|
Mesoscale Discussion 154 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281932Z - 282130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLD STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND UNDERGO SOME
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS. A SMALL HAIL
THREAT AND/OR A STRONG WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE
UPDRAFTS AND A CONDITIONAL WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE
SLOWLY INCREASING.
DISCUSSION...THE LAST FEW HOURS OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE
SHOWN A SIZABLE BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THIS SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING HAS LOCALLY BOOSTED
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FURTHERED DESTABILIZATION. 19Z SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY SHOW TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID 60S
WITH LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS. DESPITE THE MODEST SURFACE TEMPS...COOL
TEMPS ALOFT /AOB -20 DEG C AT H5/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW
HAVE YIELDED MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE. INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH PT. CONCEPTION BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO AT LEAST
AGITATE CONVECTION AND LEAD TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND A
FEW STORMS PERHAPS CAPABLE OF A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT. TERRAIN
CHANNELED BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND MAY SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL
UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.
..SMITH/MEAD.. 02/28/2014
ATTN...WFO...VEF...HNX...
LAT...LON 35151869 36512033 37412078 37672017 37301948 35581763
35051808 35151869
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|