Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF AINSWORTH NEBRASKA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
AKRON COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 232...WW 233...WW 234...
DISCUSSION...AIR MASS ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT NOW VERY UNSTABLE AND
ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. WITH APPROACH OF S/WV TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND CONVERGENCE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALIZE
VICINITY COLD FRONT NEB. EVENTUALLY UPSLOPE WILL DEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY N OF FRONT IN NERN CO FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT BOTH MULTICELLULAR
AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. WHILE BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SUPERCELL...LARGE HAIL IS PRIMARY THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 235 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 292100Z - 300400Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NNE ANW/AINSWORTH NE/ - 50SSE AKO/AKRON CO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /27NNE ANW - 42SSE AKO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
LAT...LON 42979797 39500116 39500455 42970152
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 235 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 235
VALID 300235Z - 300340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MCK TO
10 WSW IML TO 45 NNW IML TO 20 N SNY.
..MEAD..05/30/10
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-063-069-071-075-085-089-091-101-
103-111-113-115-117-135-149-161-171-183-300340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD
BROWN CHASE CHERRY
CUSTER FRONTIER GARDEN
GARFIELD GRANT HAYES
HOLT HOOKER KEITH
KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN
LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS
ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 235
VALID 300140Z - 300240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 749.
..MEAD..05/30/10
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-075-087-095-115-121-125-300240-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-153-300240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE RAWLINS
$$
NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-033-041-049-057-063-069-071-075-085-
087-089-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-135-145-149-161-171-183-
300240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD
BROWN CHASE CHERRY
CHEYENNE CUSTER DEUEL
DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN
GARFIELD GRANT HAYES
HITCHCOCK HOLT HOOKER
KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON
PERKINS RED WILLOW ROCK
SHERIDAN THOMAS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 235
VALID 300030Z - 300140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/30/10
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-075-087-095-115-121-125-300140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-153-300140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE RAWLINS
$$
NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-033-041-049-057-063-069-071-075-085-
087-089-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-135-145-149-161-171-183-
300140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD
BROWN CHASE CHERRY
CHEYENNE CUSTER DEUEL
DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN
GARFIELD GRANT HAYES
HITCHCOCK HOLT HOOKER
KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON
PERKINS RED WILLOW ROCK
SHERIDAN THOMAS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 235
VALID 292330Z - 300040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/29/10
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-075-087-095-115-121-125-300040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-153-300040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE RAWLINS
$$
NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-033-041-049-057-063-069-071-075-085-
087-089-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-135-145-149-161-171-183-
300040-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD
BROWN CHASE CHERRY
CHEYENNE CUSTER DEUEL
DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN
GARFIELD GRANT HAYES
HITCHCOCK HOLT HOOKER
KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON
PERKINS RED WILLOW ROCK
SHERIDAN THOMAS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 235
VALID 292230Z - 292340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..05/29/10
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC001-005-075-087-095-115-121-125-292340-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ARAPAHOE LOGAN
MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK
WASHINGTON YUMA
$$
KSC023-153-292340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEYENNE RAWLINS
$$
NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-033-041-049-057-063-069-071-075-085-
087-089-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-135-145-149-161-171-183-
292340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD
BROWN CHASE CHERRY
CHEYENNE CUSTER DEUEL
DUNDY FRONTIER GARDEN
GARFIELD GRANT HAYES
HITCHCOCK HOLT HOOKER
KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON
PERKINS RED WILLOW ROCK
SHERIDAN THOMAS WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.