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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3-8 FW Outlook >
Apr 17, 2014 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 17 16:50:04 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140417 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20140417 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 171648

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

   NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN AZ AND NWRN NM CONTINUES
   BASED ON THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO CNTRL/SRN
   WY...LOCALIZED AREAS OF MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LEE TROUGHING BOLSTERS THE BACKGROUND
   PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SFC WINDS INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF A
   DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD PREVENT A GREATER FIRE WEATHER RISK FROM
   EVOLVING OVER THE PLAINS...WHEREAS THE LACK OF FAVORABLY DRY FUELS
   FOR FIRE SPREAD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK FARTHER WEST INTO WY.

   ..COHEN.. 04/17/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0354 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON
   FRIDAY...WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NW
   INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
   ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE SFC FEATURES AND THE RESULTING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
   INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN LARGELY DISPLACED FROM AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW
   RH...LIMITING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVERALL...THOUGH ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SRN TROUGH ACROSS PARTS
   OF NM/AZ.

   ...ERN AZ...NM...
   GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
   TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM. THE GREATEST RISK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS
   EXPECTED FROM NERN AZ INTO NWRN NM...WHERE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN
   BELOW 0.50 INCHES DURING THE DAY AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
   WELL-MIXED AND DRY. FORECAST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
   CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT IS SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM
   DELINEATION IN THIS AREA.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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Page last modified: April 17, 2014
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