SPC AC 120507
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 PM CST Sat Mar 11 2017
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Weak elevated thunderstorms are possible from the Appalachians to
the east coast, with other isolated activity possible across parts
of the central Gulf coast and Florida. A strong storm cannot totally
be ruled out over far eastern North Carolina late Monday night.
A potent shortwave trough will eject negatively tilted from the
middle MS valley toward the Mid Atlantic, with weak surface low
across the Ohio valley during the day. By Monday night, a secondary
and deeper low will develop across far eastern NC and VA, with
perhaps mid 50s dewpoints arriving across the outer banks. Mainly
weak elevated instability will develop across the Mid Atlantic,
supporting mainly non-severe thunderstorms. To the south, winds will
quickly veer across FL but isolated weak showers/thunderstorms will
be possible during the day.
...Eastern North Carolina, Virginia, Delmarva...
Several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE is forecast by the NAM over the area
Monday night as strong cooling aloft overspreads increasing theta-e
in the 850-700 mb layer. The most likely outcome is for the
immediate surface to be stable, especially from Virginia north.
However, there is a low possibility of non-zero SBCAPE developing
across far eastern North Carolina Monday night. This could result in
a marginal severe wind or brief/weak tornado threat, but potential
is currently too low and the most likely scenario is for the more
unstable surface air to remain offshore. Still, given the degree of
elevated instability and cool profiles at the surface, a few clicks
of very small hail cannot be ruled out.
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