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Mesoscale Discussion 284
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122205Z - 130000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A
   MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL.
   WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX TRANS-PECOS
   AND PERMIAN BASIN. FORCING FROM ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS COLD POOL GENERATION ALONG THE NRN REACHES OF
   A SQUALL LINE IN NRN MEXICO...APPEAR TO BE MAINTAINING THIS
   CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST
   A FEW WEAK ELEVATED CORES ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH /CLOSER TO
   THE DRYLINE/ ACROSS THE TX SRN HIGH PLAINS. LATEST MAF/LUB VWPS
   INDICATE RELATIVELY MEAGER BULK SHEAR...SUGGESTING MOST UPDRAFTS
   WILL STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE. HOWEVER...MLCAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
   HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
   MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS...AND CONTINUAL ZDR COLUMN DEVELOPMENT
   SUGGESTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW VIGOROUS
   UPDRAFTS. 

   KMAF DATA HAVE DEPICTED SOME WEAK/OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL ROTATION
   WITHIN A FEW CELLS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OF HAIL
   GROWTH. A MARGINAL WIND THREAT IS ALSO APPARENT...RESULTING FROM
   COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE TEMPS
   HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S. NONETHELESS...AS ANY SEVERE STORMS ARE
   FORECAST TO BE ISOLATED...THE MARGINAL THREAT LIKELY WILL NOT
   REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 04/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30880282 31930283 33320270 33560241 33610124 33460024
               32580044 31090087 30620140 30580237 30880282 

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Page last modified: April 13, 2015
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