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Sep 17, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 17 05:43:34 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140917 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140917 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 170543

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
   THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
   STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE HAIL AND STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
   OZARKS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

   ...NRN PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON
   THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
   DEEPEN AS SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS ERN MT THURSDAY AS
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE
   TO A CAPPING INVERSION. BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND A WEAKENING CAP SHOULD
   ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WRN DAKOTAS.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MINOT AND DICKENSON ND AT 03Z/FRIDAY SHOW
   SBCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 K SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE
   AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD ENABLE
   STORMS TO BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. WARM AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED AND MAY
   HINDER UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.

   ..BROYLES.. 09/17/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 17, 2014
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