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Oct 23, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 23 04:53:02 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20171023 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20171023 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 230453

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
   HUDSON VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of the
   Northeast, particularly near the northern Mid Atlantic coast
   northward through the Hudson Valley.  These storms will be
   accompanied by the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and
   possibly a couple of tornadoes.

   ...Synopsis...
   While another short wave trough progresses inland across the
   Canadian Rockies, around the crest of broad upper ridging extending 
   across the eastern Pacific through the U.S. Rockies, models indicate
   that large-scale troughing east of the Mississippi Valley may still
   amplify further through this period.  Within the northern portion of
   this troughing, a significant embedded short wave perturbation may
   gradually take on more of a negative tilt while advancing toward the
   lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley region.  The southern portion of
   the large-scale trough may maintain a positive tilt, as another
   significant short wave impulse digs across and southeast of the
   mid/lower Mississippi Valley.

   It still appears that an associated surface cold front will precede
   the mid-level cold core of the eastern upper troughing, with perhaps
   an initial shallow surge reaching the south Atlantic coast/northern
   Florida and eastern Gulf of Mexico by 12Z Tuesday.  The deeper
   primary cool surge, trailing southward from an occluding cyclone
   migrating northeast of the Great Lakes region, may not reach eastern
   portions of New York and Pennsylvania until late Tuesday night.

   Of particular concern to severe weather potential is the increasing
   likelihood of seasonably high moisture content advecting northward
   within a narrow pre-frontal plume across the northern Mid Atlantic
   Coast region through portions of western New England, coincident
   with a belt of rather strong lower/mid tropospheric flow on the
   order of 40-60+ kt.

   ...Northeast...
   Relatively warm mid-level air atop the corridor of low-level
   moisture return, and considerable cloud cover within, remain
   potential limiting factors with regard to destabilization.  However,
   latest forecast soundings appear increasingly suggestive that the
   moistening will be sufficient to contribute to CAPE near or in
   excess of 500 J/kg, particularly within a corridor from portions of
   the Delmarva Peninsula northward through the Hudson Valley.  And
   this CAPE probably will extend through the favorable mixed phase
   layer for charge separation and lightning production.

   Perhaps aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent downstream of the
   approaching northern short wave impulse, thunderstorms are expected
   to develop and increase in coverage Tuesday afternoon.  This may
   take the form of broken lines of storms, accompanied by the risk for
   potentially damaging wind gusts.  However, discrete storm
   development also appears possible.  Given the potential moist nature
   of the boundary layer, in the presence of large clockwise curved
   low-level hodographs, a couple of tornadoes may not be out of the
   question.

   ..Kerr.. 10/23/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: October 23, 2017
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