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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3 - 8 FW Outlook >
May 5, 2016 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu May 5 19:03:02 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160505 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20160505 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 35,973 863,186 El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Sierra Vista, AZ...Alamogordo, NM...Douglas, AZ...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 051858

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2016

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SERN AZ...SRN/CNTRL
   NM...AND FAR W TX...

   ...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   THE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY WWD ACROSS PARTS OF
   SERN AZ. THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT SWLY SFC
   WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH OF 10-15 PERCENT
   AMIDST DRY FUELS ACROSS AREAS ADDED TO CRITICAL DESIGNATION.

   AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   SERN NM INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SWRN TX. THE LATEST MODEL
   GUIDANCE INDICATES MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCING OVER THIS AREA
   DURING PEAK HEATING...INDICATIVE OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT. SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY ARE
   FORECAST TO OCCUR BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHILE A
   WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
   AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL
   GUIDANCE...OFFERS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS. SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER FLOW/STORM MOTIONS...ALONG WITH
   PW AROUND 0.5-0.8 INCH AND AMPLE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION...WILL
   SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.

   THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.

   ...PORTIONS OF SRN FL...
   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

   ..COHEN.. 05/05/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0332 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS ON
   D2/FRI. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH THESE FEATURES THROUGH THE
   PERIOD. ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
   WRN CONUS WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS FRI AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
   WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP FRI AFTERNOON FROM
   SERN AZ INTO PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL NM AND FAR W TX. SUSTAINED SLY TO
   SWLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
   AS A MID-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN
   CONUS MOVES OVER THIS REGION. DAYTIME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   SHOULD ALLOW DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF THE ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT
   TO THE SFC. SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS A BROADER PORTION OF ERN AZ...NM...
   AND FAR W TX. LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FINE FUELS REMAIN
   SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD. WHILE THERE IS SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON D2/FRI ACROSS
   PARTS OF NM...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INITIATION /IF IT OCCURS AT
   ALL/ SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING WHEN
   ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE DIMINISHING.
   THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA FOR
   PORTIONS OF NM AT THIS TIME.

   ...PORTIONS OF SRN FL...
   LOCALLY ELEVATED METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
   MATERIALIZE FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN FL. AS TEMPERATURES
   WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
   REMAINS OVER THE REGION...RH VALUES MAY FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR
   SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   MARGINAL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. IN ADDITION...FUELS MAY ALSO
   NOT BE OVERLY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE STARTS...AS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
   SRN FL RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ON WED. GIVEN THESE
   LIMITING FACTORS...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED AN ELEVATED AREA FOR ANY
   PORTION OF SRN FL AT THIS TIME.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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