Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
LARGE PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF FORT WORTH TEXAS TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 209. WATCH NUMBER 209 WILL NOT
BE IN EFFECT AFTER 325 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 210...WW 211...
DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST S OF RED RIVER WILL BE FOCUS FOR
RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION ONGOING SQUALL LINE NOW
ENTERING SWRN AR WILL CONTINUE TO BE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT UNTIL THIS
EVENING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. WRN PORTIONS OF
SEVERE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED BY THIS EVENING IF THIS TORNADO
THREAT CURRENTLY ACROSS NWRN TX DEVELOPS FURTHER E.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 212 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 292025Z - 300400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
10NW FTW/FORT WORTH TX/ - 50SE HOT/HOT SPRINGS AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /23W DFW - 44NNE ELD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
REPLACES WW 209..AR OK TX
LAT...LON 33799748 34839248 33099248 32049748
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 212 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 212
VALID 300135Z - 300240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SHV TO
40 NE ELD.
..BROYLES..04/30/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC139-300240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-300240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN
OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 212
VALID 300130Z - 300240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE GGG TO
15 WSW ELD TO 30 WNW LLQ.
..HURLBUT..04/30/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC139-300240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-300240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN
OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 212
VALID 300035Z - 300140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ADM TO
40 E DAL TO 15 NNW GGG TO 30 SE TXK TO 40 SSW HOT TO 20 NNW HOT
TO 25 SSW RUE.
..HURLBUT..04/30/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-027-039-051-053-059-099-103-125-139-300140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK COLUMBIA
DALLAS GARLAND GRANT
HOT SPRING NEVADA OUACHITA
SALINE UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-300140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN
OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER
$$
TXC085-097-113-121-139-181-251-257-397-439-467-300140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DENTON ELLIS GRAYSON
JOHNSON KAUFMAN ROCKWALL
TARRANT VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 212
VALID 292340Z - 300040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW ADM
TO 40 SSW PRX TO 50 WSW TXK TO 40 NE TXK TO 25 SSW RUE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 636
..HURLBUT..04/29/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-027-039-051-053-057-059-073-091-099-103-125-139-
300040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK COLUMBIA
DALLAS GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING LAFAYETTE
MILLER NEVADA OUACHITA
SALINE UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-049-061-073-111-119-300040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE JACKSON LINCOLN
OUACHITA UNION WEBSTER
$$
TXC063-067-085-097-113-121-139-181-183-203-251-257-315-397-423-
439-459-467-499-300040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMP CASS COLLIN
COOKE DALLAS DENTON
ELLIS GRAYSON GREGG
HARRISON JOHNSON KAUFMAN
MARION ROCKWALL SMITH
TARRANT UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 212
VALID 292235Z - 292340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..04/29/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-027-039-051-053-057-059-061-073-081-091-097-099-103-
109-125-133-139-292340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK COLUMBIA
DALLAS GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PIKE SALINE SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC015-017-292340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-097-113-119-121-139-147-159-181-183-203-223-
231-251-257-277-315-343-379-387-397-423-439-449-459-467-499-
292340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FANNIN FRANKLIN GRAYSON
GREGG HARRISON HOPKINS
HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMAR MARION MORRIS
RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL
SMITH TARRANT TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 212
VALID 292135Z - 292240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 632
..HURLBUT..04/29/09
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 212
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-027-039-051-053-057-059-061-073-081-091-097-099-103-
109-125-133-139-292240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK COLUMBIA
DALLAS GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER
MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA
PIKE SALINE SEVIER
UNION
$$
LAC015-017-292240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-097-113-119-121-139-147-159-181-183-203-223-
231-251-257-277-315-343-379-387-397-423-439-449-459-467-499-
292240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN COOKE DALLAS
DELTA DENTON ELLIS
FANNIN FRANKLIN GRAYSON
GREGG HARRISON HOPKINS
HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMAR MARION MORRIS
RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL
SMITH TARRANT TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.