Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 416
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 416 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN NC...CNTRL AND NRN VA...CNTRL MD...SERN
   PA...NJ...DE...FAR SERN NY...FAR SWRN CT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221632Z - 221830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE ACROSS WESTERN
   MD/NORTHERN VA WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE
   COVERAGE OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL BELOW WATCH THRESHOLDS.

   DISCUSSION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
   STRETCHES FROM CNTRL NY TO ERN KY AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW
   OVER WRN ONTARIO. STRONG HEATING IS ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS BAND
   UNDERNEATH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM. THE MAIN
   LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING. NONETHELESS...MUCAPE IS
   EXPECTED TO REACH VALUES OF 100-400 J/KG AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
   ARE REACHED IN THE MD AREA. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW 1-3KFT AGL AND A
   DRY SUB-CLOUD WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR ISOLATED STRONG-TO-MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE MORE
   ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF THE WIND GUSTS
   REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO
   PRECLUDE A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

   ..CONIGLIO/GLEASON/HART.. 04/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...
   RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   40947582 41417523 41617467 41827405 41757323 41317312
               39797442 38097628 37077801 36397949 35958082 36358159
               37308082 38877858 39917725 40947582 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 22, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities