Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Dec 21, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Dec 21 06:58:54 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141221 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141221 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 210658

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF LA AND MS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
   MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A MARGINAL RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST
   LATER MONDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER
   OVER THE CNTRL U.S. MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER JET DEVELOPS SWWD INTO
   THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
   COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH
   ERN TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WARM FRONT
   WILL LIFT NWD INTO TO THE GULF COAST REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

   THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY WITH A
   BROAD FETCH OF SLY NEAR-SFC WINDS SUPPORTING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
   60S TO NEAR 70 F OFFSHORE AND LOW-MID 60S ADVECTING INLAND MONDAY
   NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   SPREAD EWD AND EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT WRN FRINGE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE MUCAPE COULD
   APPROACH 1500 J/KG MONDAY NIGHT. CAPE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FARTHER
   EAST INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT
   AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER MONDAY
   NIGHT...MOST LIKELY ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE EML WHERE THE CAP WILL
   BE WEAKER FROM A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST
   STATES. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODEST
   CAPE RAISES CONCERN FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. TIME OF DAY
   AND LIKELIHOOD THAT RICHER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE SUGGEST
   CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE SFC
   LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY
   HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

   ..DIAL.. 12/21/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: December 21, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities