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Mesoscale Discussion 48
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0048
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

   Areas affected...west-central KS eastward into parts of central and
   north-central KS

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 150755Z - 151400Z

   SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates exceeding 0.05 inch per 3 hours are
   forecast to gradually develop northward through the discussion area
   during the 08 UTC - 14 UTC period.  The heaviest 3-hourly rates
   (0.10-0.20 inch) will likely be confined to south of I-70 and begin
   to occur generally after 10 UTC.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic indicates a northward advancing shield of
   moderate precipitation ---surface observations confirm hourly
   freezing rain rates 0.05-0.20 inch--- moving across the northeastern
   TX and OK Panhandles and eastward along the OK/KS border as of 0755
   UTC.  The precipitation is occurring atop a shallow sub-freezing
   near-surface layer ---reference the 00 UTC DDC raob--- and is in
   response to increased forcing for ascent via low-level
   warm-air-advection and moisture flux processes and related to the
   approaching mid-level low/trough located over northwestern Mexico
   and the Desert Southwest. 

   Short-term models suggest precipitation will expand northward into
   the discussion area tonight into the early morning.  The locally
   heavier rates will be associated with convective showers south of
   I-70 with lighter freezing rain amounts associated within the
   peripheral areas of the rain shield.  Forecast soundings show the
   shallow cold wedge being maintained through 14 UTC and supportive of
   a freezing-rain precipitation type.

   ..Smith.. 01/15/2017


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39629667 39069624 38359643 37910063 38210107 38790110
               39290082 39839754 39629667 

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Page last modified: January 15, 2017
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