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Mesoscale Discussion 416
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN NORTH TX INTO THE TX S PLAINS/SRN
   TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 191748Z - 192015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK FOR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   ISOLATED SVR HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR SVR POTENTIAL...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SMALL LOBE OF MID-LEVEL
   ASCENT GLANCING THE TX PANHANDLE AND VICINITY...GRAZING RECYCLED
   MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS
   AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
   50S NEAR AND S OF A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM S-CNTRL OK TO
   NEAR WICHITA FALLS TX TO W OF AMARILLO. AS THE ASCENT CONTINUES TO
   INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE...WEAK FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS MAY
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX S
   PLAINS...WITH RESULTANT ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD OTHER
   PARTS OF WRN N TX AND SWRN OK. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS LIMITING
   DIURNAL LOSSES IN BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC STABILITY...THOUGH RECENT
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS IMPLY POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
   THINNING/FILTERED INSOLATION ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...A RECENT
   TENDENCY FOR SFC OBSERVATIONS TO DEPICT AN INCREASE IN SLY-FLOW
   COMPONENT IMPLIES SOME POTENTIAL FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR
   THROUGH PEAK HEATING...THOUGH LOW/MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.

   REGARDLESS...STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW -- AROUND 50 KT AT 6 KM AGL
   SAMPLED BY THE LBB VWP -- SUGGESTS THAT STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION. OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE
   FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
   ISOLATED SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. ABUNDANT ANVIL-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW
   WILL SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL UPPER-LEVEL VENTING WITH CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS. MEANWHILE...THE STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE SERN
   QUADRANT OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL
   ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH GIVEN LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.
   HOWEVER...THE LACK OF GREATER BUOYANCY SHOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TOWARD
   SUPPORTING ANY MORE THAN A MARGINAL/ISOLATED SVR-HAIL RISK...THOUGH
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 04/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34140264 34590197 35079933 34829792 33979813 33599896
               33429984 33360117 33510263 34140264 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2016
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