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Mesoscale Discussion 532
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1020 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX AND SWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071520Z - 071715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM A PORTION OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX. THOUGH A WW IS POSSIBLE...THREAT FROM THESE
   INITIAL STORMS MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
   HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...A WHICH TIME A WW MIGHT BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   EXTENDS ACROSS NRN TX INTO NWRN TX. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THE NEAR
   SFC LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER CNTRL TX AND
   MID 60S OVER WRN TX GENERALLY SOUTH OF LUBBOCK. STORMS THAT ARE
   CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER WRN TX APPEAR TO BE IN RESPONSE TO ZONE OF
   ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV
   IMAGERY. THESE STORMS APPEAR POORLY ORGANIZED AND ELEVATED ABOVE A
   STABLE SFC LAYER...BUT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT IS
   SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO ACQUIRE MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
   ROTATION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
   WITH SOME OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. 

   WITH TIME THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN...AND RICHER MOISTURE
   WILL ADVECT INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK WHICH /IN ADDITION TO DIABATIC
   HEATING/ WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
   THE SRN MOST STORMS OVER WRN TX MIGHT PERSIST AND INTENSIFY LATER
   THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERS.
   STORMS THAT PERSIST AND REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THIS
   BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 05/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35280010 34929835 34379785 33369818 33050070 33360203
               34190235 35080153 35280010 

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