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Mesoscale Discussion 13
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...LA INTO SRN MS AND FAR SWRN AL LATE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 110541Z - 110745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND COULD INTENSIFY
   A BIT...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW FOR A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
   STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
   THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS
   MOISTENING LOW LEVELS. MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
   TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SRN LA AND INTO SRN MS...WHERE GPS
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE APPROACHING 1.60 INCHES. 

   CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SHOW AN EVENTUAL CONSOLIDATION OF
   STRONGER ECHOES ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MAINLY IN THE 9-12 Z
   PERIOD ACROSS SERN LA...SRN MS AND INTO SRN AL BY EARLY MORNING.
   CONDITIONALLY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   ROTATION WITHIN ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT CAN DEVELOP...WITH A
   MARGINAL WIND OR TORNADO THREAT WHERE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
   PARCELS REMAIN UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WILL BE WHERE INSTABILITY IS WEAKEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY
   MONITORED TONIGHT FOR ANY DEVELOPING THREAT SHOULD A MORE ORGANIZED
   BAND OF STORMS MATERIALIZE.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 01/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   29258979 29069002 28999042 28989094 29189122 29419166
               29499216 29559272 29689295 30009293 31809183 32219108
               32469018 32528991 32478952 32318869 32038796 31858789
               31698791 31328808 29488952 29258979 

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Page last modified: March 20, 2014
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