ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 190801

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SERN HALF OF UT...PORTIONS OF
   WRN/CNTRL/SRN CO...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN/WRN NM...NRN/E-CNTRL
   AZ...EXTREME SERN NV...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SRN
   CA----MUCH OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...THE NRN
   TWO-THIRDS OF VENTURA COUNTY...NWRN/N-CNTRL LOS ANGELES
   COUNTY...PARTS OF FAR SRN KERN COUNTY...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG MID-LEVEL
   CYCLONE MOVING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AN ACCOMPANYING
   VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SSEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL CA AND IS
   BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED WITHIN THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE BROADER
   AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE NEWD FROM PARTS OF
   THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH
   PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
   SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE NRN ROCKIES. A ZONE
   OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   OVERLIE DRY/VERY DRY SFC CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT
   BASIN...THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...AND THE SW STATES TO ENHANCE THE
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A SEPARATE AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN CA.

   ...THE SERN HALF OF UT...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN CO...PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL/NRN/WRN NM...NRN/E-CNTRL AZ...EXTREME SERN NV...
   ---WINDS----
   AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AFFECTS THE
   REGION...SWLY SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
   IN TANDEM WITH DIURNALLY DEEPENING MIXED LAYERS THAT WILL ALLOW THE
   STRONGER ALOFT TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE SFC. THE STRONG-WIND
   POTENTIAL WILL BE AIDED BY A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
   MANY LOCATIONS.

   A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
   PARTS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL NM MAY PREVENT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM
   BECOMING CRITICALLY STRONG THERE. HOWEVER...IN THIS AREA...FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXED-LAYER HEIGHTS REACHING OVER 11
   KFT...ALLOWING EVEN STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW -- I.E. AROUND THE
   500-MB LEVEL -- TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE SFC AS FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25
   TO 30 MPH. AND...WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES EXPECTED IN THIS AREA
   AMIDST VERY DRY FUELS AND A WARM/HOT AIR MASS -- AS DISCUSSED 
   BELOW -- CRITICAL DESIGNATION IS WARRANTED DESPITE THE LOCALIZED
   WEAKER SFC WINDS.

   ----RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND TEMPERATURES----
   WITH AN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIR MASS...AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS AIDING
   BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING/DRYING...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
   BETWEEN 4 AND 13 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
   WHILE VERTICAL MIXING STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES
   RISE INTO THE 80S AND 90S.

   ----FUELS----
   FUELS ARE DRY TO VERY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH ONGOING
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...INCLUDING SEVERAL AREAS OF EXCEPTIONAL
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THESE DRY/VERY FUELS WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...SOME AREAS
   HAVE RECEIVED WETTING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   RECENTLY. HOWEVER...MANY AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE APPRECIABLE
   RAINFALL...YIELDING BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO SUPPORT DRY FUELS.

   ...THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SRN CA----MUCH OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS
   OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF VENTURA
   COUNTY...NWRN/N-CNTRL LOS ANGELES COUNTY...PARTS OF FAR SRN KERN
   COUNTY...
   ----SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE OVERVIEW----
   THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE OFFER LITTLE
   OVERALL CHANGE REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN
   SUPPORTING THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. UPSTREAM OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AN EWD MOTION OF
   THE CENTER OF A SFC ANTICYCLONE COVERING PARTS OF THE PACIFIC HIGH
   SEAS. THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO FOSTER ENEWD BRANCHING OF A RIDGE
   AXIS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE CENTER INTO PARTS OF THE NWRN CONUS. AS A
   N/S-ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ALIGNING WITH THE LOWER CO
   RIVER VALLEY STRENGTHENS...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
   ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA. THIS WILL ACCELERATE GENERALLY NLY FLOW
   THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WITH NWLY TO NELY WINDS
   STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
   THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT A STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE
   FLOW COMPONENT ALONG PARTS OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE FAR
   WRN VENTURA COUNTY COASTLINES FOLLOWING THE DESCENT OF THIS FLOW IN
   THE LEE OF THE SANTA YNEZ MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE
   EFFECTS/BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING WILL AUGMENT SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE
   LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME TO SUPPORT A DRYING AIR MASS.

   ----WINDS----
   THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG NWLY TO NELY SFC WINDS
   INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 35-50 MPH THROUGH THE
   DAY TODAY...WITH THESE WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
   TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON A LOCALIZED
   BASIS THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. THE ANTICIPATION OF THESE
   STRONG WINDS IS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST 4-KM NAM GUIDANCE...ALONG
   WITH OTHER HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING 4-KM AFWA
   ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT.

   ----RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND TEMPERATURES----
   AFTER RH VALUES FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS
   DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT
   AND DECREASING PW WILL KEEP RH VALUES CRITICALLY LOW INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S AND
   70S.

   ----FUELS----
   FUELS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
   IN PLACE AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS.
   GIVEN THE STATE OF THE FUELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WINDS/LOW
   RH WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO WARRANT CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER DESIGNATION.

   ...SURROUNDING THE ERN CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NV...CNTRL/SRN/WRN AZ...SWRN/S-CNTRL NM...CNTRL/N-CNTRL/ERN
   CO...CNTRL/S-CNTRL WY...THE NWRN HALF OF UT...
   MANY AREAS W OF A CNTRL/SRN-HIGH-PLAINS LEE TROUGH WILL EXPERIENCE
   CRITICALLY LOW RH GIVEN A DRY AIR MASS AND DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING
   VERTICAL MIXING. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL
   FLOW IN MANY AREAS...CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
   UNLIKELY IN COMBINATION WITH THESE LOW RH VALUES. AN EXCEPTION IS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/N-CNTRL CO...WHERE CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
   CONDITIONS COULD ENSUE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THESE AREAS IN
   CNTRL/N-CNTRL CO...MORE LIMITED FUEL DRYNESS MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT...AND RELATIVELY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH MAY
   ALSO MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

   ALSO OF NOTE...THE AFOREMENTIONED CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
   ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL WY. HOWEVER...COORDINATION
   WITH THE RIVERTON WY AND CHEYENNE WY WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES
   SUGGESTS THAT FUELS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY DRY ACROSS THESE AREAS TO
   EXTEND THE CRITICAL NWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL WY AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..COHEN.. 06/19/2013

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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