SPC AC 130551
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
   THE EASTERN PACIFIC...TOWARD CANADIAN AND U.S. PACIFIC COASTAL
   AREAS...DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE BEGINS TO
   EMERGE FROM A STRONG UPSTREAM MID LATITUDE PACIFIC JET.  TO THE EAST
   OF THIS FEATURE...A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BRANCHES OF STRONGER FLOW ARE
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST...BUT VARIABILITY INCREASES AMONG THE MODEL DATA
   CONCERNING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
   STATES INTO THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
   SIMILAR...SUGGESTING THAT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
   WILL DIG ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN
   SIERRA NEVADA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS...A
   DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW/TROUGH LIKELY WILL BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLATEAU.  AT THE SAME TIME...THOUGH...MODELS INDICATE THAT
   THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET WILL BEGIN SHIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST.
   
   AN INITIAL RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
   BY EARLY TUESDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME CUT-OFF... AS WINDS
   VEER TO WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF
   THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. 
   HOWEVER...ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIVE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MAY BEGIN
   TO DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...AS WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES ACROSS THE SOUTH
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
   DESTABILIZATION.
   
   ...EASTERN GULF STATES...
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ABOVE A RESIDUAL COLD AND
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ...AND PERHAPS A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
   ALABAMA INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. 
   THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING LIFT
   DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...WITH ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM
   PROBABILITIES BECOMING CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL
   WAVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  WHILE THIS COULD INCLUDE
   POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS...SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL
   SEEMS RATHER LOW AS CAPE REMAINS WEAK IN THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
   WARMING AND RISING HEIGHTS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   MODEL VARIABILITY CONTRIBUTES TO LINGERING UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND
   DEEP LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER JET
   NOSING NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...MAY DEVELOP FROM THE
   TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
   KANSAS.  HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION MAY NOT BE PROHIBITIVE TO
   STORM FORMATION SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL
   TEXAS...WHERE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE GREATER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   HAVE INDICATED THAT HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS...BUT
   PROBABILITIES THAT SEVERE CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED STILL SEEM RATHER
   LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
   DESTABILIZATION BENEATH A POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE CLOSED LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU IS EXPECTED
   TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED WEAK DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY...AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR UPWARD
   VERTICAL MOTION.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/13/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z