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Aug 30, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 30 04:41:59 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140830 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140830 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 300441

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
   MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST INTO KANSAS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO CNTRL PLAINS...

   MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG TROUGH THAT WILL PROGRESS
   ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY MID DAY...THEN INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY BY
   01/12Z.  WHILE THIS TROUGH IS MULTI-FACETED THE PRIMARY SPEED
   MAX...50KT+ AT 500MB...OF CONCERN IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS CO
   INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD
   ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITHIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL
   FLOW REGIME.

   EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG
   THE NOSE OF LLJ ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY.  THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD BE ROOTED AOA 850MB AND THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
   SHOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEFORE THEY PROPAGATE INTO SRN
   MANITOBA.  HOWEVER...GREATER SEVERE RISK WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...FORCING
   SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG FROM CNTRL MN...SWWD INTO KS.  LATEST
   THINKING IS FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 21Z WITHIN AN
   INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD INITIALLY SUPPORT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL KS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
   HIGH-BASED AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 90S.  HOWEVER...UPDRAFTS
   THAT EVOLVE ACROSS NEB INTO MN WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER AND
   MULTIPLE HP SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE STORM
   MERGERS RESULT IN AN ELONGATED MCS-TYPE COMPLEX.  LARGE HAIL IS
   LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BE NOTED.  A
   FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH EARLY DISCRETE SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES.  FRONTAL MCS SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE MID-UPPER MS
   VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

   ...ELSEWHERE...

   VERY MOIST TROPICAL PLUME WILL ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD THEN ADVECT ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY
   REGION SUNDAY.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN
   THIS TROPICAL PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
   BUOYANCY.  FORECAST SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR ADEQUATE TO WARRANT
   MEANINGFUL SEVERE PROBS.

   ..DARROW.. 08/30/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 30, 2014
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