Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 105 AM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 753...WW 754...
DISCUSSION...SCTD TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE FORMING ALONG NNW-SSE
ORIENTED WEAK FRONT OVER CNTRL AND S CNTRL LA. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
MARK LEADING EDGE OF VERY MOIST LOW LVL AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S F/ EXTENDING EWD FROM SE TX. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WSWLY LLJ AHEAD
OF NE-SW SQLN NOW MOVING SE ACROSS E TX/CNTRL LA MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LOW LVL SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND A THREAT FOR
BRIEF TORNADOES WITH STORMS ALONG BOUNDARY GIVEN LOW LCLS...MODERATE
DEEP WNWLY SHEAR....AND LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM INTERACTIONS WITH SQLN.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 755 TORNADO LA MS CW 020605Z - 021100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NW ESF/ALEXANDRIA LA/ - 40SSE 7R4/INTRACOASTAL CITY LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /18N AEX - 80SSW BTR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..50 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 31549129 29239072 29239304 31549366
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 755 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 755
VALID 021035Z - 021100Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S LCH TO
35 ESE 7R4 TO 25 NNW HUM.
WW 755 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021100Z.
..DIAL..10/02/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 755
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC057-093-109-021100-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
LAFOURCHE ST. JAMES TERREBONNE
$$
GMZ452-455-550-021100-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 755
VALID 020940Z - 021040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S LCH TO
20 WNW 7R4 TO 20 SE LFT TO 5 SSW BTR TO 10 NE BTR.
..DIAL..10/02/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 755
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC005-007-045-047-057-093-099-101-109-113-021040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION ASSUMPTION IBERIA
IBERVILLE LAFOURCHE ST. JAMES
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY TERREBONNE
VERMILION
$$
GMZ435-452-455-550-021040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
VERMILLION BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 755
VALID 020840Z - 020940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW LCH
TO 30 WNW LFT TO 25 NNE LFT TO 30 N BTR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060
..DIAL..10/02/09
ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 755
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-005-007-019-023-033-037-045-047-053-055-057-093-099-101-
109-113-121-020940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ASCENSION ASSUMPTION
CALCASIEU CAMERON EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE
ST. JAMES ST. MARTIN ST. MARY
TERREBONNE VERMILION WEST BATON ROUGE
$$
GMZ432-435-452-455-550-020940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CALCASIEU LAKE
VERMILLION BAY
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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