MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1143 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 251743Z - 252145Z
   
   SUMMARY...A 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS
   THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...COMMENCING BY AROUND 20-21Z...WHICH
   COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ACROSS THE
   CHARLOTTE...WINSTON-SALEM...FAYETTEVILLE AND RALEIGH-DURHAM
   METROPOLITAN AREAS.
   
   DISCUSSION...AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM
   APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRENGTHENING OF WEST
   SOUTHWESTERLY 850 FLOW IS NOW UNDERWAY TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS...ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. 
   MODELS INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THIS LOW-LEVEL JET /TO
   55-65 KT/ IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 21-22Z...WITH THE JET CORE ELONGATING
   EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT.  THIS LIKELY
   WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING AND
   BROAD...STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ABOVE A LINGERING
   SUB-FREEZING SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS.  AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   SATURATE...A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BUT
   WARMING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
   MAINLY FREEZING RAIN.  SIZABLE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS
   MAY ALSO HINDER PRECIPITATION RATES INITIALLY...BUT EVAPORATIVE
   COOLING WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S. 
   WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTIVE OF PRECIPITATION RATES UP TO AROUND .10
   INCH PER HOUR...SIGNIFICANT ICING APPEARS POSSIBLE ON VEGETATION...
   POWER LINES AND MOST UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/25/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   35588074 36038017 36297952 36407867 36377742 35797736
               35247833 34797930 34818024 35168084 35588074