Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND PANHANDLE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 550 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ALTOONA PENNSYLVANIA TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
STAUNTON VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 628...WW 629...WW 630...
DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED MCS WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD/SEWD THIS EVENING INTO A HOT AND MOIST
INFLOW AIR MASS. WHILE SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 28030.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 631 SEVERE TSTM MD PA VA WV 112150Z - 120300Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20WNW AOO/ALTOONA PA/ - 10ESE SHD/STAUNTON VA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM E/W /9ENE JST - 48WSW CSN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
LAT...LON 40407780 38207790 38207955 40407951
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 631 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 631
VALID 120135Z - 120240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CHO
TO 45 NE CHO.
..GARNER..07/12/11
ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-120240-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
$$
MDC003-005-009-017-025-033-037-510-120240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CHARLES HARFORD PRINCE GEORGES
ST. MARYS
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
$$
VAC013-059-099-153-177-179-510-600-610-630-683-685-120240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARLINGTON FAIRFAX KING GEORGE
PRINCE WILLIAM SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDRIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH
FREDERICKSBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK
$$
ANZ530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542-543-
120240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ANZ530
ANZ531
ANZ532
ANZ533
ANZ534
ANZ535
ANZ536
ANZ537
ANZ538
ANZ539
ANZ540
ANZ541
ANZ542
ANZ543
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 631
VALID 120030Z - 120140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 ESE SHD TO
15 SSE MRB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584
..GARNER..07/12/11
ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-120140-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
$$
MDC003-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-510-120140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK
HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY
PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
$$
VAC003-013-047-059-061-079-099-107-113-125-137-153-157-177-179-
510-540-600-610-630-683-685-120140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON CULPEPER
FAIRFAX FAUQUIER GREENE
KING GEORGE LOUDOUN MADISON
NELSON ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAM
RAPPAHANNOCK SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG MANASSAS
MANASSAS PARK
$$
ANZ530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542-543-
120140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ANZ530
ANZ531
ANZ532
ANZ533
ANZ534
ANZ535
ANZ536
ANZ537
ANZ538
ANZ539
ANZ540
ANZ541
ANZ542
ANZ543
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 631
VALID 112340Z - 120040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE EKN
TO 15 WNW AOO.
..GARNER..07/11/11
ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-120040-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
$$
MDC001-003-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510-
120040-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE
CALVERT CARROLL CHARLES
FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD
MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS
WASHINGTON
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
$$
PAC009-013-055-057-061-087-120040-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD BLAIR FRANKLIN
FULTON HUNTINGDON MIFFLIN
$$
VAC003-013-015-043-047-059-061-069-079-091-099-107-113-125-137-
139-153-157-165-171-177-179-187-510-540-600-610-630-660-683-685-
790-820-840-120040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON AUGUSTA
CLARKE CULPEPER FAIRFAX
FAUQUIER FREDERICK GREENE
HIGHLAND KING GEORGE LOUDOUN
MADISON NELSON ORANGE
PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK
ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIA
STAFFORD WARREN
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG HARRISONBURG
MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK STAUNTON
WAYNESBORO WINCHESTER
$$
WVC003-023-027-031-037-057-065-071-120040-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKELEY GRANT HAMPSHIRE
HARDY JEFFERSON MINERAL
MORGAN PENDLETON
$$
ANZ530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-542-120040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
ANZ530
ANZ531
ANZ532
ANZ533
ANZ534
ANZ535
ANZ536
ANZ537
ANZ542
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.