Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Texas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to
4.5 inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast
to develop and intensify rapidly this afternoon. Large to giant
hail will accompany the more intense supercells. As the stronger
supercells move east into richer low-level moisture in the Pecos
Valley, a greater risk for a few tornadoes is forecast. The risk
for a strong tornado may maximize during the late afternoon to early
evening timeframe.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Fort
Stockton TX to 15 miles north of Junction TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 183...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26025.
...Smith
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest Texas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to
4.5 inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast
to develop and intensify rapidly this afternoon. Large to giant
hail will accompany the more intense supercells. As the stronger
supercells move east into richer low-level moisture in the Pecos
Valley, a greater risk for a few tornadoes is forecast. The risk
for a strong tornado may maximize during the late afternoon to early
evening timeframe.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Fort
Stockton TX to 15 miles north of Junction TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 183...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26025.
...Smith
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 184 TORNADO TX 041930Z - 050300Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40WSW FST/FORT STOCKTON TX/ - 15N JCT/JUNCTION TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /32NE MRF - 9NNE JCT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..4.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 31710354 31759977 29729977 29680354
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 184 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 184
VALID 050245Z - 050340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE 6R6
TO 40 ENE 6R6 TO 50 WSW SJT TO 25 SSE BGS.
..FLOURNOY..05/05/24
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC095-105-235-307-327-383-413-435-451-465-050340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONCHO CROCKETT IRION
MCCULLOCH MENARD REAGAN
SCHLEICHER SUTTON TOM GREEN
VAL VERDE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 184
VALID 050115Z - 050240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 6R6 TO
25 WSW MAF.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 634
..FLOURNOY..05/05/24
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC095-103-105-235-307-327-371-383-413-435-443-451-461-465-
050240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONCHO CRANE CROCKETT
IRION MCCULLOCH MENARD
PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER
SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN
UPTON VAL VERDE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 184
VALID 050010Z - 050140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 634
..FLOURNOY..05/05/24
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC043-095-103-105-235-307-327-371-383-389-413-435-443-451-461-
465-475-050140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER CONCHO CRANE
CROCKETT IRION MCCULLOCH
MENARD PECOS REAGAN
REEVES SCHLEICHER SUTTON
TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON
VAL VERDE WARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 184
VALID 042305Z - 050040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..FLOURNOY..05/04/24
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC043-095-103-105-235-307-327-371-383-389-413-435-443-451-461-
465-475-050040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER CONCHO CRANE
CROCKETT IRION MCCULLOCH
MENARD PECOS REAGAN
REEVES SCHLEICHER SUTTON
TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON
VAL VERDE WARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 184
VALID 042145Z - 042240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 631
..FLOURNOY..05/04/24
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC043-095-103-105-235-307-327-371-383-389-413-435-443-451-461-
465-475-042240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER CONCHO CRANE
CROCKETT IRION MCCULLOCH
MENARD PECOS REAGAN
REEVES SCHLEICHER SUTTON
TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON
VAL VERDE WARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 184
VALID 042050Z - 042140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 631
..MOORE..05/04/24
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 184
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC043-095-103-105-235-307-327-371-383-389-413-435-443-451-461-
465-475-042140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREWSTER CONCHO CRANE
CROCKETT IRION MCCULLOCH
MENARD PECOS REAGAN
REEVES SCHLEICHER SUTTON
TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON
VAL VERDE WARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
High (80%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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