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Mesoscale Discussion 46
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0046
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of central and eastern AZ...southern
   NM...the Trans-Pecos region of far west TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142134Z - 150000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for isolated strong thunderstorms will affect the
   region into the evening hours. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Recycled moisture along the southwestern rim of a broad
   surface anticyclone positioned over the Central States is combining
   with sufficient diurnal heating to support modest destabilization
   across the area. Visible imagery highlights arcs of deepening
   convective development from the Mogollon Rim toward the southeast AZ
   mountains and eastward across southwest NM. This activity is being
   encouraged by large-scale ascent preceding a midlevel cyclone
   presently crossing the Baja Peninsula, and is being further aided by
   diurnally enhanced orographic circulations. Additional diurnal
   heating amidst the weakly capped environment will likely foster an
   increase in convective coverage/intensity during the next few hours,
   with scattered thunderstorms spreading across the area into the
   evening hours. For areas from south-central NM to portions of the TX
   Trans-Pecos region, the risk for storms could be delayed until the
   early evening hours.

   The presence of around 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear could
   support a few sustained/organized convective elements -- perhaps
   including small bowing segments and possibly transient supercell
   structures. Locally strong winds gusts and small hail should be the
   primary concerns with this activity, though a few sporadic,
   marginally severe thunderstorms could occur. The overall dearth of
   buoyancy attributable to limited boundary-layer moisture should
   temper convective intensity. However, strong-storm potential will
   likely persist into the evening hours -- especially from southern NM
   into far West TX -- as the midlevel cyclone advances eastward.

   ..Cohen/Hart.. 01/14/2017


   LAT...LON   31361040 32841095 34201250 34621320 34981284 34601075
               33920827 32650608 31650514 30760499 30740544 31570647
               31720739 31630807 31290813 31230929 31361040 

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