Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 53
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP SURFACE LOW SWRN NE WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDING A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WATCH
AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AHEAD OF LOW AND TROUGH WITH SHEAR
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20040.
...HALES
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 53
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP SURFACE LOW SWRN NE WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDING A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WATCH
AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AHEAD OF LOW AND TROUGH WITH SHEAR
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELL AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20040.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 53 TORNADO NE SD 231720Z - 240000Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30ENE PIR/PIERRE SD/ - 50SSE HSI/HASTINGS NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /21ENE PIR - 64NNW SLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20040.
LAT...LON 44529798 39919645 39919966 44520144
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 53 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 53
VALID 232035Z - 232140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CNK
TO 35 E HSI TO 30 SW OLU TO 25 WSW OLU TO 45 WNW OLU TO 15 NNE
BUB TO 35 SSE ANW TO 30 SSW VTN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 241
..JEWELL..03/23/09
ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC003-011-015-017-023-027-031-037-039-053-059-067-071-089-095-
103-107-109-119-139-141-143-149-151-155-159-167-169-179-183-185-
232140-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANTELOPE BOONE BOYD
BROWN BUTLER CEDAR
CHERRY COLFAX CUMING
DODGE FILLMORE GAGE
GARFIELD HOLT JEFFERSON
KEYA PAHA KNOX LANCASTER
MADISON PIERCE PLATTE
POLK ROCK SALINE
SAUNDERS SEWARD STANTON
THAYER WAYNE WHEELER
YORK
$$
SDC003-005-009-015-017-023-035-043-053-059-061-065-067-069-073-
075-085-095-111-117-121-123-135-232140-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX
DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY
HAND HANSON HUGHES
HUTCHINSON HYDE JERAULD
JONES LYMAN MELLETTE
SANBORN STANLEY TODD
TRIPP YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 53
VALID 231830Z - 231940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW HSI
TO 30 S EAR TO 15 SSW EAR TO 10 SW EAR TO 25 W EAR.
..JEWELL..03/23/09
ATTN...WFO...GID...OAX...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 53
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC001-003-009-011-015-017-019-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-053-
059-061-067-071-077-079-081-089-093-095-099-103-107-109-115-119-
121-125-129-139-141-143-149-151-155-159-163-167-169-171-175-179-
181-183-185-231940-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS ANTELOPE BLAINE
BOONE BOYD BROWN
BUFFALO BUTLER CEDAR
CHERRY CLAY COLFAX
CUMING CUSTER DODGE
FILLMORE FRANKLIN GAGE
GARFIELD GREELEY HALL
HAMILTON HOLT HOWARD
JEFFERSON KEARNEY KEYA PAHA
KNOX LANCASTER LOUP
MADISON MERRICK NANCE
NUCKOLLS PIERCE PLATTE
POLK ROCK SALINE
SAUNDERS SEWARD SHERMAN
STANTON THAYER THOMAS
VALLEY WAYNE WEBSTER
WHEELER YORK
$$
SDC003-005-009-015-017-023-035-043-053-059-061-065-067-069-073-
075-085-095-111-117-121-123-135-231940-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME
BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX
DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY
HAND HANSON HUGHES
HUTCHINSON HYDE JERAULD
JONES LYMAN MELLETTE
SANBORN STANLEY TODD
TRIPP YANKTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
