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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3 - 8 FW Outlook >
Aug 30, 2016 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 30 19:10:03 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160830 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20160830 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 301905

   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   MINIMAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM AND ELEVATED AREAS FOR D2/WED BASED ON LATEST
   SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
   ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.

   ..GLEASON.. 08/30/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0354 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IN THE MID LEVELS...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER PORTIONS OF THE
   WRN CONUS...WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS...AND
   CYCLONIC FLOW OVERLIES THE NORTHEAST. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN
   THE WRN-CONUS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MODESTLY ENHANCED SWLY
   FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN AND VICINITY.
   THIS PATTERN WILL ENCOURAGE SFC TROUGHING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL
   MT...LOCALLY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM PARTS OF ERN MT
   INTO NERN WY.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN TO PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
   AND VICINITY...
   DIURNALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING INTO THE MODESTLY ENHANCED FLOW
   ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT SSWLY TO SWLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20
   MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS -- AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN
   NV...NWRN UT...NERN CA...SERN ORE...SRN ID...AND SWRN MT. THESE
   WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 10-20 PERCENT AND DRY
   FUELS IN MANY AREAS TO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON A SPOTTY
   BASIS. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   WHERE CRITICAL RH MATERIALIZES SHOULD MITIGATE THE CRITICAL
   FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL.

   ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NV...NWRN UT...CNTRL/SRN
   ID...AND SWRN MT...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ON
   THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC-FLOW AREA. DIURNALLY
   ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT AMIDST PW AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCH AND DEEP/WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYERS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE...AIDED
   BY MODERATE STORM MOTIONS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO
   ISOLATED.

   ...PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND NERN WY...
   THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLY TO SSELY
   SFC WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE LIMITED...SUCH
   THAT DIURNALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RH
   FALLING TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT AMIDST DRY FUELS. ELEVATED TO
   BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
   HOWEVER...WITHOUT AN EVEN DRIER ANTECEDENT AIR MASS...ANY CRITICAL
   RISK SHOULD BE BRIEF/SPOTTY/MARGINAL.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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