Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
700 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeastern New Mexico
Western and central Panhandle of Oklahoma
Western and central Panhandle of Texas
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 700 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should become increasingly organized through
this evening over northeastern NM, and spread/develop into the TX/OK
Panhandles this evening into tonight. Severe gusts and hail each
will be possible, with wind becoming a more dominant threat over
time.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest
of Clayton NM to 50 miles east southeast of Tucumcari NM. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 237...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
33025.
...Edwards
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
700 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeastern New Mexico
Western and central Panhandle of Oklahoma
Western and central Panhandle of Texas
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 700 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should become increasingly organized through
this evening over northeastern NM, and spread/develop into the TX/OK
Panhandles this evening into tonight. Severe gusts and hail each
will be possible, with wind becoming a more dominant threat over
time.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest
of Clayton NM to 50 miles east southeast of Tucumcari NM. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 237...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
33025.
...Edwards
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 238 SEVERE TSTM NM OK TX 260000Z - 260800Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NNW CAO/CLAYTON NM/ - 50ESE TCC/TUCUMCARI NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /23SSE TBE - 24N TXO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33025.
LAT...LON 36900149 34890093 34890464 36900529
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 238 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 238
VALID 260725Z - 260840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/26/23
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-037-047-260840-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY QUAY SAN MIGUEL
$$
TXC011-065-117-381-260840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON DEAF SMITH
RANDALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 238
VALID 260550Z - 260640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE LVS
TO 30 NNE TCC TO 15 SSE DHT TO 35 SSW GUY TO 25 W LBL.
..BROYLES..05/26/23
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-037-047-260640-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY QUAY SAN MIGUEL
$$
TXC011-065-117-195-233-341-359-375-381-260640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON DEAF SMITH
HANSFORD HUTCHINSON MOORE
OLDHAM POTTER RANDALL
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 238
VALID 260426Z - 260540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW TCC TO
40 E LVS TO 50 ENE LVS TO 40 WSW DHT TO 20 ESE DHT TO 30 SW GUY
TO 10 NW GUY TO 15 E EHA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 870.
..EDWARDS..05/26/23
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-021-037-047-059-260540-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY HARDING QUAY
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC139-260540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-117-195-205-233-341-359-375-381-421-260540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON DEAF SMITH
HANSFORD HARTLEY HUTCHINSON
MOORE OLDHAM POTTER
RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 238
VALID 260336Z - 260440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW TCC
TO 40 E LVS TO 50 ENE LVS TO 45 SSW CAO TO 5 N DHT TO 30 WSW GUY
TO EHA.
..EDWARDS..05/26/23
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-021-037-047-059-260440-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY HARDING QUAY
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC139-260440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-111-117-195-205-233-341-359-375-381-421-260440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HANSFORD HARTLEY
HUTCHINSON MOORE OLDHAM
POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 238
VALID 260240Z - 260340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW TCC
TO 45 S RTN TO 5 NW EHA.
..WENDT..05/26/23
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC009-021-037-047-059-260340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CURRY HARDING QUAY
SAN MIGUEL UNION
$$
OKC025-139-260340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-111-117-195-205-233-341-359-375-381-421-260340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HANSFORD HARTLEY
HUTCHINSON MOORE OLDHAM
POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 238
VALID 260210Z - 260340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S LVS TO
25 SSW RTN TO 10 SSW SPD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 869
..DEAN..05/26/23
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC007-009-021-033-037-047-059-260340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX CURRY HARDING
MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
OKC025-139-260340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-111-117-195-205-233-341-359-375-381-421-260340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HANSFORD HARTLEY
HUTCHINSON MOORE OLDHAM
POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 238
VALID 260100Z - 260240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..05/26/23
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC007-009-021-033-037-047-059-260240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX CURRY HARDING
MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
OKC025-139-260240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON TEXAS
$$
TXC011-065-111-117-195-205-233-341-359-375-381-421-260240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG CARSON DALLAM
DEAF SMITH HANSFORD HARTLEY
HUTCHINSON MOORE OLDHAM
POTTER RANDALL SHERMAN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
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