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Mesoscale Discussion 284
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0284
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N TX INTO WRN/CNTRL OK AND S-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 301800Z - 302000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS. WW
   ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG/E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK
   AND SERN KS REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AS OF 18Z...POSING MAINLY AN
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. FURTHER W...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL KS
   INTO NWRN OK AND THEN SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE EXTENDS
   SWD FROM THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN OK INTO W TX.

   BETWEEN THESE SFC FEATURES AND ELEVATED CONVECTION TO E...A
   RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEATING HAS OCCURRED THROUGH THE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 70S
   TO AROUND 80. GIVEN THIS MODEST DIURNAL HEATING...A MOIST LOW-LEVEL
   AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-2000
   J/KG/ IS GENERALLY PRESENT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
   SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT/DRYLINE AS A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
   REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...SOME OF
   WHICH MAY BE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND ISOLATED
   STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

   THE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS LESS CLEAR...WITH A
   VEER-BACK-VEER SIGNATURE PRESENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IN THE
   KTLX VWP SUGGESTING THE INITIAL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE LIMITED
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO
   INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND 0-1 KM WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE
   BACKED...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE SOME
   AROUND 00-02Z.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   37019830 38049791 38269735 37889642 36979664 35129696
               33689744 33229836 33339939 34379923 37019830 

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Page last modified: March 30, 2016
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