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Sep 26, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 26 06:00:19 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160926 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160926 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 260600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WHILE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
   AND/OR SOUTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
   CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

   ...MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST STATES...
   THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GENERALLY SETTLE
   SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT OCCURRING
   AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. AS THIS
   OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND EXIT MUCH OF THE
   NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE OTHERWISE SPREADING
   SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACHING PARTS OF GA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
   MEXICO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

   NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER
   THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND THE
   CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY EAST GA...ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. A VERY LOCALIZED WIND-DAMAGE RISK
   CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEAR
   UNLIKELY.

   ...SOUTHERN AZ...
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
   PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHWEST MEXICO/BAJA VICINITY UPPER LOW. WHILE
   HEATING/BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE ROBUST...RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /AROUND 30 KT EFFECTIVE/
   COULD SUPPORT SOME SEMI-SUSTAINED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL
   AND WIND. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IS CURRENTLY
   UNCERTAIN OWING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER/EARLY-DAY
   PRECIPITATION...THE REGION WILL BE REEXAMINED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS FOR
   THE POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ..GUYER.. 09/26/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 26, 2016
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