Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
900 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Arkansas
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
Central and southern Missouri
Western Tennessee
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 900 AM until
400 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A complex of severe thunderstorms will move rapidly
southeast through this afternoon with damaging winds, potentially to
75 mph as the primary severe weather risk. Isolated large hail is
also possible, and a tornado or two may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles southwest of
Jefferson City MO to 50 miles northeast of Jackson TN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30045.
...Bunting
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
900 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast Arkansas
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
Central and southern Missouri
Western Tennessee
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 900 AM until
400 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A complex of severe thunderstorms will move rapidly
southeast through this afternoon with damaging winds, potentially to
75 mph as the primary severe weather risk. Isolated large hail is
also possible, and a tornado or two may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles southwest of
Jefferson City MO to 50 miles northeast of Jackson TN. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30045.
...Bunting
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 510 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO TN 181400Z - 182100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
35SW JEF/JEFFERSON CITY MO/ - 50NE MKL/JACKSON TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /39SSW COU - 50E DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30045.
LAT...LON 39009210 36888779 35348877 37479310
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 510 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 510
VALID 181925Z - 182040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ARG TO
30 SSE PAH TO 35 ENE PAH.
..WEINMAN..07/18/23
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...PAH...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC093-182040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI
$$
KYC035-055-075-083-105-143-157-221-182040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALLOWAY CRITTENDEN FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN LYON
MARSHALL TRIGG
$$
MOC069-155-182040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC005-017-023-033-039-045-053-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-183-
182040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHESTER
CROCKETT DECATUR DYER
GIBSON HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 510
VALID 181825Z - 181940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW JEF
TO 35 WSW FAM TO 25 SSE CGI TO 15 W PAH TO 15 ENE MDH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
..WEINMAN..07/18/23
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...PAH...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-055-093-121-181940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY GREENE MISSISSIPPI
RANDOLPH
$$
ILC055-059-069-087-127-151-165-199-181940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN GALLATIN HARDIN
JOHNSON MASSAC POPE
SALINE WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-035-039-055-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-221-181940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
CRITTENDEN FULTON GRAVES
HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON
MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TRIGG
$$
MOC023-029-035-065-069-091-105-125-131-133-143-149-155-161-169-
179-181-203-207-215-223-229-181940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CAMDEN CARTER
DENT DUNKLIN HOWELL
LACLEDE MARIES MILLER
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID OREGON
PEMISCOT PHELPS PULASKI
REYNOLDS RIPLEY SHANNON
STODDARD TEXAS WAYNE
WRIGHT
$$
TNC005-017-023-033-039-045-053-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-183-
181940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHESTER
CROCKETT DECATUR DYER
GIBSON HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 510
VALID 181630Z - 181740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW JEF
TO 10 SSE VIH TO 35 WSW FAM TO 10 S FAM TO 10 SSW BLV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
..HART..07/18/23
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...PAH...LSX...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC021-055-093-121-181740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY GREENE MISSISSIPPI
RANDOLPH
$$
ILC003-055-059-069-077-087-127-145-151-153-157-165-181-199-
181740-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HARDIN JACKSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE
UNION WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-035-039-055-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-221-181740-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
CRITTENDEN FULTON GRAVES
HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON
MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TRIGG
$$
MOC017-023-029-031-035-065-069-091-105-123-125-131-133-143-149-
155-157-161-169-179-181-186-201-203-207-215-223-229-181740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAMDEN
CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER DENT
DUNKLIN HOWELL LACLEDE
MADISON MARIES MILLER
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID OREGON
PEMISCOT PERRY PHELPS
PULASKI REYNOLDS RIPLEY
STE. GENEVIEVE SCOTT SHANNON
STODDARD TEXAS WAYNE
WRIGHT
$$
TNC005-017-023-033-039-045-053-075-077-079-095-097-113-131-183-
181740-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CHESTER
CROCKETT DECATUR DYER
GIBSON HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MADISON OBION WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (60%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.