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Mesoscale Discussion 334
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 AM CDT SAT APR 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 77...

   VALID 021242Z - 021415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 77
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE
   THIS MORNING ACROSS THE N-CNTRL PART OF THE FL PENINSULA.  IT
   APPEARS THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST RISK WILL OCCUR NEAR THE W COAST AS
   STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS WITHIN A LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE MOVE INTO
   THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN THE
   TRANSITION FROM A PARALLEL STRATIFORM ORIENTATION TSTM BAND TO A
   LEAD-STRATIFORM CONFIGURATION ACROSS N FL.  THIS TRANSITION HAS
   LIKELY LED TO DELETERIOUS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OWING IN
   PART TO SATURATED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PROFILES /I.E. POOR LAPSE
   RATES/.  DESPITE THESE FACTORS LIMITING CONVECTIVE WIND
   POTENTIAL...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
   NERN GULF/N FL AND SRN GA VICINITY THIS MORNING.  LARGE-SCALE
   SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AT
   LEAST MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.  THE 12Z TBW
   RAOB SHOWED STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /65 KT/ AND AMPLE BUOYANCY /1000
   J PER KG MUCAPE/ FOR AT LEAST LOW TSTM WIND GUST POTENTIAL THIS
   MORNING.  GIVEN THE DISTINCT DIFFERENCE IN CONVECTIVE CHARACTER WITH
   THE TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN GULF COMPARED TO THE LEAD-STRATIFORM
   CHARACTER OF THE STORMS OVER N FL --RESPONSIBLE FOR NO DAMAGING WIND
   REPORTS SO FAR-- CURRENTLY THINKING A RELATIVELY HIGHER RISK FOR
   STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY OVER
   THE W COAST NEAR AND N OF TPA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS TEMPS
   SLOWLY WARM AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GRADUALLY STEEPEN.

   ..SMITH.. 04/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28678269 28618219 28388189 27968224 27858306 28678269 

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Page last modified: April 02, 2016
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