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May 22, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 22 05:25:52 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150522 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150522 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 220525

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX TO  NERN CO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SW TX TO THE NEBRASKA
   PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE
   HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   WEAK 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
   SATURDAY AHEAD OF LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE
   ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED
   TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE EARLY AND CONVECTION MAY
   BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO EJECT INTO
   THE HIGH PLAINS.  SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
   LIMIT BUOYANCY ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AND LATEST
   SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER MEAGER
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR.  THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR STEEP
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE ACROSS POST-DRY LINE NM/CO EXTENDING JUST
   DOWNSTREAM INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF PRE-DRY LINE WEST TX INTO
   EXTREME WRN KS.  EARLY-DAY CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD AS LLJ
   SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM...BUT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD ONLY BE
   MODESTLY UNSTABLE...BUT FAIRLY MOIST WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.75
   INCHES TO NEAR THE KS BORDER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
   SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR AND FAVORABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT FOR
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND
   POSSIBLE MCS COMPLEXES COULD COMPLICATE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF
   THIS REGION.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF STEEP LAPSE
   RATES FROM WEST TX INTO NERN CO.  ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE
   HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS SATURDAY
   AS FORECAST SHEAR APPEARS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING
   ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...EVEN IN REGIONS WHERE BUOYANCY MAY BE LESS THAN
   IDEAL.  SEVERE THREAT WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
   UPPER TROUGH/FORCING SHIFT EAST.

   ..DARROW.. 05/22/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 22, 2015
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