ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 021935

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Sat Sep 02 2017

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
   DAKOTAS...SOUTHEAST MT...NORTHEAST WY...

   ...Portions of the northern Plains and vicinity...
   The Critical area has been expanded to encompass a broader portion
   of the northern High Plains. The latest multi-model consensus
   suggests that northwest surface winds of 20-25 mph with higher gusts
   will be common across the expanded Critical area, as diurnally
   enhanced vertical mixing manifests stronger flow aloft at the
   surface amid a tight pressure gradient. Combining with these winds,
   RH around 13-20 percent is expected -- lowest readings across
   eastern WY and western SD. With dry fuels -- especially fine 
   fuels -- in place across the area, critical fire-weather conditions
   are expected.

   The eastern portion of the surrounding Elevated area has been
   expanded eastward. Across areas added to Elevated designation, the
   latest model guidance indicates west to northwest winds of 15-25 mph
   combining with minimum RH of 15-25 percent. However, across these
   areas, the stronger winds are expected to be displaced to the north
   of the lower RH -- limiting the critical fire-weather risk.

   ...Portions of the northern Rockies in northern MT around the
   Continental Divide...
   An Elevated fire-weather area has been included. As a mid-level
   wind-speed maximum grazes the northern Rockies in proximity to the
   international border region, locally enhanced surface winds are
   expected over the mountains intercepting the stronger flow aloft.
   This includes areas around the Continental Divide. Westerly surface
   winds of 15-20 mph and higher gusts are expected to combine with RH
   around 15-25 percent amidst dry fuels to support the added Elevated
   fire-weather area. Winds are forecast to abruptly shift to the
   northeast to east following the passage of a sharp cold front during
   the evening -- remaining gusty into the overnight hours. This wind
   shift could act to re-direct any ongoing fires.

   ..Cohen.. 09/02/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0310 AM CDT Sat Sep 02 2017/

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad mid-level ridging persists across the western United States
   Day 2/Sunday as a surface low and its associated cold front slide
   southward/southeastward along the eastern periphery of the ridge
   across portions of the Northern Rockies. 

   ...Eastern Montana and the Western Dakotas...
   Timing of the aforementioned frontal passage during the afternoon
   will allow strong/gusty post-frontal winds to overlap an area of low
   RH values (generally less than 20%, locally less than 15%) and
   antecedently dry fuels. Critical fire weather conditions are likely
   across eastern MT into northwest SD and southwest ND where latest
   guidance continues to suggest sustained surface winds in excess of
   20 mph. An elevated threat exists surrounding the critical area,
   where wind speeds are currently expected to generally remain below
   20 mph. 

   ...Southern Oregon...
   Deep-layer moisture will continue to advect northward from Tropical
   Cyclone Lidia Sunday perhaps reaching southern Oregon by the
   afternoon. However, low confidence in spatiotemporal evolution of
   lightning threat across this area precludes introduction of a dry
   thunder fire weather threat with this outlook.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)