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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT WED MAY 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN GA...SC...SRN NC.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061247Z - 061415Z
SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE OVER PORTIONS SRN PIEDMONT REGION OF SC
AND NE GA DURING NEXT FEW HOURS.
ONGOING BAND OF NON-SVR TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 1230Z FROM EXTREME SWRN
NC SSWWD TO NRN FRINGES ATL METRO AREA -- SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD...WITH SOME SWD BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ALONG THE WAY. FOREGOING
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RATE OF DIABATIC/DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH
REMAINDER MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...PROSPECTIVE INFLOW AIR MASS --
EMANATING FROM ERN GA AND WRN/CENTRAL SC -- WILL BE DESTABILIZED
GRADUALLY BY MUTED INSOLATION...AS WELL AS BY WAA. 12Z FFC RAOB
ALREADY SHOWS SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCEL...WITH MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG...AND BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE DOWNSHEAR OVER ERN GA AND
SC DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL MIXING AND COUPLING OF
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD TAKE PLACE AS A RESULT...LLJ THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 850 MB STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED AT 30-35 KT
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT APCHS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MS
VALLEY. AS THIS TROUGH APCHS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALSO SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION...AIDING IN ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION.
..EDWARDS.. 05/06/2009
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 34168396 34878355 35038131 34887943 32838084 33838410
34168396
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