Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF BIG SPRING TEXAS TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 651...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS REGION IS INFLUENCED BY A
WEAK MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND EXIT REGION OF AN 80 KT
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THE SETUP WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 652 SEVERE TSTM TX 262045Z - 270400Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15ESE BGS/BIG SPRING TX/ - 45NNE PVW/PLAINVIEW TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /47E MAF - 33SSE AMA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 32130245 34770265 34770018 32130006
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 652 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 652
VALID 270135Z - 270240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW ABI
TO 60 NNE BGS TO 30 NW CDS.
..PETERS..09/27/12
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC075-101-125-191-263-269-345-433-270240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHILDRESS COTTLE DICKENS
HALL KENT KING
MOTLEY STONEWALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 652
VALID 270035Z - 270140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW MAF
TO 55 SSW LBB TO 50 SSE LBB TO 25 ENE LBB TO 40 ESE PVW TO 50 SE
AMA.
..PETERS..09/27/12
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-075-101-107-115-125-169-191-227-263-269-317-335-345-415-
433-270140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN CHILDRESS COTTLE
CROSBY DAWSON DICKENS
GARZA HALL HOWARD
KENT KING MARTIN
MITCHELL MOTLEY SCURRY
STONEWALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 652
VALID 262340Z - 270040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..09/26/12
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-045-069-075-101-107-115-125-153-169-189-191-219-227-263-
269-279-303-305-317-335-345-415-433-437-445-270040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN BRISCOE CASTRO
CHILDRESS COTTLE CROSBY
DAWSON DICKENS FLOYD
GARZA HALE HALL
HOCKLEY HOWARD KENT
KING LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MITCHELL
MOTLEY SCURRY STONEWALL
SWISHER TERRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 652
VALID 262245Z - 262340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..09/26/12
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-045-069-075-101-107-115-125-153-169-189-191-219-227-263-
269-279-303-305-317-335-345-415-433-437-445-262340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN BRISCOE CASTRO
CHILDRESS COTTLE CROSBY
DAWSON DICKENS FLOYD
GARZA HALE HALL
HOCKLEY HOWARD KENT
KING LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MITCHELL
MOTLEY SCURRY STONEWALL
SWISHER TERRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 652
VALID 262130Z - 262240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..09/26/12
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 652
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-045-069-075-101-107-115-125-153-169-189-191-219-227-263-
269-279-303-305-317-335-345-415-433-437-445-262240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN BRISCOE CASTRO
CHILDRESS COTTLE CROSBY
DAWSON DICKENS FLOYD
GARZA HALE HALL
HOCKLEY HOWARD KENT
KING LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MITCHELL
MOTLEY SCURRY STONEWALL
SWISHER TERRY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.