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May 3, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 3 05:30:10 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160503 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160503 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 030530

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
   WEDNESDAY...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
   HAIL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.

   ...FL...

   EARLY-EVENING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICT A
   WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NEBRASKA.  THIS
   FEATURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY2
   PERIOD...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL GOM AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF
   FL BY 05/12Z.

   SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG
   THE SYNOPTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...AND IMMEDIATELY
   AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF. 
   WHILE BUOYANCY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE
   PENINSULA...REASONABLY HIGH PW AND 35-40KT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
   SUGGEST STRONG CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.  IT APPEARS
   SFC FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM INITIATION AS IT SURGES
   SEWD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING ERN U.S. TROUGH.  SCT CONVECTION MAY
   ALSO EVOLVE IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE DESPITE DEEPENING WLY FLOW
   REGIME.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS WILL
   BE THE MOST COMMON STORM MODE AND GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES TO TN VALLEY REGION...

   FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT...WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPSTREAM DIGGING
   JET...WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID DAY FROM THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY.  QUITE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   WILL SPREAD SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z WITH 500MB READINGS AOB
   -20C NORTHEAST OF THE DIGGING JET.  THIS SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
   AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FAIRLY EARLY ALONG SFC WIND
   SHIFT.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...ROBUST UPDRAFTS
   COULD GENERATE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE COLD THERMAL PROFILES.  AT THIS
   TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR
   MEANINGFUL SEVERE.

   ..DARROW.. 05/03/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 03, 2016
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