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Jun 24, 2017 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 24 17:01:04 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170624 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20170624 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS22 KWNS 241656

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

   ..Cohen.. 06/24/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

   Upper ridging which has persisted across the western CONUS for the
   last week is expected to begin breaking down on Sunday as a
   shortwave trough approaches its northern periphery late Sunday
   evening/early Monday morning. Increasing mid-level moisture and
   forcing for ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development
   across northern CA and central OR. Some of these thunderstorms may
   be dry (discussed in more detail below). Central/eastern CONUS
   troughing will remain largely in place throughout the day before
   becoming a bit more progressive late in the period in response to
   the aforementioned shortwave trough. At the surface, ridging over
   the Plains will persist while expanding eastward into the MS valley.
   A cold front extending from central TX eastward across the Southeast
   states will become increasingly diffuse.

   ...Northern CA/Central OR...
   Model guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough will
   approach the northern CA coast late Sunday night/early Monday
   morning with a subtle lead disturbance moving through the region
   Sunday afternoon. Increased mid-level moisture associated with the
   approaching system will result in modest instability and the
   potential for isolated thunderstorms, particularly over the higher
   terrain. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer and precipitable
   water values around 0.75", most of these storms will produce little
   to no precipitation at the surface. While fuels are not overly dry,
   above-average ERCs and below-average 100-hr dead fuel moisture have
   been observed across the region, suggesting fuels are marginally
   supportive of fire spread. Resulting combination of isolated dry
   thunderstorms and modestly receptive fuels will support increased
   fire danger and an isolated dry thunderstorm area has been
   delineated to address this threat.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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