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Mesoscale Discussion 730
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0730
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

   Areas affected...eastern tx/ok panhandle...western ok

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 161819Z - 161915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop across the eastern TX/OK
   Panhandles over the next few hours.  Tornadoes are expected with
   this activity, along with very large hail and severe wind gusts. 
   Tornado watch will be issued by mid afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery suggests large-scale
   forcing for ascent is spreading across the southern Rockies, per
   marked increase in showers and thunderstorms over western/central
   NM.  Downstream, dry line has mixed east and is becoming well
   defined over the TX Panhandle/South Plains region with substantial
   boundary-layer cu immediately east of the dry line.  Towering cu,
   and a few attempts at glaciation, are noted over
   Hutchinson/Hansford/Ochiltree Counties.  There is increasing
   confidence supercells will develop across the eastern TX/OK
   Panhandles by mid afternoon with subsequent movement expected into
   western portions of OK/southwest KS into the evening. Environmental
   conditions appear favorable for tornadoes and very large hail as
   steep lapse rates are evident on 12z soundings and surface dew
   points have now risen into the mid 60s.  Environmental conditions
   appear favorable for a few strong tornadoes.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/16/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34400122 35680143 37270015 37069899 35189945 34189949

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