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Mesoscale Discussion 453
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1009 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL OK...SERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261509Z - 261645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST THIS MORNING ACROSS
   PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL OK AND POSSIBLY INTO SERN KS. A WW IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AS THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED IN THE
   SHORT-TERM...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED TSTM HAS DEVELOPED NE OF THE OKC METRO AREA
   THIS MORNING...ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A RIBBON OF
   MOISTENING/ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
   STORM IS LIKELY ROOTED NEAR 700 MB AT THE MOMENT...BUT WITH VERY
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 9 C/KM PER 12Z OUN SOUNDING/ A HAIL
   THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AND ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS
   THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED
   THROUGH THE LATE MORNING GIVEN THE RELATIVELY CONFINED AREA OF
   ASCENT...AND THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE IN THE
   SHORT-TERM...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM/SVR POTENTIAL ACCOMPANYING
   THE LARGER UPSTREAM TROUGH INCREASES LATER TODAY.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37089518 35909612 35399674 35399730 35709744 36609711
               37289665 37469622 37419547 37089518 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2016
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