Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Montana
Southwest North Dakota
Central and Western South Dakota
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...An arcing band of strong to severe thunderstorms is
forecast to develop this afternoon across the Watch area.
Small-scale bands and a few supercells are possible and will pose a
risk for mainly severe gusts and large hail. A tornado or two is
possible, especially where more persistent and stronger
thunderstorms encounter stronger low-level shear.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 120
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast
of Baker MT to 55 miles south southwest of Chamberlain SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
19035.
...Smith
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Montana
Southwest North Dakota
Central and Western South Dakota
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...An arcing band of strong to severe thunderstorms is
forecast to develop this afternoon across the Watch area.
Small-scale bands and a few supercells are possible and will pose a
risk for mainly severe gusts and large hail. A tornado or two is
possible, especially where more persistent and stronger
thunderstorms encounter stronger low-level shear.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 120
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast
of Baker MT to 55 miles south southwest of Chamberlain SD. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 187...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
19035.
...Smith
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 188 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD 061715Z - 070100Z
AXIS..120 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ENE BHK/BAKER MT/ - 55SSW 9V9/CHAMBERLAIN SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 105NM E/W /33WSW DIK - 30NNE ANW/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19035.
LAT...LON 46550095 43019736 43010211 46550600
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 188 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 188
VALID 062335Z - 070040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ANW TO
15 W 9V9 TO 35 NNW PIR TO 40 W MBG TO 25 ESE BHK TO 35 W BHK.
..LEITMAN..05/06/24
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...FSD...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 188
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC025-070040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FALLON
$$
NDC001-011-037-041-085-087-070040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOWMAN GRANT
HETTINGER SIOUX SLOPE
$$
SDC003-015-017-023-031-041-043-049-053-059-065-069-073-107-119-
129-070040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BRULE BUFFALO
CHARLES MIX CORSON DEWEY
DOUGLAS FAULK GREGORY
HAND HUGHES HYDE
JERAULD POTTER SULLY
WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 188
VALID 062235Z - 062340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE VTN
TO 15 SW PIR TO 40 SSE Y22 TO 25 NE 4BQ.
..LEITMAN..05/06/24
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...FSD...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 188
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-062340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON
$$
NDC001-011-037-041-085-087-062340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOWMAN GRANT
HETTINGER SIOUX SLOPE
$$
SDC003-015-017-023-031-041-043-049-053-059-063-065-069-073-085-
105-107-117-119-123-129-062340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BRULE BUFFALO
CHARLES MIX CORSON DEWEY
DOUGLAS FAULK GREGORY
HAND HARDING HUGHES
HYDE JERAULD LYMAN
PERKINS POTTER STANLEY
SULLY TRIPP WALWORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 188
VALID 062140Z - 062240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE VTN TO
40 SW PIR TO 45 SSW Y22 TO 20 NE 4BQ.
..LEITMAN..05/06/24
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...FSD...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 188
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-062240-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON
$$
NDC001-011-037-041-085-087-062240-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOWMAN GRANT
HETTINGER SIOUX SLOPE
$$
SDC003-015-017-023-031-041-043-049-053-059-063-065-069-073-075-
085-105-107-117-119-123-129-137-062240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BRULE BUFFALO
CHARLES MIX CORSON DEWEY
DOUGLAS FAULK GREGORY
HAND HARDING HUGHES
HYDE JERAULD JONES
LYMAN PERKINS POTTER
STANLEY SULLY TRIPP
WALWORTH ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 188
VALID 062035Z - 062140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW VTN
TO 50 NW PHP TO 15 ENE 4BQ.
..LEITMAN..05/06/24
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...FSD...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 188
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-062140-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON
$$
NDC001-011-037-041-085-087-062140-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOWMAN GRANT
HETTINGER SIOUX SLOPE
$$
SDC003-015-017-023-031-041-043-049-053-055-059-063-065-069-073-
075-085-095-105-107-117-119-121-123-129-137-062140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BRULE BUFFALO
CHARLES MIX CORSON DEWEY
DOUGLAS FAULK GREGORY
HAAKON HAND HARDING
HUGHES HYDE JERAULD
JONES LYMAN MELLETTE
PERKINS POTTER STANLEY
SULLY TODD TRIPP
WALWORTH ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 188
VALID 061945Z - 062040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 652.
..LEITMAN..05/06/24
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...FSD...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 188
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-062040-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON
$$
NDC001-011-037-041-085-087-062040-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOWMAN GRANT
HETTINGER SIOUX SLOPE
$$
SDC003-007-015-017-019-023-031-041-043-049-053-055-059-063-065-
069-071-073-075-085-093-095-105-107-117-119-121-123-129-137-
062040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BENNETT BRULE
BUFFALO BUTTE CHARLES MIX
CORSON DEWEY DOUGLAS
FAULK GREGORY HAAKON
HAND HARDING HUGHES
HYDE JACKSON JERAULD
JONES LYMAN MEADE
MELLETTE PERKINS POTTER
STANLEY SULLY TODD
TRIPP WALWORTH ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 188
VALID 061840Z - 061940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..05/06/24
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...FSD...UNR...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 188
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-061940-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON
$$
NDC001-011-037-041-085-087-061940-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BOWMAN GRANT
HETTINGER SIOUX SLOPE
$$
SDC003-007-015-017-019-023-031-041-043-049-053-055-059-063-065-
069-071-073-075-085-093-095-105-107-117-119-121-123-129-137-
061940-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BENNETT BRULE
BUFFALO BUTTE CHARLES MIX
CORSON DEWEY DOUGLAS
FAULK GREGORY HAAKON
HAND HARDING HUGHES
HYDE JACKSON JERAULD
JONES LYMAN MEADE
MELLETTE PERKINS POTTER
STANLEY SULLY TODD
TRIPP WALWORTH ZIEBACH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.