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Mesoscale Discussion 48
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1013 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SE IA...NE MO...NRN IL

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 010413Z - 011015Z

   SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
   EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL IA...SE IA...NE MO
   EWD INTO NRN IL. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME
   LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD AREA. DUE TO SFC TEMPS BEING NEAR
   FREEZING...IMPACTS OF ANY HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER WCNTRL
   KS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SFC
   LOW ENEWD TO THE VICINITY OF OMAHA NEB AND DES MOINES IA. POCKETS OF
   MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE ALREADY ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY FROM SE NEB INTO SCNTRL IA AND FAR NRN MO. THIS IS IN
   RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40
   TO 50 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
   MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SE IA INTO NRN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
   HELPING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF SNOW ARE
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN CNTRL AND SRN IA...SPREADING
   SLOWLY EWD INTO NRN IL OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC
   TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD
   AREA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AS
   WET-BULBING AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH
   NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE BANDS. THE
   POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NRN IL
   BEING IMPACTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPS
   NEAR FREEZING...THE IMPACT OF ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

   ..BROYLES.. 02/01/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41008848 40578966 40139233 40349355 40879390 41629395
               42319323 42149116 41848878 41008848 

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Page last modified: February 01, 2015
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