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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 28, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 28 06:08:18 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170328 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170328 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280608

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0108 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO THE CONCHO
   VALLEY AREA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING LARGE
   PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...AND VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous severe storms are forecast Tuesday and Tuesday
   night across the southern Plains.  A few strong to severe storms are
   also possible over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large mid- and upper-level trough/low initially centered over the
   Four Corners states will move eastward across the southern Rockies
   during the day, gradually emerging into western portions of the
   southern Plains through the afternoon and evening.  Meanwhile, a
   much weaker short-wave trough crossing the central Appalachians and
   vicinity early in the period will shift toward/off the middle and
   southern Atlantic coasts through the daytime hours.

   At the surface, a weak low will cross the Virginia/North Carolina
   vicinity through the day.  Over the southern Plains, a low is
   forecast to move out of eastern New Mexico into/across the high
   Plains of Texas through the afternoon and evening.  A dryline will
   mix very slowly eastward across west Texas through the day -- and
   should be overtaken by a faster-moving Pacific cold front during the
   evening/overnight.  Meanwhile, a west-to-east warm front is forecast
   to be lifting gradually northward across Texas through the day,
   likely shifting northward into Oklahoma during the evening/overnight
   as low-level flow strengthens.  This surface system and the
   associated upper low/trough will support widespread convection and
   enhanced severe weather risk across much of Texas and northward into
   Oklahoma -- particularly during the late afternoon and evening
   hours.

   ...The southern Plains...
   Persistent southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing storm
   system will allow moistening of the boundary layer through the day,
   along with gradual northward shift of the west-to-east warm front
   across Texas with time.  As a dryline mixes slowly eastward across
   the South Plains and Transpecos region, initiation of storms is
   forecast by mid to late afternoon -- both along the dryline and
   perhaps, in a more isolated manner, northwestward into portions of
   the Texas Panhandle.

   As the storms initiate within a moderately unstable environment,
   strengthening flow aloft -- veering from southeasterly at the
   surface to south-southwesterly aloft -- updrafts will acquire
   rotation and become capable of producing very large hail and locally
   damaging gusts.  Additionally, initial cellular mode suggests
   potential for a few tornadoes -- particularly across western North
   Texas where a strong tornado will be possible.

   As storms mature, upscale growth into lines (with bowing segments)
   is expected -- due to both very strong large-scale ascent and
   meridional flow aloft roughly parallel to the dryline/developing
   cells.  The band of storms should accelerate across north Texas and
   into southern/central Oklahoma during the evening, along with
   attendant risks for damaging winds and hail, and possibly an
   additional tornado or two.

   Meanwhile, additional storm development is expected during the
   evening farther southwest along the advancing Pacific front.  As
   this front merges with the dryline, the band of storms may elongate
   both northward and southward, with northern portions of the band
   possibly bringing a second round of storms/possible severe weather
   to parts of Oklahoma and north Texas.  Farther south, the convection
   should advance east across much of central Texas through the evening
   and overnight along with risk for hail and locally damaging winds.

   ...The Virginia/North Carolina vicinity...
   Multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast
   to move across the VA/NC vicinity during the first half of the
   period, as the upper system moves across the area.  Due to
   clouds/ongoing precipitation as ascent spreads eastward across the
   area relatively early in the diurnal cycle, destabilization is
   likely to remain somewhat subdued.  This -- in conjunction with the
   relative weakness of the system -- suggests overall severe risk
   should remain tempered.  As such, will maintain only MRGL risk for
   wind/hail with isolated stronger cells at this time.  Risk should
   diminish through late afternoon, and end by evening as the system
   moves offshore.

   ..Goss/Cohen.. 03/28/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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