Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 432
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 432 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0432
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF IL...WRN INDIANA...ERN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 211829Z - 212100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING
   RISK OF ISOLATED SVR HAIL FROM DEVELOPING TSTMS. HOWEVER...WW
   ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
   TRACKING EWD OVER CNTRL/SRN IA...AS A HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK ADVANCES
   NEWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY. FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
   JET STREAK AND VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SFC-LAYER
   DIABATIC HEATING BENEATH TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   50S YIELD MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW IMPLIED BY
   SFC OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL VWP DATA SUGGEST OVERALL LIMITED
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED SVR-WIND RISK. REGARDLESS...TSTMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
   SPREAD NEWD/EWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

   COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR HAIL PRODUCTION WITH EVOLVING
   CONVECTIVE CELLS/CLUSTERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   CNTRL IL INTO WRN INDIANA AND VICINITY WHERE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
   MAXIMIZED BENEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK. LOW WET-BULB
   FREEZING-LEVEL HEIGHTS -- GIVEN H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C --
   COUPLED WITH LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
   IMPLYING AMPLE CONVECTIVE VENTILATION...SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL BE
   EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OVERALL DEARTH OF
   BUOYANCY...OWING TO THE PAUCITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...ONLY A
   FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED.
   HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...
   ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   STRUCTURES TO EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF IL/INDIANA IN PROXIMITY TO
   STRONGER DEEP SHEAR.

   ..COHEN/GUYER.. 04/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   38658976 38959011 39979016 40599027 41369070 41959123
               42299110 42149027 41718866 40738739 39698745 39258781
               38648897 38658976 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 21, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities