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Mesoscale Discussion 56
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 AM CST SUN FEB 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021758Z - 022000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INTENSIFY BY 20-22Z...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR
   TORNADOES.  AT THIS POINT A WATCH STILL DOES NOT APPEAR
   PROBABLE...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN DEEPENING...WITH AN
   INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STRIKES EVIDENT IN STRONGER CELLS NOW FORMING
   ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY STILL
   APPEARS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
   WEAK TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND DESTABILIZATION
   ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTENING...ABOVE A RESIDUAL SHALLOW RELATIVELY
   STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER.  DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK...IT
   REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER INSOLATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MODIFY THIS
   LAYER SUBSTANTIALLY.  HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   PROGRESSING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING OF
   SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW TO 40-50 KT...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING
   STORM TRENDS BY THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME.

   IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE LAYER SHEAR...ENLARGEMENT OF
   CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL
   FOR THE EVOLUTION OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC UPDRAFT ROTATION.  IF
   THIS OCCURS...STORM-SCALE DYNAMIC FORCING COULD POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTE
   TO AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR TORNADOES...EVEN WITHOUT MUCH FURTHER
   MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MAINLY IN A CORRIDOR NEAR/JUST
   SOUTH OF ALEXANDRIA LA INTO THE JACKSON MS AREA.  THIS IS JUST SOUTH
   OF THE STALLED/SLOW MOVING SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR WHICH
   HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...WHICH
   PROVIDES THE NORTHERN LIMIT OF ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

   OTHERWISE...THE LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGER
   CAPE SEEMS TO MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.  AND DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS LONG AS STRONGER STORMS REMAIN
   RELATIVELY DISCRETE.

   ..KERR/HART.. 02/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31629240 31809212 32049104 32409041 32928962 32648900
               31438915 31008961 30459148 30709265 31629240 

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Page last modified: February 02, 2014
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