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Nov 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 12 17:15:44 UTC 2024 (Print Version | 20241112 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20241112 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 121715

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...AND COASTAL PORTIONS
   OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon
   into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States.
   Thunderstorms with strong to locally severe gusts are also possible
   near the immediate coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern
   California.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Plains through the
   MS Valley on Wednesday, becoming more negatively tilted as it does.
   An occluded surface low associated with this system will begin the
   period over the mid MO Valley before moving eastward across IA and
   reaching the northern IL early Thursday morning. More consequently
   for the severe-weather potential, a secondary triple-point low is
   expected to progress eastward across the northern portion of the
   Southeast states, along the northern edge of an eastward-evolving
   warm sector. Cold front associated with this low will gradually move
   eastward across the Southeast states during the day.

   Farther west, an upper-level trough is forecast to progress farther
   inland across the western CONUS, as an embedded shortwave trough
   moves across northern CA into the interior Northwest/northern Great
   Basin.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
   General expectation is for a triple-point surface low to evolve over
   the Mid-South vicinity through the early afternoon as low-level
   moisture continues to advect northward across the central Gulf Coast
   region. Dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s are anticipated ahead of
   this low and associated cold front. The airmass is expected to
   destabilize amid this low-level moisture, but overall buoyancy will
   still be modest given the lack of steep lapse rates. The combination
   of destabilization and increasing ascent is forecast to result in
   thunderstorm development across the warm sector, but along and ahead
   of the eastward-progressing cold front. 

   The stronger shear will likely be displaced north of the stronger
   buoyancy, but enough shear is expected across the warm sector to
   support organized storms if updrafts can persist and deepen. This
   evolution could support a few marginal supercells and/or stronger
   clusters during the afternoon and evening, with a threat of locally
   damaging winds and possibly a tornado or two.

   Elevated storms will also be possible through the day/evening to the
   north of the richer surface moisture. While effective shear will be
   sufficient for a few strong elevated storms, the severe potential
   with northward extent will tend to be limited by weak midlevel lapse
   rates and generally marginal buoyancy.

   ...WA/OR/Northern CA coasts...  
   Cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -24 to -28 deg C at 500 mb)
   associated with the upper trough are expected to spread eastward
   throughout the day. These cold mid-level temperatures and associated
   steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to modest buoyancy along
   the coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. Highest storm
   coverage is anticipated over the northern CA coast vicinity from the
   late morning into the early afternoon along as the frontal band
   moves through, but persistent forcing for ascent within this
   modestly buoyant airmass is expected to result in more cellular
   storms throughout the remainder of the afternoon and evening. A more
   linear mode is anticipated within the frontal band, with a few
   convectively enhanced gusts possible. Low-topped cellular activity
   is anticipated in the wake of the frontal band, with a few instances
   of small hail, and potentially even a brief tornado, possible.

   ..Mosier.. 11/12/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
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Page last modified: November 12, 2024
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