SPC AC 141700
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
Strong thunderstorms may impact mainly the North Carolina Outer
Banks vicinity and nearby coastal areas Thursday afternoon,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.
While ridging within the mid-latitude westerlies rebuilds across the
northeast Pacific, models indicate that flow downstream will
transition to broadly cyclonic and northwesterly, from the lee of
the Canadian Rockies through the lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic
region. This regime may include a number of embedded short wave
troughs, the most significant of which appears likely to contribute
to the northeastward acceleration of a lower/mid tropospheric
cyclone now deepening over the Ark-La-Tex into Mid South vicinity.
Models suggest that the mid-level low will probably continue east
northeastward across the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valley vicinity during
the day Thursday, before transitioning to an open wave while
accelerating toward northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas Thursday
night. In general, it still appears that this will support fairly
significant surface cyclogenesis near the Mid Atlantic coast,
roughly from eastern North Carolina through the Long Island vicinity
by 12Z Friday. The most rapid deepening of the surface low seems
most probable late Thursday through Thursday night, north/northeast
of the North Carolina coastal plain, but considerable spread remains
evident among the various model output concerning the synoptic and
Due to the apparent low predictability associated with the evolving
system, the extent of the risk for thunderstorms, both rooted within
and above the boundary layer inland of coastal areas, remains
unclear across the Mid Atlantic Coast region. However, other than
some lingering risk for thunderstorms mainly across the southeastern
Florida Peninsula coastal waters, convective potential elsewhere
across the U.S. appears negligible Thursday through Thursday night.
...Southern Mid Atlantic Coast region...
Convective potential will significantly hinge on the details of the
evolution of the synoptic and sub-synoptic features. This remains
unclear at this time, but highest thunderstorms probabilities appear
offshore, with any appreciable risk for boundary-layer based
thunderstorm development probably limited to the North Carolina
Outer Banks and nearby coastal areas. Maximum CAPE likely will
remain weak, well below 1000 J/kg, but strong lower/mid tropospheric
wind fields will contribute to at least some severe weather
potential. Given varying depictions of the low-level hodograph
structure evident in model forecast soundings, it remains unclear
whether a couple of damaging "straight-line" winds gusts or an
isolated tornado or two will be the most prominent threat.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: <5% - None
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