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Oct 16, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 16 17:18:51 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20191016 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20191016 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 161718

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
   States on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A large-scale upper trough/low and associated surface low/Nor'easter
   will develop slowly northeastward across New England on Thursday. A
   related cold front is forecast to stall over the central FL
   Peninsula Thursday afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the
   front will probably limit overall storm coverage through much of the
   day, although some guidance indicates potential for isolated
   convective development with a weak sea breeze along/near the east
   coast of the FL Peninsula by late afternoon. Modestly enhanced
   mid-level flow will be present across this region along with weak to
   moderate instability, but poor mid-level lapse rates should
   generally limit the threat for organized severe storms.

   Farther west, isolated storms may develop Thursday afternoon/evening
   from the Four Corners region into parts of the central Rockies as
   cooling mid-level temperatures and ascent preceding an upper trough
   overspread these areas. Isolated, low-topped convection will also be
   possible in a post-frontal regime across mainly coastal portions of
   the Pacific Northwest. Weak instability across all these regions is
   expected to preclude any meaningful severe threat.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:  <2%     - None
   Wind:     <5%     - None
   Hail:     <5%     - None

   ..Gleason.. 10/16/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: October 16, 2019
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