Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 530 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF ELY
MINNESOTA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BRAINERD MINNESOTA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 423...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT WITHIN A MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO
1500-2500 J/KG. THIS AREA OF INITIATION COINCIDES WITH THE SERN
EDGE OF 70-75 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK...RESULTING IN 45-50+ KT
DEEP...SWLY SHEAR. AS SUCH...SETUP WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL EVOLUTION
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING VERY LARGE HAIL. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MATURE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH WELL-DEFINED LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 424 TORNADO MN WI 032230Z - 040500Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25N ELO/ELY MN/ - 40ESE BRD/BRAINERD MN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /64ESE INL - 30ESE BRD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 48259056 46169209 46169461 48259316
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 424 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 424
VALID 040350Z - 040440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW DLH
TO 45 NE ELO.
..COHEN..06/04/11
ATTN...WFO...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC031-075-040440-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOK LAKE
$$
WIC013-031-129-040440-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURNETT DOUGLAS WASHBURN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 424
VALID 040240Z - 040340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW DLH TO
35 NNE ELO.
..COHEN..06/04/11
ATTN...WFO...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC031-075-040340-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COOK LAKE
$$
WIC013-031-129-040340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURNETT DOUGLAS WASHBURN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 424
VALID 040140Z - 040240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S BRD TO
30 ESE INL.
..COHEN..06/04/11
ATTN...WFO...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC017-031-075-115-137-040240-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARLTON COOK LAKE
PINE ST. LOUIS
$$
WIC013-031-129-040240-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURNETT DOUGLAS WASHBURN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 424
VALID 040030Z - 040140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..06/04/11
ATTN...WFO...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-017-031-061-075-115-137-040140-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN CARLTON COOK
ITASCA LAKE PINE
ST. LOUIS
$$
WIC013-031-129-040140-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURNETT DOUGLAS WASHBURN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 424
VALID 032340Z - 040040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..06/03/11
ATTN...WFO...DLH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 424
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MNC001-017-031-061-075-115-137-040040-
MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AITKIN CARLTON COOK
ITASCA LAKE PINE
ST. LOUIS
$$
WIC013-031-129-040040-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURNETT DOUGLAS WASHBURN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.