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Mesoscale Discussion 46
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0924 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...RI...ERN MA...ERN NH...AND MUCH OF MAINE

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 271524Z - 272030Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR WILL
   CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z ACROSS RI...ERN MA...ERN NH...AND MUCH
   OF MAINE. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT NWD WITH TIME.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 15Z INDICATES A LOW SE OF MA WITH A
   MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 978 MB...MOVING NEWD WITH TIME. A CLOSED
   UPPER LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS LOCATED JUST
   OFFSHORE THE RI/MA COAST...ALSO MOVING NEWD. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
   AND DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ARE THE PRIMARY
   FEATURES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING N/S ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

   LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG
   THE COAST FROM MAINE TO MA WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
   THE SFC LOW OFF THE MA COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN
   CANADIAN PROVINCES. AS BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER LOW MOVE NEWD THROUGH
   20Z...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NWD AWAY
   FROM RI AND ERN MA...AND TOWARDS ERN NH AND MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN MAINE.
   SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER 20Z AS THE SFC LOW
   FILLS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION...AND MID-LEVEL
   FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS NWD AND AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA.

   ..GLEASON/PETERS.. 01/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...

   LAT...LON   41397175 42567179 44637103 46056883 46566782 45646757
               45146706 44676710 44426739 44116834 43776965 42947057
               41357043 41397175 

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Page last modified: January 27, 2015
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