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Mesoscale Discussion 453
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS IA...ERN MO...WRN IL...EXTREME NERN
   NEB...EXTREME SERN SD.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 281754Z - 282000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH AFTERNOON FOR
   SFC-BASED TSTMS -- INCLUDING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS -- IN NW-SE ARC
   ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES AND SPORADIC
   DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE.  PRIMARY RISK THAT WOULD REQUIRE WW
   SHOULD BE FROM SRN IA SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS IL/MO.  POTENTIAL IN ALL
   SEVERE MODES IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH NWWD EXTENT ACROSS NWRN IA
   INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS NEB/SD...HOWEVER A FEW SMALL SUPERCELLS MAY
   BRIEFLY BECOME SFC-BASED.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP/OCCLUDED LOW OVER NERN NEB
   NEAR BVN...WITH OCCLUDED FRONT ARCHING NEAR ONL...20 S SUX...AIO. 
   WARM FRONT EXTENDS ESEWD FROM THERE ACROSS SRN IA TO CENTRAL
   IL...WITH COLD FRONT SEWD FROM AIO AREA ACROSS CENTRAL MO INVOF COU.
    WARM/OCCLUDED FRONTS WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS IA AND WRN IL...WHILE
   COLD FRONT MOVES EWD OVER WRN MO TOWARD MS RIVER...THROUGH REMAINDER
   AFTN.  WEDGE OF FAVORABLE/SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION...DUE TO
   DIABATIC HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT...IS UNDERWAY IN
   WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THOSE BOUNDARIES...AND W OF CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME
   THAT COVERS SERN MO/SRN IL REGION.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED FCST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...INCREASING SWD...WITH
   MINIMAL MLCINH OVER ERN MO AND SERN IA.  MLCINH SHOULD ERODE
   COMPLETELY NWWD TO TRIPLE POINT...AND PERHAPS IN NARROW SLIVER N OF
   OCCLUDED FRONT...DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG
   OCCLUDED FRONT AND ALONG AND JUST S OF WARM FRONT...AS WELL AS
   RELATED BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY ENHANCEMENT...WILL SUPPORT
   STORM-SCALE ROTATION AND SOME TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY AS
   CONVECTION MOVES INTO THOSE ZONES.  EFFECTIVE SRH 150-200 J/KG WILL
   BE POSSIBLE NEAR WARM FRONT.  BKN TO QUASI-LINEAR MODE WITH SOME
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS IS EXPECTED FARTHER S ACROSS ERN MO.

   ..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40449270 41539515 42129616 42559722 43019724 42349441
               42109329 41709178 41059057 40228972 39498960 38438972
               37819045 37749142 38029168 38809211 39579213 40449270 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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