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Mesoscale Discussion 730
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND DEEP SOUTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272013Z - 272115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TX TO THE MIDDLE TX
   COAST.  WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE WRN EXTENT OF A COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO INLAND INVOF OF KCRP
   AND NWWD TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE STORMS IN BEXAR/ATASCOSA
   COUNTIES TX.  A SEPARATE STORM HAD ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR THE OUTFLOW
   IN LIVE OAK COUNTY WITH THIS STORM MORE LIKELY TO BE SURFACE BASED. 
   SWD FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...TIME-LAPSE OF VISIBLE IMAGERY
   INDICATED GRAVITY WAVES PROPAGATING SEWD WHICH INDICATES AN
   INVERSION REMAINED ACROSS THAT AREA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN STORMS ARE
   FORMING NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /LIVE OAK COUNTY/ AND CU HAS BEEN
   DEVELOPING INVOF A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND OF THE S TX
   COAST...ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
   THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

   35-40 KT WNWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RED
   RIVER VALLEY CLOSED LOW AND E/SELY SURFACE WINDS INVOF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 50-55 KT.  THIS
   COMBINED WITH MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS/ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.  GIVEN THE E/SELY SURFACE WIND
   COMPONENT...VERTICALLY-VEERING WINDS ARE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH
   OF 150-300 M2/S2...SUPPORTING A TORNADO THREAT.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   28079692 27539717 27209754 27079797 27239844 28029891
               28389914 28739921 29179897 29419855 29429792 28579699
               28079692 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2014
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