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Jun 25, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 25 05:18:27 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170625 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170625 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 250518

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
   OREGON INTO IDAHO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe hail or wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon
   from central Oregon into Idaho, with a few strong thunderstorms
   across the central and southern High Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge over the Rockies will flatten as a shortwave trough
   approaches from the west, with cold front affecting eastern WA and
   OR during the afternoon resulting in thunderstorms. To the east, a
   large area of cyclonic flow aloft will extend from the upper MS
   Valley to the East Coast during the day, but with rising heights
   across western portions late in the period. Meanwhile, a relatively
   stable air mass will remain from the northern Plains into the
   Southeast due to high pressure. However, weak southeasterly surface
   winds will maintain a relatively moist air mass from TX westward
   into the southern High Plains, supporting scattered storms.

   ...Central Oregon into Idaho...
   Cooling aloft with the shortwave trough as well as heating will lead
   to a steep-lapse-rate environment which will maximize instability
   despite relatively weak moisture magnitude. Storms are expected to
   initiate by late afternoon along the front, eventually spreading
   into Idaho mainly north of the Snake River Valley. MUCAPE values of
   500-1000 J/kg are expected which will support marginally severe hail
   and possibly damaging outflow winds.

   ...South central CO into NM and west TX...
   A few areas of rain and storms may be ongoing across eastern NM or
   west TX Monday morning, but with low severe potential. Strong
   heating over NM and CO will aid in destabilization with marginal
   instability levels supporting a few strong to severe storms. Shear
   profiles will be weaken than on previous day, but isolated severe
   hail or wind are possible.

   ..Jewell.. 06/25/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: June 25, 2017
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