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Mesoscale Discussion 532
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...ERN KY...SERN WV...NWRN NC AND WRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021734Z - 021930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE
   ATLANTIC REGION. MULTICELL AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
   EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN
   THREATS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING 
   OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN REGION FROM ERN TN THROUGH ERN KY...WRN VA
   AND SRN WV. MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWED MINIMAL CAPPING OF THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 70S...AND CONTINUED HEATING
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
   INITIATION. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE
   TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND MODEST
   /6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A BELT OF MODEST WSWLY WINDS
   ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS
   VALLEY REGION IS CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT BOTH MULTICELL STORM MODES AS WELL AS A FEW
   MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE
   HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/02/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   36098448 37568268 38687993 38687831 37937774 37127797
               36177982 35318342 36098448 

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Page last modified: May 02, 2016
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