Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 629
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EASTERN WYOMING
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GILLETTE WYOMING TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF SIDNEY NEBRASKA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 627...WW 628...
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY OVER PARTS OF ERN WY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FOCUSED. AREA
VAD/PROFILERS INDICATE THAT WINDS VEER STRONGLY WITH HEIGHT
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER CELLS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY
BETTER DEFINED SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY NEWD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 629 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 112010Z - 120300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
80NE GCC/GILLETTE WY/ - 10ESE SNY/SIDNEY NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /92NW RAP - 9ESE SNY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 45150283 41040136 41040423 45150591
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 629 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 629
VALID 120245Z - 120300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SNY
TO 45 SW MHN.
WW 629 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 120300Z.
..DIAL..07/12/11
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 629
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC049-120300-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEUEL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 629
VALID 120200Z - 120340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE SNY
TO 40 SW MHN.
..DIAL..07/12/11
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 629
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC049-120340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEUEL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 629
VALID 120100Z - 120240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW GCC
TO 40 E CYS TO 20 NW SNY TO 30 SE AIA TO 35 SW MHN.
..DIAL..07/12/11
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 629
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC033-049-069-105-120240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN
KIMBALL
$$
WYC005-120240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 629
VALID 112335Z - 120040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW GCC
TO 40 SSE GCC TO 35 ESE RAP.
..DIAL..07/11/11
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 629
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-157-120040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL
GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF
$$
SDC033-120040-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER
$$
WYC005-015-045-120040-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL GOSHEN WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 629
VALID 112245Z - 112340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE GCC
TO 40 W RAP TO 30 E RAP.
..DIAL..07/11/11
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 629
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-033-049-069-105-123-157-112340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER CHEYENNE DEUEL
GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL
SCOTTS BLUFF
$$
SDC033-103-112340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUSTER PENNINGTON
$$
WYC005-015-045-112340-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL GOSHEN WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 629
VALID 112140Z - 112240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DIAL..07/11/11
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 629
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-112240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE
DAWES DEUEL GARDEN
KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF
SHERIDAN SIOUX
$$
SDC019-033-047-081-093-103-113-112240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER
LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON
SHANNON
$$
WYC005-011-015-027-045-112240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK GOSHEN
NIOBRARA WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.