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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 31, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 31 05:52:38 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150331 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150331 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 310552

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL
   TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   FROM W TX THROUGH AR TO SRN GA/NRN FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED
   STORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL
   TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES AND THE GREAT LAKES
   INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A LOWER-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL TRANSLATE EWD AND
   PRIMARILY INFLUENCE THE TX-MEXICO BORDER REGION TO THE S OF A RIDGE
   LOCATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW WILL
   FORM E OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN LEE OF
   THE ROCKIES.  A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP DURING
   THE DAY OVER NWRN TX WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE. 

   ...SRN PLAINS...
   AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SAMPLED OVER THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING
   WHICH FEATURED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM WILL RESIDE OVER THE
   REGION TODAY.  A WEAK THERMAL LOW IS FORECAST OVER NWRN TX BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON WILL AID IN ESTABLISHING A GENERAL NORTH TO SOUTH DRYLINE
   ACROSS NWRN AND W TX.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
   INCREASE ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL TX WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
   EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 55 DEG F NEAR THE DRYLINE TO THE LOWER
   60S FARTHER E.  DESPITE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   MEXICO TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT
   TO WEAKEN AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOCALLY ERODE THE CAP DURING THE 21-23Z
   PERIOD YIELDING ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD STORMS.  

   COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS /AOB -15 DEG C AT H5/ WILL FAVOR THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  ALTHOUGH THE
   LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL FEATURE GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST
   FLOW...STRONGLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN 25-40 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR -- SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  SUPERCELL
   HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST ACROSS SWRN OK DUE IN PART TO
   STRONGER DEEP SHEAR AND PRIOR TO THE LATTER STAGES OF THE CONVECTIVE
   LIFE CYCLE.  

   ...SERN U.S...
   THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL
   LIKELY ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH AND
   BECOME GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH A RESIDUAL FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING
   FROM AR ESEWD INTO AL/GA.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
   SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /1000-2500 J PER KG SBCAPE/. 
   STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL
   CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING A LARGE
   HAIL THREAT.  IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND MESOSCALE FOCI DETAILS
   BECOME MORE APPARENT WITHIN A PORTION OF THIS REGIONAL CORRIDOR...AN
   UPGRADE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN
   LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ..SMITH/LEITMAN.. 03/31/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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