Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 769
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 955 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF DEVILS LAKE NORTH DAKOTA TO 65 MILES SOUTH OF FARGO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 767...WW 768...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING OVER CENTRAL ND IN REGION
OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL
MAINTAIN STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE 40+ KNOT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 769 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 290255Z - 290900Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65NNE DVL/DEVILS LAKE ND/ - 65S FAR/FARGO ND/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /71SW YWG - 46S FAR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 48979716 45979566 45979797 48979958
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 769 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 769
VALID 290840Z - 290940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE ABR TO
30 S FAR TO 10 SW DTL TO 35 E DTL.
..EVANS..07/29/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 769
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-051-111-167-290940-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER GRANT OTTER TAIL
WILKIN
$$
NDC077-290940-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
RICHLAND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 769
VALID 290735Z - 290840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW VVV TO
20 W FAR TO 10 ESE GFK TO 25 WNW ROX.
..EVANS..07/29/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 769
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-027-051-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-167-290840-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER CLAY GRANT
MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN
OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK
RED LAKE WILKIN
$$
NDC017-077-097-290840-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS RICHLAND TRAILL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 769
VALID 290655Z - 290740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E JMS TO
45 WNW HCO.
..GUYER..07/29/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 769
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-027-051-069-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-167-290740-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER CLAY GRANT
KITTSON MAHNOMEN MARSHALL
NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE WILKIN
$$
NDC003-017-035-039-063-067-073-077-081-091-097-099-290740-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS
GRIGGS NELSON PEMBINA
RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT
STEELE TRAILL WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 769
VALID 290445Z - 290540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..07/29/08
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 769
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC005-027-051-069-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-167-290540-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKER CLAY GRANT
KITTSON MAHNOMEN MARSHALL
NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON
POLK RED LAKE WILKIN
$$
NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-073-077-081-091-095-
097-099-290540-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES BENSON CASS
CAVALIER EDDY GRAND FORKS
GRIGGS NELSON PEMBINA
RAMSEY RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT STEELE TOWNER
TRAILL WALSH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.