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Mesoscale Discussion 46
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0538 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NC/NORTHERN SC

   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

   VALID 221138Z - 221645Z

   SUMMARY...A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED
   ACROSS SOUTHERN NC/FAR NORTHERN SC THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE
   GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE NC
   PIEDMONT AND FAR NORTHERN SC WHERE HOURLY ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD
   REACH OR EXCEED 0.05 IN/HR FOR A MULTI-HOUR DURATION.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS
   NC/NORTHERN SC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN APPROACHING BAND OF MORE
   CONSEQUENTIAL PRECIPITATION NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL GA AS PER
   INFRARED SATELLITE/REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS. LATEST
   OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SURFACE WET-BULB FREEZING LINE AS OF
   11Z/6AM EST GENERALLY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST...JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC
   BORDER VICINITY. NEAR/NORTH OF THIS WET-BULB FREEZING
   LINE...RAP/HRRR-BASED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERMAL PROFILES WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY CHARACTERIZED BY SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES BENEATH A WARMING FULL/PARTIAL MELTING LAYER BASED
   AROUND/JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF SLEET
   AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN
   AND GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PART OF THE NC PIEDMONT AND FAR NORTHERN SC/PIEDMONT.

   ..GUYER.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35557927 35117895 34667920 34248031 34448098 34838265
               35158270 35298241 35308147 35458041 35557927 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2016
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