Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Jun 29, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 29 05:46:29 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160629 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160629 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 290546

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS THE SRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC AND SRN
   VA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND
   LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH CAROLINA
   AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.

   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AS WEST TO NORTHWEST
   MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN NRN OK AS A COLD FRONT
   ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
   FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS FAR NRN OK AND IN SRN KS WHERE THE
   AIRMASS WILL BE VERY MOIST. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A POCKET OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION POSSIBLE ALONG OR
   JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ALONG PARTS OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE LOWER MO
   VALLEY.

   THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE IN SE KS
   WHERE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F WITH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
   PRESENT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THIS
   WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THE VERY
   MOIST AIRMASS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS
   AS WELL.

   ...NC AND SRN VA...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A LEE
   TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS CNTRL NC AND SE VA ALONG WHICH LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME MAXIMIZED AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   WILL BECOME LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOIST BOUNDARY COMBINED
   WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES.. 06/29/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 29, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities