Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 19
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT THU APR 2 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1040 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF FARMINGTON MISSOURI TO 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF PADUCAH
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 17...WW 18...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY
MERGING INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COMPLEX. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 19 SEVERE TSTM IL KY MO 030340Z - 031100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
55WSW FAM/FARMINGTON MO/ - 70NE PAH/PADUCAH KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /55WSW FAM - 10SSW PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28035.
LAT...LON 38339136 38658786 36908786 36599136
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 19 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 19
VALID 030855Z - 030940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE POF
TO 25 SW CGI TO 25 S CGI TO 25 ESE MDH TO 30 SW EVV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 197.
..PETERS..04/03/15
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC069-087-127-151-153-030940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC
POPE PULASKI
$$
KYC007-039-145-030940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE MCCRACKEN
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 19
VALID 030845Z - 030940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ARG
TO 25 NE POF TO 20 NNE CGI TO 35 ESE MDH TO 25 SW EVV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 197.
..PETERS..04/03/15
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-059-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-030940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN
JOHNSON MASSAC POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
$$
KYC007-039-145-030940-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC201-030940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SCOTT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 19
VALID 030745Z - 030840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE VIH
TO 25 W MDH TO 20 NE MDH TO 20 W EVV.
..PETERS..04/03/15
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-055-059-065-069-077-087-127-151-153-165-181-193-199-
030840-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER FRANKLIN GALLATIN
HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON
JOHNSON MASSAC POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WHITE WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-145-030840-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC017-031-093-123-157-179-201-223-030840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER CAPE GIRARDEAU IRON
MADISON PERRY REYNOLDS
SCOTT WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 19
VALID 030550Z - 030640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..04/03/15
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-027-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-121-127-133-145-151-
153-157-163-165-181-185-189-191-193-199-030640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER CLINTON EDWARDS
FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON
HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON MARION MASSAC
MONROE PERRY POPE
PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SALINE UNION WABASH
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-145-030640-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-055-093-099-123-133-143-157-179-181-186-187-
201-207-221-223-030640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER CRAWFORD IRON
JEFFERSON MADISON MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PERRY REYNOLDS
RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
SCOTT STODDARD WASHINGTON
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 19
VALID 030430Z - 030540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GLEASON..04/03/15
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-027-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-121-127-133-145-151-
153-157-163-165-181-185-189-191-193-199-030540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER CLINTON EDWARDS
FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON
HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON
JOHNSON MARION MASSAC
MONROE PERRY POPE
PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SALINE UNION WABASH
WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-145-030540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-055-093-099-123-133-143-157-179-181-186-187-
201-207-221-223-030540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER CRAWFORD IRON
JEFFERSON MADISON MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PERRY REYNOLDS
RIPLEY STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
SCOTT STODDARD WASHINGTON
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.