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Dec 10, 2016 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 10 06:50:32 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20161210 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20161210 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 100650

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms may occur across parts of the lower and mid
   Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Sunday.  Showers and a few/occasional
   lightning strikes may also occur over portions of the coastal
   Pacific Northwest.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   Low-amplitude cyclonic flow aloft will reside over virtually the
   entire lower 48 states through the entire Day 2 (Sunday) period, as
   an embedded short-wave trough moves quickly eastward across the
   north-central U.S. and into the Upper Great Lakes region late.

   At the surface, a developing low over the upper Midwest during the
   afternoon should move northeast across the upper Great Lakes region
   ahead of the aforementioned upper trough, while a trailing cold
   front shifts eastward/southeastward across the
   Midwest/Ozarks/southern Plains with time.  Elsewhere, high pressure
   will generally prevail.

   ...LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS...
   A strong (70 kt.) south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast
   ahead of the advancing upper short-wave trough, resulting in a broad
   zone of warm advection roughly atop the surface frontal zone.  As
   the low-level theta-e advection permits eventual development of weak
   elevated CAPE, showers and occasional/embedded thunderstorms are
   forecast to develop -- mainly during the second half of the period. 
   Despite strong shear, weak instability should preclude appreciable
   hail risk.

   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS...
   Cold air aloft and strong west-northwesterly flow through the lower
   half of the troposphere will support showers -- and likely
   occasional lightning -- along windward slopes of the higher terrain
   of western WA/western OR.  

   ...ELSEWHERE...
   Showers are forecast to increase through the period along the
   southeast U.S. coastal areas from FL to the Carolinas.  While a
   thunderstorm or two may also evolve across FL, most of the lightning
   risk should remain offshore.

   ..Goss.. 12/10/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: December 10, 2016
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