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< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Aug 9, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 9 17:23:01 UTC 2022 (Print Version | 20220809 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20220809 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 091723

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1223 PM CDT Tue Aug 09 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
   AND EASTERN MARYLAND...MUCH OF DELAWARE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
   WASHINGTON AND  NORTHEASTERN OREGON...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A cluster of strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for locally gusty
   and damaging winds, may develop across parts of the Mid Atlantic
   Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Isolated strong thunderstorms may
   also impact parts of the northern intermountain region, accompanied
   by at least some risk for severe weather.

   ...Synopsis...
   Little change to the amplified regime across the mid- and
   subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into the interior of
   the U.S. is forecast through this period.  Mid-level ridging, with a
   broad and prominent embedded high, will remain centered across the
   Rockies and Great Plains, downstream of large-scale troughing near
   and offshore of the Pacific coast.  Near and just east of the
   mid-level trough axis, a significant embedded low appears likely to
   continue migrating slowly northward just offshore of the Oregon and
   Washington coasts.

   To the east of the ridging, large-scale mid-level troughing, with a
   couple of vigorous embedded perturbations, is forecast to gradually
   dig across and southeast of the southern Hudson/James Bay and upper
   Great Lakes vicinities.  Models suggest that this will be preceded
   by weak mid-level troughing digging southeast of the lower Great
   Lakes through the Mid Atlantic vicinity by late Wednesday night.

   In association with this regime, an initial cold front may gradually
    stall and weaken across the Mid Atlantic coast and Ohio Valley into
   Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains vicinity, as a reinforcing
   cold front advances across much of the Great Lakes region by
   daybreak Thursday.  Seasonably high moisture content will largely
   remain confined to the south of the lead front, to the east of the
   Rockies.  Across the west, a plume of monsoonal moisture emanating
   from Southwest will be maintained, but perhaps slowly shift eastward
   across the northern intermountain region/Great Basin, ahead of
   subsidence/drying in the wake of the offshore low.

   ...Mid Atlantic...
   As the surface front advances offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic
   coast, models suggest that insolation across and to the lee of the
   Blue Ridge may contribute to a zone of stronger differential surface
   heating across the Potomac/Chesapeake vicinity Wednesday afternoon. 
   Despite rather weak deep-layer mean flow and shear, it is possible
   that this boundary could provide a focus for consolidating
   thunderstorm activity with some potential to organize by late
   afternoon.  Aided by inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air
   characterized by CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg, this
   convection may generate outflow supportive of strong to severe
   surface gusts, before weakening Wednesday evening.

   ...Washington/Oregon...
   Uncertainty lingers concerning the extent and degree of appreciable
   boundary-layer destabilization across the northern intermountain
   region on Wednesday.  However, aided by large-scale forcing for
   ascent to the northeast through east of the northward migrating
   offshore low, at least widely scattered thunderstorm development
   appears possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, particularly off
   the mountains of northeastern Oregon and near the higher terrain
   north of the Columbia Plateau.  Beneath 40-70+ kt southerly flow in
   the 500-300 mb layer, forecast soundings indicate that hodographs
   will become conditionally supportive of supercells posing at least a
   risk for severe wind and hail.

   ..Kerr.. 08/09/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: August 09, 2022
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