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Mar 13, 2016 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 13 06:54:11 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160313 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160313 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 130654

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CST SUN MAR 13 2016

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO NC/SRN
   VA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO
   NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   HAZARDS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS
   ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TOWARDS THE VA/NC COAST. A STOUT SURFACE
   ANTICYCLONE SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A RIDGE
   EXTENDING SW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE NORTHWEST...AN
   UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SHOULD BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUE.

   ...CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO NC/SRN VA...
   IN SPITE OF THE SLOW DAMPENING NATURE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
   THROUGH MON AFTERNOON DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
   PLATEAU/ADJACENT PORTION OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
   SCATTERED THUNDER DEVELOPING MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON. BUOYANCY SHOULD
   REMAIN WEAK EVEN WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   FARTHER EAST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC/FAR SRN VA...GREATER
   BUOYANCY SHOULD BE PREVALENT IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN SOMEWHAT RICHER
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH THE REMNANT EML PLUME THAT EMANATES
   FROM THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
   PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THIS FAR EAST GIVEN THE
   COMPACT NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 

   ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MODERATE WITH
   STRONGER WLYS DISPLACED SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
   OVERALL SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE LACK OF OVERLAP BETWEEN FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS
   LOW PROBABILITIES ARE MOST APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME FRAME.

   ...CNTRL GREAT PLAINS...
   A COUPLE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD FORM MON NIGHT AS FORCING
   FOR ASCENT STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
   WITH PREVAILING WLYS IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE GULF...MOISTURE
   AVAILABILITY WILL BE MODEST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH THE
   TIMING OF MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTION...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING ON
   THE SLOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM. AS SUCH...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
   DEGREE OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WHICH AFFECTS CONFIDENCE IN ASSESSING
   HAIL POTENTIAL THIS OUTLOOK.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/13/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: March 13, 2016
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