ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161756
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
   EXPANDED CRITICAL AREA SLIGHTLY SWD AND WWD. ADDED SEE TEXT FOR
   CNTRL NV. 
   
   ...SRN NV ACROSS NRN AZ...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPANDED THE
   CRITICAL SLIGHTLY SWD AND WWD AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE
   DURATION OF THE CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS. ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED WIND
   SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG INTO THE EVENING AS THE STRONG FLOW
   AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THIS REGION. WINDS AND RH ALSO
   MEET CRITICAL ACROSS MOST OF SWRN UT. HOWEVER...LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES NON-CRITICAL FUELS. 
   
   ...CNTRL NV...
   SUSTAINED WLY/SWLY WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 20 MPH
   FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE
   IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AT THIS TIME. LIMITED DURATION OF THE STRONG
   WINDS PRECLUDES CRITICAL RISK ISSUANCE BUT ISOLATED/BRIEFLY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A
   POSSIBLE UPGRADE IS SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..MOSIER.. 05/16/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0350 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IS BEING FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
   WORK WEEK AS A DEVELOPING PACIFIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE
   WEST COAST...MOVES OVER THE WRN STATES ON THURSDAY...AND A BROAD
   DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. WEAK TROUGHING
   WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
   FL.
   
   ...SRN NV ACROSS NRN AZ...
   MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE ADVANCE OF THE
   NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONGER WIND FIELDS
   CROSSING THE WEST COAST DURING THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MORE
   PROGRESSIVE AND COVERS A LARGER AREA THAN THE MOST RECENT
   DISTURBANCE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES IN THE CRITICAL
   RISK AREA WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S F IN THE LOWER
   ELEVATIONS WITH 70S AND 80S F IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ENSEMBLE
   FORECASTS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICT VERY LIMITED OVERNIGHT RH
   RECOVERY AND THUS MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL QUICKLY BELOW 10
   PERCENT WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF
   12-17 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
   GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE BY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN
   RELATIVELY STRONG INTO THE EVENING AS STRONGER FLOW IN THE BASE OF
   THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN NV AND NRN AZ
   DURING THIS TIME. ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS AND ANTECEDENT SEVERE
   DROUGHT WILL EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS AND FIRE
   GROWTH THUS WARRANTING THE CRITICAL RISK AREA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)