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Mesoscale Discussion 439
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0550 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL/ERN KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...

   VALID 242250Z - 242345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 102 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WW 102.
   PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN S-CNTRL KS AND N-CNTRL OK MAY BE
   CANCELLED EARLY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING SUPERCELL OVER OTTAWA/SALINE COUNTIES IN KS
   WILL CONTINUE NEWD OVER THE NEXT HOUR...POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LATEST RAP
   MESOANALYSIS AND VWPS FROM KTOP/KICT SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL
   ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT
   TERM ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS AS A LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENT OVER
   MUCH OF THE MCD AREA STRENGTHENS WITH TIME THROUGH THE EARLY
   EVENING.

   FURTHER S ACROSS S-CNTRL KS INTO N-CNTRL OK...VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SHOWS A LACK OF RECENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
   DRYLINE...AND AGITATED CUMULUS THAT WAS PRESENT EARLIER HAS
   DISSIPATED. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS
   REGION IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THIS EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   FOR ASCENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS BECOMES INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THIS AREA. IF CURRENT
   TRENDS CONTINUE...PORTIONS OF THE TORNADO WATCH ACROSS S-CNTRL KS
   INTO N-CNTRL OK MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY.

   ..GLEASON.. 04/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36159959 36589961 36589961 37729955 39129904 39949794
               39969535 39699536 38039551 37299595 36259693 36159713
               36159734 36159959 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2016
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