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Mesoscale Discussion 334
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0334
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1026 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...ADJACENT RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA
   OF TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171526Z - 171730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING WITH
   CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  A SEVERE
   WEATHER WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT ONE MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...IF/WHEN AN
   APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE
   CERTAIN.

   DISCUSSION...A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   NOW WELL UNDERWAY NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF DEL RIO.  THIS APPEARS
   TO BE LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST LOW-LEVEL
   UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU...PERHAPS AIDED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION...DOWNSTREAM OF LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING WITHIN THE
   SUBTROPICAL STREAM ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU.  DEVELOPMENT
   GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR...BETWEEN THE STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW...AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH. 
   HOWEVER...MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A RICH LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   SIZABLE CAPE...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIIONAL
   SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   INTO THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
   CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LARGER
   STORM CLUSTER WHICH COULD SUPPORT AN EXPANDING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE
   COLD POOL.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER
   WEAK...BUT THE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
   EASTWARD ALONG A RESIDUAL...DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

   ..KERR/HART.. 04/17/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29640119 30470092 31079828 30379761 29379837 29030062
               29640119 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2015
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