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Mesoscale Discussion 357
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0407 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OK/KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 182107Z - 182330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME SVR RISK SPREADING
   INTO THE REGION FROM THE W...AND WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS IN
   N-CNTRL/NWRN OK INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL KS MAY SPREAD E/NE OF ONGOING
   UPSTREAM TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN OWING TO DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING...WITH
   MODESTLY MOIST PBL CONDITIONS /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
   LOWER 60S/ SUPPORTING 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. SVR HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF
   LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING/COLD POOL GROWTH COULD YIELD DMGG
   WIND GUSTS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL IS RELATIVELY WEAK...ONE OR TWO BRIEF
   TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OWING TO MODESTLY ENHANCED EFFECTIVE
   SRH BY BACKED/SE SFC WINDS. HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP SHEAR COULD
   MITIGATE THIS RISK IN THE SHORT-TERM. WITH STRONGER DEEP ASCENT
   UPSTREAM...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT COVERAGE OF
   SVR-TSTM RISK...THOUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35549792 36129803 36569794 37799768 39799757 39189622
               36109619 35539701 35549792 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2015
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