SPC AC 011726

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
   strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible Friday afternoon
   and evening across parts of the southern High Plains.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Compared to previous days, relatively limited morning convection is
   currently anticipated across the southern High Plains on Friday.
   This will allow for diurnal heating of a moist environment, with 60s
   F dewpoints potentially reaching as far west as extreme southeast
   NM. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across
   northern Mexico during the morning and into parts of the southern
   Rockies/High Plains during the afternoon, which would be favorably
   timed for scattered thunderstorm development within an unstable and
   favorably sheared environment. 

   Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable buoyancy (MLCAPE
   of 1500-3000 J/kg) will support a conditionally favorable
   environment for very large hail. The strongest deep-layer shear is
   expected over portions of the TX South Plains and Permian Basin, in
   association with a moderate subtropical jet, and a few intense
   supercells will be possible in this region, with an attendant threat
   of very large hail and localized severe gusts. Low-level shear/SRH
   is expected to remain relatively modest, but will be sufficient to
   support a threat of a couple of tornadoes as well. An Enhanced Risk
   (level 3 of 5) has been added where the greatest risk of supercells
   producing very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) is
   currently anticipated. 

   Severe storms will also be possible farther north into parts of the
   TX Panhandle, though weaker deep-layer shear may result in a mix of
   convective modes. Some upscale growth is possible with time as
   storms move eastward toward the TX Big Country region, which could
   increase the threat of severe gusts, though weaker shear with
   eastward extent may tend to limit the organization of any
   outflow-driven clusters into Friday evening. 

   ...Central High Plains...
   Isolated strong storms will be possible into parts of the central
   High Plains Friday afternoon/evening, along the northern fringe of
   somewhat stronger midlevel flow/deep-layer shear associated with a
   gradually weakening upper-level trough. A few organized multicells
   and perhaps a supercell or two are possible, with an attendant
   threat of large hail and locally strong/severe gusts. 

   ...Northeast...
   Weak deep-layer northerly flow will persist across the region on the
   eastern periphery of a Great Lakes upper anticyclone. Some modest
   midlevel cooling and weak ascent associated with an approaching
   shortwave trough from Quebec, in combination with relatively
   favorable moisture/instability, will support isolated thunderstorms
   during the afternoon. Vertical shear will remain very weak, limiting
   longevity and organization of strong updrafts. Nevertheless,
   relatively steep low/midlevel lapse rates could support a few strong
   gusts and small hail in stronger cells.

   ..Dean.. 06/01/2023

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