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Mesoscale Discussion 453
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...

   VALID 251620Z - 251745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 110 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WW 110 MAY
   SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS STRUGGLED TO
   ORGANIZE THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...AS IT BECOMES
   INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM LARGE SCALE FORCING TO THE NW.
   HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING
   ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TALLAHASSEE TO MADISON FL MAY
   CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN IN THE SHORT TERM. DIURNAL HEATING S
   OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS NRN FL. A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
   AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
   70S...REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA. GPS PW ESTIMATES SUGGEST
   ADDITIONAL LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF AND
   OVER NRN FL...WHICH SHOULD HELP FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
   GIVEN VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW...AROUND 60
   KT AT 500 MB PER THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM TAE...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   THE SRN PORTIONS OF WW 110 SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
   THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

   ..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29888313 30048499 30368505 31058451 31148403 31128267
               31058221 30548234 29888261 29888313 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2015
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