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Mar 29, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 29 05:31:15 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150329 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150329 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 290531

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1231 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN STATES
   DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
   SOUTHEAST...MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
   WILL PROGRESS OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST MON NIGHT AS
   AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARDS
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN MID-LEVEL
   W/NWLYS OVER THE S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK SRN-STREAM
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD REACH BAJA CA SUR BY
   EARLY TUE. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGELY W/E-ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL
   SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE DECAYING MON NIGHT. TRAILING
   PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DIFFUSE BUT SHOULD SLOWLY ADVANCE N
   AS A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS.

   ...SOUTHEAST...
   GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE
   FRONT AND THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT. WITH MEAN
   MIXING RATIOS OF ONLY 3-6 G/KG SAMPLED IN CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST
   29/00Z RAOBS...AND A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS STILL
   PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN PER GOES PW IMAGERY...THE DRIER
   SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE SHORT PERIOD
   FOR FURTHER AIR MASS MODIFICATION.

   DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   MID-LEVEL NWLYS SHOULD YIELD MODERATELY STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
   RATES. ON THE FRINGE OF MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A RISK FOR
   LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL MAY DEVELOP. BUT WITH WEAK
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING FRONTAL PLACEMENT/BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...THIS RISK
   APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.

   ...RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH...
   VAST DIFFERENCES EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE OVER PLACEMENT OF THE DIFFUSE
   FRONT AND DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL WAA
   WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT N OF THE BOUNDARY AMIDST MODEST S/SWLY FLOW.
   700-MB WLYS MAY MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT EML CAPPING TO COMPLETELY
   PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A CORRIDOR OF
   ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD FORM TOWARDS 12Z/TUE. GIVEN SUCH LOW
   CONFIDENCE...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
   HAIL.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: March 29, 2015
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