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Jul 27, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 27 05:58:48 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160727 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160727 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 270558

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF SERN WY...WRN
   NEB...NERN CO...WRN KS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF SERN VA AND NERN
   NC...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
   INTO THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OTHER STRONG
   STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN
   AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BELT OF MODERATE WLY FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE PAC NW EWD ACROSS THE
   NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...ALONG THE NRN
   PERIPHERY OF A PAIR OF MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN AND OFF CAROLINA COAST. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE INITIALLY OVER THE
   NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING
   THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO
   THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SRN NEW
   ENGLAND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WHILE A SEPARATE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
   SWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. 

   ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
   A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND
   OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTION MAY
   BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT/WY AND THE WRN DAKOTAS AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD. A CORRIDOR OF MID-50S TO LOW-60S F DEWPOINTS
   SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM CNTRL KS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
   WITHIN AN UPSLOPE REGIME. NWRN SEGMENT OF COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
   STALL OVER WRN ND OR ERN MT...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT SLOWLY
   ADVANCES SWD ACROSS SD INTO NRN NEB. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
   DELINEATE THE ERN PORTION OF THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND EARLY
   CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS MAY PERSIST AND INTENSIFY
   WHILE MOVING SEWD INTO WRN SD AND ERN WY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
   AFTERNOON. 

   THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE E OF THE FRONT RANGE
   ACROSS SERN WY INTO NERN CO AND SWRN NEB...WHERE STRONG HEATING
   SHOULD ENCOURAGE TSTM INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO
   STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG
   WINDS...AND A TORNADO ALL POSSIBLE. STRENGTHENING OF THE NOCTURNAL
   LLJ FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT UPSCALE
   GROWTH INTO A SEWD MOVING MCS THU EVENING...PERHAPS REACHING S-CNTRL
   KS AND NRN OK BY THE END OF THE D2 PERIOD.

   ...SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
   A MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE /PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES/ AS 
   30-40 KT OF SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WEAK SFC LOW
   IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NC...WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWD
   ACROSS CNTRL VA...WHILE STALLED SYNOPTIC FRONT IS POSITIONED NEAR
   THE MD/PA BORDER. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
   NEWD DURING THE DAY...AHEAD OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
   CROSS THE APPALACHIANS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD
   BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...WHILE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO THE VA
   TIDEWATER AND NRN NC...WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING. MODERATELY
   STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
   THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR FARTHER W/N ACROSS VA
   AND NRN NC...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SLIGHT
   RISK EXPANSION IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

   ..ROGERS.. 07/27/2016

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 27, 2016
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