Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA
NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
SHENANDOAH IOWA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TOPEKA KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...WW 513...WW
514...WW 515...
DISCUSSION...TSTM RECENTLY FORMED NEAR INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE AND
WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT E OF SLN MAY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS
LLJ/MOIST INFLOW INCREASE LATER THIS EVE. OTHER WDLY SCTD STORMS
MAY FORM EWD ALONG THE SAME FRONT...OR N OF THE FRONT...EWD INTO NRN
MO...LATER THIS EVE. WHILE CINH ASSOCIATED WITH NERN FRINGE OF
STRONG EML CAP MAY LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE...THOSE STORMS THAT DO
MANAGE TO BECOME SUSTAINED SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN
REGIONAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /VERY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
ATOP FAIRLY DEEP AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/. BACKED LOW LVL
FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT...AND MAINTENANCE OF BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW INTO
TONIGHT AS LEE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN IN WRN KS...FURTHER SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 516 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 192355Z - 200700Z
AXIS..125 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25ENE SDA/SHENANDOAH IA/ - 25SSE TOP/TOPEKA KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 110NM E/W /38ESE OVR - 51SW MKC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
LAT...LON 40869258 38709312 38709776 40869737
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 516 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 516
VALID 200645Z - 200700Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW IRK
TO 25 ENE FNB.
WW 516 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200700Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310.
..PETERS..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-009-015-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-073-077-099-
117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-
200700-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BOONE CARROLL
CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD
DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR
GREENE GUTHRIE JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
STORY TAMA TAYLOR
UNION WAPELLO WARREN
WAYNE
$$
MOC001-005-075-079-081-129-147-171-197-211-227-200700-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATCHISON GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON MERCER
NODAWAY PUTNAM SCHUYLER
SULLIVAN WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 516
VALID 200555Z - 200640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW IRK
TO 25 NNW STJ.
..PETERS..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-009-015-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-073-077-099-
117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-
200640-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BOONE CARROLL
CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD
DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR
GREENE GUTHRIE JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
STORY TAMA TAYLOR
UNION WAPELLO WARREN
WAYNE
$$
MOC001-005-075-079-081-129-147-171-197-211-227-200640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ATCHISON GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON MERCER
NODAWAY PUTNAM SCHUYLER
SULLIVAN WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 516
VALID 200430Z - 200540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE SZL TO
20 WNW FLV TO CNK.
..KERR..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-009-015-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-073-077-099-
117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-
200540-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BOONE CARROLL
CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD
DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR
GREENE GUTHRIE JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
STORY TAMA TAYLOR
UNION WAPELLO WARREN
WAYNE
$$
KSC013-043-117-131-157-201-200540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DONIPHAN MARSHALL
NEMAHA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-041-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-115-117-
121-129-147-171-197-211-227-200540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CHARITON
CLINTON DAVIESS DEKALB
GENTRY GRUNDY HARRISON
HOLT LINN LIVINGSTON
MACON MERCER NODAWAY
PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 516
VALID 200335Z - 200440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE SZL TO
20 WNW FLV TO CNK.
..KERR..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC001-003-007-009-015-027-029-039-047-049-051-053-073-077-099-
117-121-123-125-127-135-153-157-159-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-
200440-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE
AUDUBON BOONE CARROLL
CASS CLARKE CRAWFORD
DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR
GREENE GUTHRIE JASPER
LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA
MARION MARSHALL MONROE
POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD
STORY TAMA TAYLOR
UNION WAPELLO WARREN
WAYNE
$$
KSC013-043-117-131-157-201-200440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN DONIPHAN MARSHALL
NEMAHA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-115-
117-121-129-147-171-177-197-211-227-200440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLINTON DAVIESS
DEKALB GENTRY GRUNDY
HARRISON HOLT LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MERCER
NODAWAY PUTNAM RAY
SCHUYLER SULLIVAN WORTH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 516
VALID 200235Z - 200340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-053-071-145-159-173-185-200340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
FREMONT PAGE RINGGOLD
TAYLOR WAYNE
$$
KSC005-013-027-029-041-043-045-061-085-087-091-103-117-127-131-
143-149-157-161-177-197-201-209-200340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS GEARY JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH
MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-
095-107-115-117-121-129-147-165-171-177-195-197-211-227-
200340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
JACKSON LAFAYETTE LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MERCER
NODAWAY PLATTE PUTNAM
RAY SALINE SCHUYLER
SULLIVAN WORTH
$$
NEC025-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-200340-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS GAGE JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA
OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON
SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 516
VALID 200140Z - 200240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-053-071-145-159-173-185-200240-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
FREMONT PAGE RINGGOLD
TAYLOR WAYNE
$$
KSC005-013-027-029-041-043-045-061-085-087-091-103-117-127-131-
143-149-157-161-177-197-201-209-200240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS GEARY JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH
MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-
095-107-115-117-121-129-147-165-171-177-195-197-211-227-
200240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
JACKSON LAFAYETTE LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MERCER
NODAWAY PLATTE PUTNAM
RAY SALINE SCHUYLER
SULLIVAN WORTH
$$
NEC025-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-200240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS GAGE JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA
OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON
SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 516
VALID 200035Z - 200140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 516
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-051-053-071-145-159-173-185-200140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE DAVIS DECATUR
FREMONT PAGE RINGGOLD
TAYLOR WAYNE
$$
KSC005-013-027-029-041-043-045-061-085-087-091-103-117-127-131-
143-149-157-161-177-197-201-209-200140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATCHISON BROWN CLAY
CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS GEARY JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH
MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE
$$
MOC001-003-005-021-025-033-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-
095-107-115-117-121-129-147-165-171-177-195-197-211-227-
200140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDREW ATCHISON
BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL
CHARITON CLAY CLINTON
DAVIESS DEKALB GENTRY
GRUNDY HARRISON HOLT
JACKSON LAFAYETTE LINN
LIVINGSTON MACON MERCER
NODAWAY PLATTE PUTNAM
RAY SALINE SCHUYLER
SULLIVAN WORTH
$$
NEC025-067-095-097-109-127-131-133-147-151-200140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS GAGE JEFFERSON
JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA
OTOE PAWNEE RICHARDSON
SALINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.