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Jan 31, 2015 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 31 06:26:46 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150131 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150131 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 310626

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL TO
   SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
   SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH
   EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
   MID MS AND TN VALLEYS. CONCURRENTLY...A SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILT
   TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE BAJA AREA AND NORTHERN
   MEXICO. THE NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
   FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH TX AND THE SERN STATES. BY THE
   END OF THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER THE
   MID-ATLANTIC AREA SWWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF.

   ...CNTRL AND SRN TX THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...


   MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 50S TO 60F LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL
   ADVECT INLAND THROUGH SERN TX INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
   STATES WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...MODEST 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND
   AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
   500 J/KG. A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
   EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
   SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. OTHER MORE SHALLOW CONVECTION AND
   POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST WITHIN A ZONE
   OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FROM THE NCNTRL GULF INTO THE SERN
   STATES. 

   WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN /PARTICULARLY FROM
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN U.S./ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MIGHT
   EVOLVE...MAINLY OVER SERN TX WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
   COULD DEVELOP IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS IN WAKE OF
   ANY EARLY CONVECTION. DUE TO AN EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...OVERALL THREAT REMAINS TOO CONDITIONAL TO INTRODUCE
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

   ..DIAL.. 01/31/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: January 31, 2015
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