for storms to continue to intensify. Very strong winds through
a deep-layer will allow for both supercells and bowing segments.
Given the very moist environment and strength of the
deep-layer/low-level winds, a tornado risk exists, a few of which
could be strong/intense. Storms will steadily race
east-northeastward into northeast Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula
of Michigan this evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Eau Claire
WI to 35 miles east northeast of Escanaba MI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.
...Guyer
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 395 TORNADO MI MN WI LM LS 032030Z - 040400Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
70WNW EAU/EAU CLAIRE WI/ - 35ENE ESC/ESCANABA MI/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /28NE MSP - 48ESE SAW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 46349280 47008643 44838643 44159280
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 395 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 395
VALID 040225Z - 040340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CWA
TO 40 E AUW TO 35 S IMT TO 20 N ESC TO 70 WNW ANJ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521
..JEWELL..10/04/18
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 395
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC041-109-153-040340-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DELTA MENOMINEE SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-029-061-075-083-087-115-135-040340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DOOR KEWAUNEE
MARINETTE OCONTO OUTAGAMIE
SHAWANO WAUPACA
$$
LMZ221-521-522-040340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 395
VALID 040130Z - 040240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW VOK
TO 25 SW CWA TO 20 N AUW TO 25 NE RHI TO 45 S CMX TO 35 ESE CMX.
..JEWELL..10/04/18
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 395
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-013-041-043-071-103-109-153-040240-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER BARAGA DELTA
DICKINSON IRON MARQUETTE
MENOMINEE SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-029-037-041-061-067-073-075-078-083-087-097-115-135-141-
040240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DOOR FLORENCE
FOREST KEWAUNEE LANGLADE
MARATHON MARINETTE MENOMINEE
OCONTO OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE
SHAWANO WAUPACA WOOD
$$
LMZ221-521-522-040240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 395
VALID 040025Z - 040140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW RST
TO 35 ESE MSP TO 40 NW EAU TO 55 SW ASX TO 20 SSW ASX TO 35 NNW
IWD AND 15 NE RST TO 10 SW EAU TO 40 NNE EAU TO 30 SSW IWD TO 30
NE IWD.
..JEWELL..10/04/18
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 395
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-013-041-043-053-061-071-103-109-131-153-040140-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER BARAGA DELTA
DICKINSON GOGEBIC HOUGHTON
IRON MARQUETTE MENOMINEE
ONTONAGON SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
WIC009-011-017-019-029-035-037-041-051-053-061-067-069-073-075-
078-083-085-087-097-099-107-115-119-121-125-135-141-040140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN BUFFALO CHIPPEWA
CLARK DOOR EAU CLAIRE
FLORENCE FOREST IRON
JACKSON KEWAUNEE LANGLADE
LINCOLN MARATHON MARINETTE
MENOMINEE OCONTO ONEIDA
OUTAGAMIE PORTAGE PRICE
RUSK SHAWANO TAYLOR
TREMPEALEAU VILAS WAUPACA
WOOD
$$
LMZ221-521-522-LSZ148-162-040140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 395
VALID 032350Z - 040040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW RST
TO 35 ESE MSP TO 40 NW EAU TO 55 SW ASX TO 20 SSW ASX TO 35 NNW
IWD.
..JEWELL..10/03/18
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...ARX...GRB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 395
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MIC003-013-041-043-053-061-071-103-109-131-153-040040-
MI
. MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALGER BARAGA DELTA
DICKINSON GOGEBIC HOUGHTON
IRON MARQUETTE MENOMINEE
ONTONAGON SCHOOLCRAFT
$$
MNC049-157-040040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOODHUE WABASHA
$$
WIC003-005-009-011-017-019-029-033-035-037-041-051-053-061-067-
069-073-075-078-083-085-087-091-093-097-099-107-113-115-119-121-
125-135-141-040040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLAND BARRON BROWN
BUFFALO CHIPPEWA CLARK
DOOR DUNN EAU CLAIRE
FLORENCE FOREST IRON
JACKSON KEWAUNEE LANGLADE
LINCOLN MARATHON MARINETTE
MENOMINEE OCONTO ONEIDA
OUTAGAMIE PEPIN PIERCE
PORTAGE PRICE RUSK
SAWYER SHAWANO TAYLOR
TREMPEALEAU VILAS WAUPACA
WOOD
$$
LMZ221-521-522-LSZ148-040040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE STURGEON BAY WI
OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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