MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0632 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE TX...NRN LA...SRN AR AND ADJACENT AREAS
   OF THE MS DELTA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 151232Z - 151630Z
   
   SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
   THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
   RATES OF .1 TO .3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
   
   DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH NOW TURNING
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATING UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX EAST NORTHEASTWARD
   TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION THROUGH THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME. 
   COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUING RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY
   FLOW...ABOVE A COLD/STABLE SURFACE BASED LAYER ENTRENCHED TO THE
   NORTH OF A STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTH
   CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD.  CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES ARE
   LIKELY AS MODEST STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE YIELDS WEAK
   CAPE...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THAT COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
   LIGHTNING /WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
   PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS/.  THOUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN BELOW 700
   MB WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AT LEAST A SHALLOW SURFACE BASED LAYER
   IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS AFFECTED BY
   CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...TO THE NORTH OF A LINE ROUGHLY FROM LONGVIEW
   TX THROUGH SHREVEPORT AND MONROE LA...INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND THE
   MISSISSIPPI DELTA...THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY.  SIGNIFICANT ICING IS
   POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ON VEGETATION...POWER LINES AND ELEVATED ROAD
   SURFACES...AS GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/15/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   32649512 33379385 34029266 33939136 33189093 32629137
               32159294 31909420 31939510 32649512