Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
645 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Iowa
Northern Kansas
Northwest Missouri
Central and Eastern Nebraska
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 645 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and quickly
increase this evening initially across northern Kansas and
south-central Nebraska. Some initial supercells capable of very
large hail can be expected. Some tornado risk may materialize later
this evening, but the potential for damaging winds should become the
most prominent hazard with the likelihood that a well-organized
cluster/MCS develops and moves east-southeastward across the region
later this evening into the overnight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north of Hill
City KS to 35 miles east southeast of Shenandoah IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195...WW 196...WW
197...WW 198...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Guyer
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
645 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Iowa
Northern Kansas
Northwest Missouri
Central and Eastern Nebraska
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 645 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and quickly
increase this evening initially across northern Kansas and
south-central Nebraska. Some initial supercells capable of very
large hail can be expected. Some tornado risk may materialize later
this evening, but the potential for damaging winds should become the
most prominent hazard with the likelihood that a well-organized
cluster/MCS develops and moves east-southeastward across the region
later this evening into the overnight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north of Hill
City KS to 35 miles east southeast of Shenandoah IA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195...WW 196...WW
197...WW 198...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Guyer
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 199 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 072345Z - 080600Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50N HLC/HILL CITY KS/ - 35ESE SDA/SHENANDOAH IA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /35E MCK - 56SE OVR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 41269983 41719480 39409480 38959983
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 199 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 199
VALID 080335Z - 080440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N SLN TO
25 WNW OLU.
..LYONS..05/08/23
ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 199
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-085-129-137-145-155-165-080440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT HARRISON MILLS
MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
SHELBY
$$
KSC005-013-027-041-043-045-061-085-087-117-131-149-157-161-177-
197-201-080440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS
GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON
MARSHALL NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE
REPUBLIC RILEY SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
MOC003-005-087-147-080440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON HOLT
NODAWAY
$$
NEC023-025-037-053-055-059-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-141-143-
147-151-153-155-159-169-177-185-080440-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CASS COLFAX
DODGE DOUGLAS FILLMORE
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
LANCASTER NEMAHA OTOE
PAWNEE PLATTE POLK
RICHARDSON SALINE SARPY
SAUNDERS SEWARD THAYER
WASHINGTON YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 199
VALID 080210Z - 080340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW SLN TO
55 NE HLC TO 35 NNW GRI.
..LYONS..05/08/23
ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 199
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-085-129-137-145-155-165-080340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT HARRISON MILLS
MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
SHELBY
$$
KSC005-013-027-029-041-043-045-061-085-087-089-117-123-131-143-
149-157-161-177-197-201-080340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS GEARY JACKSON
JEFFERSON JEWELL MARSHALL
MITCHELL NEMAHA OTTAWA
POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY
SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
MOC003-005-087-147-080340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON HOLT
NODAWAY
$$
NEC001-023-025-035-037-053-055-059-067-079-081-095-097-109-121-
125-127-129-131-133-141-143-147-151-153-155-159-169-177-181-185-
080340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUTLER CASS
CLAY COLFAX DODGE
DOUGLAS FILLMORE GAGE
HALL HAMILTON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LANCASTER MERRICK
NANCE NEMAHA NUCKOLLS
OTOE PAWNEE PLATTE
POLK RICHARDSON SALINE
SARPY SAUNDERS SEWARD
THAYER WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 199
VALID 080050Z - 080140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WEINMAN..05/08/23
ATTN...WFO...OAX...EAX...TOP...GID...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 199
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-085-129-137-145-155-165-080140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT HARRISON MILLS
MONTGOMERY PAGE POTTAWATTAMIE
SHELBY
$$
KSC005-013-027-029-041-043-045-061-085-087-089-117-123-131-141-
143-147-149-157-161-163-177-183-197-201-080140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS GEARY JACKSON
JEFFERSON JEWELL MARSHALL
MITCHELL NEMAHA OSBORNE
OTTAWA PHILLIPS POTTAWATOMIE
REPUBLIC RILEY ROOKS
SHAWNEE SMITH WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC003-005-087-147-080140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREW ATCHISON HOLT
NODAWAY
$$
NEC001-019-023-025-035-037-047-053-055-059-061-065-067-073-077-
079-081-083-093-095-097-099-109-121-125-127-129-131-133-137-141-
143-147-151-153-155-159-163-169-175-177-181-185-080140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BUFFALO BUTLER
CASS CLAY COLFAX
DAWSON DODGE DOUGLAS
FILLMORE FRANKLIN FURNAS
GAGE GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HARLAN
HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KEARNEY LANCASTER MERRICK
NANCE NEMAHA NUCKOLLS
OTOE PAWNEE PHELPS
PLATTE POLK RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD SHERMAN THAYER
VALLEY WASHINGTON WEBSTER
YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (50%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.