SPC AC 250518
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OREGON INTO IDAHO...
Isolated severe hail or wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon
from central Oregon into Idaho, with a few strong thunderstorms
across the central and southern High Plains.
An upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten as a shortwave trough
approaches from the west, with cold front affecting eastern WA and
OR during the afternoon resulting in thunderstorms. To the east, a
large area of cyclonic flow aloft will extend from the upper MS
Valley to the East Coast during the day, but with rising heights
across western portions late in the period. Meanwhile, a relatively
stable air mass will remain from the northern Plains into the
Southeast due to high pressure. However, weak southeasterly surface
winds will maintain a relatively moist air mass from TX westward
into the southern High Plains, supporting scattered storms.
...Central Oregon into Idaho...
Cooling aloft with the shortwave trough as well as heating will lead
to a steep-lapse-rate environment which will maximize instability
despite relatively weak moisture magnitude. Storms are expected to
initiate by late afternoon along the front, eventually spreading
into Idaho mainly north of the Snake River Valley. MUCAPE values of
500-1000 J/kg are expected which will support marginally severe hail
and possibly damaging outflow winds.
...South central CO into NM and west TX...
A few areas of rain and storms may be ongoing across eastern NM or
west TX Monday morning, but with low severe potential. Strong
heating over NM and CO will aid in destabilization with marginal
instability levels supporting a few strong to severe storms. Shear
profiles will be weaken than on previous day, but isolated severe
hail or wind are possible.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z