SPC AC 141725

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH-CENTRAL
   FL PENINSULA AND THE TX PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEAST KS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday
   evening over parts of the north-central Florida Peninsula and in the
   southern Great Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough from the OH Valley to the Deep South will move
   off the South Atlantic Coast by early Thursday. Attendant surface
   cyclone will further occlude and decay over the Central OH Valley,
   while secondary cyclogenesis occurs just offshore of the VA/NC
   coast. Farther west, a series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses
   will gradually move east across parts of the Upper Midwest to
   Southwest states. 

   ...FL Peninsula... 
   At least scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across
   the northeast Gulf into north FL ahead of a weak surface front
   pushing southeastward. Ample buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of
   2000-3000 J/kg will likely develop across central and south FL where
   more robust boundary-layer heating occurs south of the morning
   convective canopy amid a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates.
   Consensus of 12Z CAM guidance suggests downstream thunderstorm
   development will occur late morning through midday as MLCIN wanes,
   with the leading edge of large-scale convective outflow serving as
   the effective boundary focus through the day. 

   Deep-layer shear will be strong with a belt of 50-60 kt mid-level
   flow south of the aforementioned shortwave trough. Although the flow
   regime should be largely unidirectional from the southwest, this
   will be sufficient for at least a few supercells. Large hail and a
   couple tornadoes will be the primary threats, along with isolated
   damaging winds. Overall threat should wane later in the afternoon as
   flow orientation becomes increasingly parallel to the composite
   outflow/front. 

   ...Central/southern Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley...
   A generally north/south-oriented cold front to the south of a weak
   surface cyclone over eastern SD will serve as a focus for scattered
   late afternoon and evening thunderstorm development over the central
   states. Airmass modification will be most pronounced across OK into
   south KS where low 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will spread north
   from east TX. This should yield a confined plume of moderate MLCAPE
   from 1500-2500 J/kg by peak heating. Weak buoyancy will be prevalent
   to the north of this plume and suggests the overall severe threat in
   the Mid-MO Valley should remain marginal.

   Farther south, low-level convergence near the front and dryline,
   along with post-frontal upslope in the Raton Mesa vicinity, and a
   strengthening low-level jet from west TX towards the southeast
   KS/northeast OK border should all aid in scattered to eventually
   widespread convective development by Wednesday evening. While the
   combination of boundary-layer moisture and deep-layer shear will be
   modest by mid-May standards, it should be adequate for transient
   supercells and clusters capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
   These threats should wane overnight.

   ...Carolinas...
   Moderate destabilization is anticipated ahead of the slow-moving
   shortwave trough, mainly across the coastal Plain. Isolated to
   scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon as this
   wave moves through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a
   predominant multicell mode. The more robust storms should be strong
   enough to produce sporadic hail and localized damaging winds.

   ..Grams.. 05/14/2024

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