ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190803

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN UT...SWRN CO...WRN
   NM...NRN/E-CNTRL AZ...EXTREME SERN NV...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL MEANDER ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
   ROCKIES...WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER AREA
   OF FLOW SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE CENTER MAINTAIN MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW
   IN THE MID LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL PIVOT AROUND THE CYCLONE FROM MT INTO ADJACENT SRN
   CANADA...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOT THROUGH THE SRN
   AND WRN SEMICIRCLES OF THE CYCLONE. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL CONUS. THESE FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE
   OF ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN STATES...WHICH
   WILL OVERLIE DRY SFC CONDITIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS TO SUPPORT A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.

   ...PORTIONS OF SRN UT...SWRN CO...WRN NM...NRN/E-CNTRL AZ...EXTREME
   SERN NV...
   THE AFOREMENTIONED ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT
   SSWLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AS VERTICAL MIXING STRENGTHENS
   THROUGH THE DAY AND ALLOWS THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO BE MANIFESTED
   AT THE SFC. AND...WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...RH VALUES ARE
   EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 5-10 PERCENT AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
   SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AND 90S. THE PRESENCE OF
   DRY/VERY DRY FUELS WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT...RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DESIGNATION.

   ...SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NV...SRN/WRN
   AZ...SRN/CNTRL/ERN/NRN NM...WRN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...SWRN
   KS...SRN/WRN CO...SRN/CNTRL/ERN UT...
   ----STRONG WIND/LOW RH POTENTIAL----
   RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CRITICALLY LOW IN MANY AREAS TO THE
   W OF A CNTRL/SRN-HIGH-PLAINS LEE TROUGH WHERE A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE
   PRESENT. BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND DRYING WILL BE EXACERBATED BY
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ELEVATED TO PERHAPS
   BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...AS SLY
   TO SWLY SFC WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
   HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS OUTSIDE OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA IS LIMITED OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER
   LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BEING PRESENT. AS SUCH...CRITICAL DESIGNATION HAS
   NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

   ----DRY-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN SRN NM----
   AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL CONUS...THE
   SLY FLOW COMPONENT W OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRAW MODEST AMOUNTS OF
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF SRN NM WHERE DRY SFC CONDITIONS
   WILL EXIST. MARGINAL BUOYANCY AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY PROMOTE
   ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NM.
   THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN LIMITED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OWING TO
   RELATIVELY LOW PW AND DEEP SFC-BASED MIXED LAYERS SUPPORTING
   SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION. SOME RISK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST.
   HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
   ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
   SUCH...A DRY-THUNDERSTORM CRITICAL AREA IS NOT WARRANTED.

   ...COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA FROM THE ERN
   TWO-THIRDS OF SANTA BARBARA COUNTY EWD TO NWRN/N-CNTRL LOS ANGELES
   COUNTY...
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE FROM D1/WED INTO D2/THU AS A
   DRY AIR MASS PERSISTS...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON
   ON D2/THU EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
   MIDDLE TEENS. POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT. LOCALLY STRONG
   NWLY TO NELY SFC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU MORNING...STRONGEST
   THROUGH FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   INITIALLY BE TIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   DECREASING DURING THE DAY...AS THE BULK OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL
   SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AN OVERALL SLACKENING OF THE SFC PRESSURE
   GRADIENT. WHILE VERY DRY FUELS WILL COMBINE WITH THESE WINDS AND RH
   VALUES TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TO PERHAPS BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS...THE ANTICIPATED LOCALIZED/BRIEF NATURE OF ANY
   STRONG-WIND THREAT PRECLUDES DESIGNATION OF A CRITICAL AREA AT THIS
   TIME.

   ..COHEN.. 06/19/2013

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)