|Mesoscale Discussion 730|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Areas affected...eastern tx/ok panhandle...western ok
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 161819Z - 161915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop across the eastern TX/OK
Panhandles over the next few hours. Tornadoes are expected with
this activity, along with very large hail and severe wind gusts.
Tornado watch will be issued by mid afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery suggests large-scale
forcing for ascent is spreading across the southern Rockies, per
marked increase in showers and thunderstorms over western/central
NM. Downstream, dry line has mixed east and is becoming well
defined over the TX Panhandle/South Plains region with substantial
boundary-layer cu immediately east of the dry line. Towering cu,
and a few attempts at glaciation, are noted over
Hutchinson/Hansford/Ochiltree Counties. There is increasing
confidence supercells will develop across the eastern TX/OK
Panhandles by mid afternoon with subsequent movement expected into
western portions of OK/southwest KS into the evening. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for tornadoes and very large hail as
steep lapse rates are evident on 12z soundings and surface dew
points have now risen into the mid 60s. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for a few strong tornadoes.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34400122 35680143 37270015 37069899 35189945 34189949
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