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Sep 2, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 2 04:32:06 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140902 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140902 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 020432

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS...

   WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NRN HIGH PLAINS SPEED MAX.  IN RESPONSE TO
   APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING SHOULD
   ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE MID MS/MID MO VALLEY REGION AS NW-SE ORIENTED
   WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO A POSITION FROM SERN WI...NWWD ACROSS SRN
   MN INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS.  WARM ADVECTION/ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF
   THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR
   POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   EARLY IN THE PERIOD SCT WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING
   FROM PORTIONS OF MO...NWD INTO MN.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
   ROOTED AOA 850MB AND GIVEN MODEST MUCAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 2000
   J/KG...A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS COULD GENERATE HAIL.  LATEST
   SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
   COULD EVOLVE ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SRN MN INTO WCNTRL WI. 
   STRONG INSTABILITY MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THIS REGION AS 70S SFC DEW
   POINTS RETURN BENEATH STRENGTHENING LLJ.  WHILE WEAK WARM ADVECTION
   IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   EXHIBIT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING
   SUPERCELLS.  SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH STORMS THAT MANAGE
   TO ROOT INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED
   WITH NEAR-SFC BASED SUPERCELLS.

   FARTHER WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVANCE WEST ACROSS THE
   DAKOTAS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.  EVEN SO...FORCING IMMEDIATELY
   AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ENCOURAGE ISOLATED ROBUST
   CONVECTION WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED AIRMASS ALONG ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT.  GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE NOTED.

   ..DARROW.. 09/02/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 02, 2014
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