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Nov 14, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 14 17:00:25 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20181114 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20181114 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 141700

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1100 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON NEAR SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms may impact mainly the North Carolina Outer
   Banks vicinity and nearby coastal areas Thursday afternoon,
   accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

   ...Synopsis...
   While ridging within the mid-latitude westerlies rebuilds across the
   northeast Pacific, models indicate that flow downstream will
   transition to broadly cyclonic and northwesterly, from the lee of
   the Canadian Rockies through the lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic
   region.  This regime may include a number of embedded short wave
   troughs, the most significant of which appears likely to contribute
   to the northeastward acceleration of a lower/mid tropospheric
   cyclone now deepening over the Ark-La-Tex into Mid South vicinity.

   Models suggest that the mid-level low will probably continue east
   northeastward across the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valley vicinity during
   the day Thursday, before transitioning to an open wave while
   accelerating toward northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas Thursday
   night.  In general, it still appears that this will support fairly
   significant surface cyclogenesis near the Mid Atlantic coast,
   roughly from eastern North Carolina through the Long Island vicinity
   by 12Z Friday.  The most rapid deepening of the surface low seems
   most probable late Thursday through Thursday night, north/northeast
   of the North Carolina coastal plain, but considerable spread remains
   evident among the various model output concerning the synoptic and
   sub-synoptic developments. 

   Due to the apparent low predictability associated with the evolving
   system, the extent of the risk for thunderstorms, both rooted within
   and above the boundary layer inland of coastal areas, remains
   unclear across the Mid Atlantic Coast region.  However, other than
   some lingering risk for thunderstorms mainly across the southeastern
   Florida Peninsula coastal waters, convective potential elsewhere
   across the U.S. appears negligible Thursday through Thursday night.

   ...Southern Mid Atlantic Coast region...
   Convective potential will significantly hinge on the details of the
   evolution of the synoptic and sub-synoptic features.  This remains
   unclear at this time, but highest thunderstorms probabilities appear
   offshore, with any appreciable risk for boundary-layer based
   thunderstorm development probably limited to the North Carolina
   Outer Banks and nearby coastal areas.  Maximum CAPE likely will
   remain weak, well below 1000 J/kg, but strong lower/mid tropospheric
   wind fields will contribute to at least some severe weather
   potential.  Given varying depictions of the low-level hodograph
   structure evident in model forecast soundings,  it remains unclear
   whether a couple of damaging "straight-line" winds gusts or an
   isolated tornado or two will be the most prominent threat.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
   Wind:      5%     - Marginal
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Kerr.. 11/14/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
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Page last modified: November 14, 2018
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