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Mesoscale Discussion 357
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL-NERN SC...CENTRAL NC...AND SOUTH
   CENTRAL VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 150843Z - 151045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
   A BRIEF TORNADO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TO
   EARLY MORNING FROM FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN SC THROUGH CENTRAL NC
   INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STORM HAD INCREASED IN
   INTENSITY AFTER 0720Z...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION AS IT TRACKED
   NEWD FROM UNION COUNTY INTO STANLY COUNTY NC.  WHILE THIS STORM HAS
   SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED...A CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED OVER SOUTH
   CENTRAL NC AND ADJACENT NRN SC IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH
   CENTRAL NC THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS.  WSR-88D VAD DATA ACROSS THIS REGION INDICATED STRENGTHENING
   AND BACKING MIDLEVEL WINDS /60-70 KT AT 6-8 KM AGL/ SUGGESTING A
   MIDLEVEL IMPULSE/JET STREAK MOVING FROM SC TOWARD NC.  SURFACE
   ANALYSIS SHOWED A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN VA SSWWD THROUGH
   WEST CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL SC.  A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED
   SEWD FROM CENTRAL NC INVOF THE STORM CLUSTER THROUGH ERN SC AND
   OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL SC COAST ATTENDANT TO THE BAND OF
   STORMS...LOCATED FROM 50 SE CHS TO 120 E SSI.  STORM DEVELOPMENT
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS TROUGH TOO.

   ASCENT WITH THE APPARENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAX AND LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
   SUFFICIENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
   THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY STRONGER STORMS...THUS PRECLUDING A
   GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35477805 34507850 34017896 33697962 33847992 34438018
               35058032 36137992 36847939 36767835 36477788 36077783
               35477805 

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Page last modified: April 15, 2014
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