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Mesoscale Discussion 334
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO PARTS
   OF NW TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 131726Z - 131900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE BY 19-20Z ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE
   HEATING AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHWEST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL
   OKLAHOMA.  AND AN INCREASINGLY WELL DEFINED DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
   ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS IT DOES...COINCIDING WITH STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...IT
   APPEARS PROBABLE THAT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL WEAKEN
   INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE INITIATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
   STORMS BY AROUND 19-20Z...IF NOT BEFORE.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE CAPE...AND MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER
   MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR /500 MB WIND ON THE ORDER OF 40-50
   KT/...DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY...AT LEAST
   INITIALLY.

   LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT INITIALLY...BUT ACTIVITY
   PROPAGATING OFF...AND OUT AHEAD OF...THE DRYLINE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
   BY INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGER
   CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
   EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...AS THE SOUTHWARD
   SURGING COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE...AN UPSCALE GROWING SQUALL
   LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED MAINLY BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE
   WIND AND HAIL.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33749915 35409826 36849765 36789533 35779569 34259702
               33749915 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2014
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