MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1001 AM CDT WED APR 01 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND N FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 011501Z - 011700Z
   
   STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SUPERCELLS...AND A WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY FROM 16-18Z.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A STALLED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY CAPE CANAVERAL TO ORLANDO TO JUST S OF CEDAR
   KEY.  WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE CLOUDS
   ACROSS N FL HELP MAINTAIN THE BOUNDARY THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
    NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME POSSIBLE WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES AOA 80 F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
   60S...RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG/. 
   THERE IS ALSO SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THE ONGOING STORMS OVER THE
   EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROPAGATE ESEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY
   AND ONSHORE. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK INVOF THE
   BOUNDARY...THE LOCALLY BACKED FLOW AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW NEAR 50 KT
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES.  
   
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR IN THE ZONE OF
   BACKED FLOW AND RICHER MOISTURE ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE
   BOUNDARY.  THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR EVIDENCE OF
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED NEAR MIDDAY.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 04/01/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   28258058 28288149 28408258 28558289 29028309 29508349
               29838369 30138306 30188176 30108148 29538099 28738051
               28258058