Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1020 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
BEATRICE NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 226...
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS NE KS/SE NEB
OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LLJ IN KS. A FEED OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/ WILL HELP SUSTAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO GROW INTO A SMALL MCS
OVERNIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LONE SUPERCELL IN NRN KS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS. THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS
IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED VERY LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS STORM.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 227 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 250320Z - 251100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
60SSW EAR/KEARNEY NE/ - 55ESE BIE/BEATRICE NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /54NE HLC - 23SE PWE/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 40799943 40849579 39119579 39049943
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 227 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 227
VALID 250945Z - 251040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W MHK TO
40 NNE MHK TO 15 SW FNB.
..PETERS..04/25/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC061-087-177-197-251040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEARY JEFFERSON SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 227
VALID 250850Z - 250940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N SLN TO
25 SW BIE TO 25 NW FNB TO 15 NNW FNB.
..PETERS..04/25/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC041-061-087-177-197-250940-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKINSON GEARY JEFFERSON
SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 227
VALID 250735Z - 250840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE RSL
TO 35 N CNK TO 30 WSW LNK TO 5 E LNK.
..PETERS..04/25/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC041-061-087-143-177-197-250840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKINSON GEARY JEFFERSON
OTTAWA SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
$$
NEC025-109-131-151-169-250840-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS LANCASTER OTOE
SALINE THAYER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 227
VALID 250645Z - 250740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE RSL
TO 30 NNW CNK TO 35 W LNK.
..PETERS..04/25/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC041-061-087-089-123-143-177-197-250740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DICKINSON GEARY JEFFERSON
JEWELL MITCHELL OTTAWA
SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE
$$
NEC025-059-109-131-151-159-169-185-250740-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS FILLMORE LANCASTER
OTOE SALINE SEWARD
THAYER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 227
VALID 250540Z - 250640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..04/25/08
ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...OAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 227
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC013-027-029-041-061-085-087-089-117-123-131-141-143-149-157-
161-177-183-197-201-250640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CLAY CLOUD
DICKINSON GEARY JACKSON
JEFFERSON JEWELL MARSHALL
MITCHELL NEMAHA OSBORNE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC
RILEY SHAWNEE SMITH
WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON
$$
NEC001-025-035-059-061-067-081-095-097-099-109-127-129-131-133-
147-151-159-169-181-185-250640-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS CASS CLAY
FILLMORE FRANKLIN GAGE
HAMILTON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KEARNEY LANCASTER NEMAHA
NUCKOLLS OTOE PAWNEE
RICHARDSON SALINE SEWARD
THAYER WEBSTER YORK
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.