SPC AC 050553
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2017
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Thunderstorms are expected from parts of southern New England and
the Mid-Atlantic into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, Mid-South, and
Ozarks on Monday. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.
Fast/weakly cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to prevail across the
majority of the U.S. Monday, south and east of positively tilted
troughing extending from central Canada west-southwest across the
northern Intermountain region.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward
across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic region, and should shift
offshore during the evening. Meanwhile, trailing parts of the front
should drift much more slowly southward across the Tennessee and
Lower Mississippi Valleys and southern Plains.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing ahead of the
front, though weak instability will prevail over the warm sector,
precluding appreciable risk for severe weather. Farther south,
greater moisture will be present near the boundary, but combination
of weak lapse rates/modest CAPE and a lack of ascent near the
largely non-convergent west-to-east front suggests that any
convection will remain weak. Finally, low-level warm advection
associated with a southwesterly low-level jet may provide sufficient
ascent atop the front -- particularly across the Ozarks/Arklatex
region -- to support elevated convection, mainly during the second
half of the period. However, lack of sufficient CAPE suggests that
storms will remain sub-severe.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z