SPC AC 161718
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
States on Thursday.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough/low and associated surface low/Nor'easter
will develop slowly northeastward across New England on Thursday. A
related cold front is forecast to stall over the central FL
Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the
front will probably limit overall storm coverage through much of the
day, although some guidance indicates potential for isolated
convective development with a weak sea breeze along/near the east
coast of the FL Peninsula by late afternoon. Modestly enhanced
mid-level flow will be present across this region along with weak to
moderate instability, but poor mid-level lapse rates should
generally limit the threat for organized severe storms.
Farther west, isolated storms may develop Thursday afternoon/evening
from the Four Corners region into parts of the central Rockies as
cooling mid-level temperatures and ascent preceding an upper trough
overspread these areas. Isolated, low-topped convection will also be
possible in a post-frontal regime across mainly coastal portions of
the Pacific Northwest. Weak instability across all these regions is
expected to preclude any meaningful severe threat.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None
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