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Mesoscale Discussion 48
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0737 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA AND KEYS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 221337Z - 221600Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR
   TWO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
   MIDDAY...INITIALLY ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL
   PENINSULA AND KEYS VICINITY. DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND RELATED STRONG JET STREAK
   WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES WITH INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR
   ACROSS MUCH OF FL. AN EASTWARD-MOVING SQUALL LINE OVER THE EASTERN
   GULF OF MEXICO IMMEDIATELY PRECEDES A COLD FRONT...WITH A
   MARITIME-RELATED WARM FRONT NEARING WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
   PENINSULA. IN PARTICULAR...THE 12Z KEY WEST OBSERVED SOUNDING
   SAMPLED A 14.3 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO AND NEARLY 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE
   WATER...INDICATIVE OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL
   QUICKLY DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   HALF OF THE PENINSULA TODAY. CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND THE INITIALLY
   STABLE/RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE
   PENINSULA CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
   RISK. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE INLAND-ADVANCING WARM/MOIST SECTOR AND
   INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCING/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
   POTENTIAL INCLUDING A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO MIDDAY WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/22/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29278288 29358211 28888174 28368176 27198173 26518110
               26288025 25988003 25078023 24528076 24268183 24528228
               25148197 25928201 27928319 28898322 29278288 

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Page last modified: January 22, 2016
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