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Apr 21, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 21 05:37:26 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140421 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140421 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 210439

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY FORM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHWEST
   KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
   HOURS.

   ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. DURING
   THE DAY2 PERIOD AS VIGOROUS TROUGH PROGRESSES TOWARD THE NRN/CNTRL
   ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD.  LATEST NAM/GFS AGREE THAT A 70KT 500MB
   SPEED MAX WILL EJECT ACROSS UT INTO SERN WY//NRN CO BY
   23/12Z...ALTHOUGH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

   WHILE TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LAG DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
   CONVECTION...WELL DEFINED LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE
   FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
   THE MID 70S...LIKELY BY 21Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NWRN KS INTO
   SERN MT SUGGEST NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM
   WITH VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT.  WILL MAINTAIN
   5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT FOR A LOW RISK
   OF HAIL/WIND WITH STRONGLY SHEARED/HIGH-BASED CONVECTION.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH STRENGTHENING
   LLJ ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED TSTM THREAT
   AFTER DARK.

   ...ERN U.S...

   STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY TUESDAY
   WITH EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
   ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY.  COLD MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES COULD ENHANCE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT AS 500MB
   READINGS ARE FORECAST AOB -18C ACROSS PA/NY.  EVEN SO...THE PROSPECT
   FOR HAIL GREATER THAN ONE INCH APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE
   PROBS.

   SCT CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN U.S./GULF
   STATES ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAKLY-CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE.  FORECAST WEAK
   LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE
   PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED OR ROBUST.

   ..DARROW.. 04/21/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 21, 2014
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