Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Apr 27, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 27 05:36:54 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170427 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170427 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 270536

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA
   INTO A PORTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe storms remain possible on Friday from a portion of
   the southern Plains into the lower to middle Mississippi, Ohio and
   Tennessee Valleys.

   ...Southern Plains through lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...

   Embedded within a broad synoptic trough, a lead shortwave trough
   initially over the central Plains will deamplify and weaken as it
   moves into the Great Lakes area. Farther upstream an upper trough
   will amplify near the Four Corners region. At the surface a warm
   front will develop northward through north TX and OK eastward into
   the OH Valley, while a cold front advances south through the central
   Plains. Dryline will evolve across west-central into northwest TX or
   southwest OK during the afternoon where it will intersect the
   warm/quasi-stationary front.

   Height rises will occur from the southern Plains to the TN Valley in
   wake of the lead shortwave trough that will move toward the Great
   Lakes. Limited synoptic forcing for ascent and convective inhibition
   resulting from eastward expansion of the EML should limit
   thunderstorm initiation during the day over most of the warm sector.
   Some chance for isolated thunderstorm initiation will exist at the
   intersection of dryline and front over northwest TX into southwest
   OK by late afternoon. Large CAPE and strong vertical shear will
   favor a conditional risk for supercells with very large hail and a
   few tornadoes should such initiation occur. Rich low-level moisture
   with large CAPE but strong convective inhibition will reside south
   of the warm/Quasistationary front. The best chance for widespread
   thunderstorm initiation will occur during the evening and overnight
   from OK into northern AR, MO and into the TN and OH valleys as a
   strong, broad low-level jet enhances convergence and isentropic
   ascent within the strengthening baroclinic zone. Strong vertical
   shear profiles and instability will support organized storms
   including supercells with large to very large hail and damaging wind
   the main threats, though a few tornadoes may also occur with any
   surface-based storms developing closer to the warm front.

   ..Dial.. 04/27/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 27, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities