Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MONTANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...SUPERCELL STORMS ERUPTING ACROSS EASTERN MT AT PRESENT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SPREADS EAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AIDS LEE-SIDE
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A MORE
EXTENSIVE BOW ECHO ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH LATE EVENING WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER DARK.
TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS IN THE INITIAL AND TRANSITORY STAGES
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 165 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF MINOT
NORTH DAKOTA TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 322...WW 323...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 324 TORNADO MT ND SD 212020Z - 220400Z
AXIS..165 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
75NW MOT/MINOT ND/ - 35WSW Y22/LEMMON SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 145NM E/W /65NW MOT - 61NW DPR/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
LAT...LON 48979880 45689941 45680626 48970608
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 324 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 324
VALID 220305Z - 220440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MLS TO
35 ESE GDV TO 35 E N60 TO 30 ENE DVL.
..ROGERS..06/22/15
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...FGF...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 324
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-025-075-220440-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER FALLON
POWDER RIVER
$$
NDC001-007-011-015-021-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-057-
059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-220440-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN
BURLEIGH DICKEY EMMONS
FOSTER GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT
HETTINGER KIDDER LAMOURE
LOGAN MCINTOSH MERCER
MORTON OLIVER SHERIDAN
SIOUX SLOPE STARK
STUTSMAN WELLS
$$
SDC021-031-041-089-220440-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
MCPHERSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 324
VALID 220200Z - 220340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE GGW
TO 40 ESE ISN TO 55 ESE MOT TO 40 NE DVL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110
..ROGERS..06/22/15
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...FGF...ABR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 324
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-017-021-025-055-075-079-109-220340-
MT
. MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER CUSTER DAWSON
FALLON MCCONE POWDER RIVER
PRAIRIE WIBAUX
$$
NDC001-005-007-011-015-021-025-027-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-
047-051-053-055-057-059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-220340-
ND
. NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BENSON BILLINGS
BOWMAN BURLEIGH DICKEY
DUNN EDDY EMMONS
FOSTER GOLDEN VALLEY GRANT
HETTINGER KIDDER LAMOURE
LOGAN MCINTOSH MCKENZIE
MCLEAN MERCER MORTON
OLIVER SHERIDAN SIOUX
SLOPE STARK STUTSMAN
WELLS
$$
SDC021-031-041-089-220340-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY
MCPHERSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.