Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2011
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM UNTIL
300 AM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF
KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON SOUTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 513...WW 514...WW
515...WW 516...
DISCUSSION...SMALL MCS NOW IN ERN PART OF MIDDLE TN EVOLVED FROM
EARLIER DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FARTHER WNW. 00Z BNA SOUNDING AND AREA
VWP DATA SHOW PLUME OF WARM/MOIST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE
TN VLY...ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. COUPLED WITH WNW MID
LVL FLOW...SETUP MAY FOSTER CONTINUE ESE TO PERHAPS SE MOTION OF
MCS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL AS SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 517 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC TN 200145Z - 200700Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
60W TYS/KNOXVILLE TN/ - 25NE AND/ANDERSON SC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM EITHER SIDE /52N GQO - 29SW SPA/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.
LAT...LON 36418477 35368212 34158269 35208536
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 517 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 517
VALID 200530Z - 200640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N AHN TO
10 SW GSP.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309.
..PETERS..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 517
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC105-119-147-200640-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELBERT FRANKLIN HART
$$
SCC001-007-045-200640-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ABBEVILLE ANDERSON GREENVILLE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 517
VALID 200435Z - 200540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW AHN
TO 15 SW HSS.
..KERR..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 517
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC105-119-137-147-241-257-200540-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELBERT FRANKLIN HABERSHAM
HART RABUN STEPHENS
$$
NCC021-075-087-089-099-113-149-173-175-200540-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUNCOMBE GRAHAM HAYWOOD
HENDERSON JACKSON MACON
POLK SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA
$$
SCC001-007-045-073-077-200540-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ABBEVILLE ANDERSON GREENVILLE
OCONEE PICKENS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 517
VALID 200340Z - 200440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CSV TO
40 SSW TYS TO 25 WSW HSS.
..KERR..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 517
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC105-111-119-137-147-187-241-257-281-291-311-200440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELBERT FANNIN FRANKLIN
HABERSHAM HART LUMPKIN
RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS
UNION WHITE
$$
NCC021-039-043-075-087-089-099-113-149-173-175-200440-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUNCOMBE CHEROKEE CLAY
GRAHAM HAYWOOD HENDERSON
JACKSON MACON POLK
SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA
$$
SCC001-007-045-073-077-200440-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ABBEVILLE ANDERSON GREENVILLE
OCONEE PICKENS
$$
TNC007-011-065-107-121-123-139-153-200440-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLEDSOE BRADLEY HAMILTON
MCMINN MEIGS MONROE
POLK SEQUATCHIE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 517
VALID 200235Z - 200340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/20/11
ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...MRX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 517
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC105-111-119-137-147-187-241-257-281-291-311-200340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ELBERT FANNIN FRANKLIN
HABERSHAM HART LUMPKIN
RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS
UNION WHITE
$$
NCC021-039-043-075-087-089-099-113-149-173-175-200340-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUNCOMBE CHEROKEE CLAY
GRAHAM HAYWOOD HENDERSON
JACKSON MACON POLK
SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA
$$
SCC001-007-045-073-077-200340-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ABBEVILLE ANDERSON GREENVILLE
OCONEE PICKENS
$$
TNC001-007-009-011-065-093-105-107-121-123-129-139-143-145-153-
155-200340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT
BRADLEY HAMILTON KNOX
LOUDON MCMINN MEIGS
MONROE MORGAN POLK
RHEA ROANE SEQUATCHIE
SEVIER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.