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Mesoscale Discussion 56
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0856 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 230256Z - 230800Z

   SUMMARY...SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL INCREASE WITHIN A CONSOLIDATING
   BAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL AROUND 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
   /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES/ IS EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR DEPICT AN EXPANSIVE
   SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...IN RESPONSE
   TO BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MATURING
   CYCLONE. SFC PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2-3 MB/HR NOTED ALONG THE NC/VA
   COASTS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW SIGNAL A GROWING MASS RESPONSE
   FROM THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...PRESSURE FALLS
   AROUND 2 MB/HR ALONG/NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE/POTOMAC ARE LIKELY
   SIGNALING STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING
   850-700 MB LOW. AMPLIFYING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS WILL FURTHER
   AID ASCENT TO BOLSTER SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   INDEED...KAKQ/KDOX INDICATE SUBTLE ENHANCEMENTS OF SPECIFIC
   DIFFERENTIAL PHASE /KDP/ WITHIN THE -10 TO -20 C LAYER...LIKELY
   SIGNALING IMPROVED ASCENT/CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT. AS SUCH CONDITIONS
   EXPAND N/NWWD IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONSOLIDATE ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD FURTHER DETERIORATE AS SNOWFALL
   RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR /WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES/
   DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SMALL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

   ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SOME MIXING WITH SLEET
   MAY OCCUR...NOTED IN KDOX/KAKQ CC DATA AND A FEW MPING REPORTS. SUCH
   MIXING WOULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER...HEAVY
   PRECIPITATION AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING DUE TO MELTING HYDROMETEORS
   WILL SERVE TO SLOW/STOP THE N/NWWD PROGRESSION OF THIS WARM LAYER.

   ..PICCA.. 01/23/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   39647820 40097599 40127514 40067447 39927421 39167474
               38687544 38257694 37547766 37287789 37257843 37697882
               38327882 38627869 38927863 39247850 39647820 

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Page last modified: January 23, 2016
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