Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GADSDEN
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 225...WW 226...
DISCUSSION...STORMS INCREASING WITHIN REMNANT MCV AND ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE NEAR AL/MS BORDER HAVE RECENTLY REACHED SEVERE LEVELS WITH SOME
REPORTS OF TORNADOES. THIS CONVECTION WAS WELL IN ADVANCE OF
STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPING EAST FROM NERN TX BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO RECOVERING AIR MASS ACROSS NRN AL.
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FLOW IN A BAND SOUTH OF THE MCV...AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER AL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. GREATER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD TORNADO AND WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE EWD FROM AR
INTO MS AND THEN AGAIN AL LATER TODAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF EWD MOVING MID/UPPER
LEVEL WAVE. CELLS TRACKING ALONG NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE AND VARIOUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE ACCESS TO
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND WIND.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
...CARBIN
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 227 TORNADO AL MS 022000Z - 030200Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20SSW GLH/GREENVILLE MS/ - 30ENE GAD/GADSDEN AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /45WSW SQS - 54SSW GQO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.
LAT...LON 34069111 35008559 33278559 32339111
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 227 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 227
VALID 030130Z - 030200Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PBF TO
35 NE GLH TO 35 NE GWO TO 30 WNW CBM TO 20 SSW HSV TO 15 NW RMG.
WW 227 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 030200Z. A NEW WW WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY TO REPLACE WW 227.
..HURLBUT..05/03/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-015-019-027-029-055-057-073-075-093-107-111-115-117-121-
125-127-133-030200-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE
CLAY CLEBURNE ETOWAH
FAYETTE JEFFERSON LAMAR
MARION PICKENS RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON
$$
MSC007-011-015-019-025-043-051-053-055-069-079-083-087-089-097-
099-103-105-125-133-151-155-159-163-030200-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
CHOCTAW CLAY GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
KEMPER LEAKE LEFLORE
LOWNDES MADISON MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WINSTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 227
VALID 030040Z - 030140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PBF TO
35 NE GLH TO 30 NNE GWO TO 35 SSW TUP TO 35 S MSL TO 20 NW RMG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 677
..HURLBUT..05/03/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-015-019-027-029-043-055-057-073-075-093-107-111-115-117-
121-125-127-133-030140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE
CLAY CLEBURNE CULLMAN
ETOWAH FAYETTE JEFFERSON
LAMAR MARION PICKENS
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY
TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WINSTON
$$
MSC007-011-015-019-025-043-051-053-055-069-079-083-087-089-097-
099-103-105-125-133-151-155-159-163-030140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
CHOCTAW CLAY GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
KEMPER LEAKE LEFLORE
LOWNDES MADISON MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WINSTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 227
VALID 022330Z - 030040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E PBF TO
35 NW GWO TO 40 E TUP TO 20 NW RMG.
..HURLBUT..05/02/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-015-019-027-029-043-055-057-073-075-093-107-111-115-117-
121-125-127-133-030040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE
CLAY CLEBURNE CULLMAN
ETOWAH FAYETTE JEFFERSON
LAMAR MARION PICKENS
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY
TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER
WINSTON
$$
MSC007-011-015-019-025-043-051-053-055-069-079-083-087-089-097-
099-103-105-125-133-151-155-159-163-030040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
CHOCTAW CLAY GRENADA
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
KEMPER LEAKE LEFLORE
LOWNDES MADISON MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER WASHINGTON
WEBSTER WINSTON YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 227
VALID 022240Z - 022340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE TUP
TO 40 SW MSL TO 35 SSE MSL TO 30 NNE HSV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 674
..HURLBUT..05/02/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-015-019-027-029-043-049-055-057-071-073-075-089-093-095-
103-107-111-115-117-121-125-127-133-022340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE
CLAY CLEBURNE CULLMAN
DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR
MADISON MARION MARSHALL
MORGAN PICKENS RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON
$$
MSC007-011-013-015-017-019-025-043-051-053-055-057-069-079-081-
083-087-089-095-097-099-103-105-115-125-133-135-151-155-159-161-
163-022340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAY GRENADA HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA
KEMPER LEAKE LEE
LEFLORE LOWNDES MADISON
MONROE MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PONTOTOC
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WINSTON
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 227
VALID 022145Z - 022240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..HURLBUT..05/02/09
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC009-015-019-027-029-043-049-055-057-059-071-073-075-079-083-
089-093-095-103-107-111-115-117-121-125-127-133-022240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE
CLAY CLEBURNE CULLMAN
DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE
FRANKLIN JACKSON JEFFERSON
LAMAR LAWRENCE LIMESTONE
MADISON MARION MARSHALL
MORGAN PICKENS RANDOLPH
ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON
$$
MSC007-011-013-015-017-019-025-043-051-053-055-057-069-079-081-
083-087-089-095-097-099-103-105-115-125-133-135-151-155-159-161-
163-022240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAY GRENADA HOLMES
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA ITAWAMBA
KEMPER LEAKE LEE
LEFLORE LOWNDES MADISON
MONROE MONTGOMERY NESHOBA
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PONTOTOC
SHARKEY SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE
WASHINGTON WEBSTER WINSTON
YALOBUSHA YAZOO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (70%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.