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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
WEST TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST OF
MEMPHIS TENNESSEE TO 35 MILES NORTH OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 290...
DISCUSSION...SRN EXTENSION OF SAME MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AFFECTING
SE MO/SRN IL/WRN KY WILL EXIST OVER W TN AREA THIS EVE. WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER REGION DURING THE NEXT
2-4 HRS...AND WITH SFC HEATING TO CONTINUE...EXPECT SOME
STRENGTHENING OF EXISTING STORMS. AREA WIND PROFILES SUGGEST AN
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DMGG
WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 22025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 291 SEVERE TSTM AR MO TN 092035Z - 100200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15E MEM/MEMPHIS TN/ - 35N DYR/DYERSBURG TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /13E MEM - 29N DYR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22025.
LAT...LON 35029094 36509066 36508813 35028848
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 291 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 291
VALID 100035Z - 100200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E MEM TO
45 WSW HOP.
WW 291 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 100200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011.
..GRAMS..06/10/13
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC017-023-069-077-079-109-113-100200-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER HARDEMAN
HENDERSON HENRY MCNAIRY
MADISON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 291
VALID 092335Z - 100040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E MEM TO
35 NNE DYR.
..GRAMS..06/09/13
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC017-023-033-047-053-069-075-077-079-109-113-131-183-100040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
FAYETTE GIBSON HARDEMAN
HAYWOOD HENDERSON HENRY
MCNAIRY MADISON OBION
WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 291
VALID 092230Z - 092340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW MEM TO
40 NNW DYR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009.
..GRAMS..06/09/13
ATTN...WFO...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 291
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TNC017-023-033-045-047-053-069-075-077-079-095-097-109-113-131-
157-167-183-092340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CHESTER CROCKETT
DYER FAYETTE GIBSON
HARDEMAN HAYWOOD HENDERSON
HENRY LAKE LAUDERDALE
MCNAIRY MADISON OBION
SHELBY TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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