SPC AC 180549
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
A few thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains to the
middle Mississippi Valley today into tonight. Showers and
embedded/sporadic lightning may also occur along the northern
California and Oregon coasts.
...Southern Plains through Middle Mississippi Valley area...
Synoptic upper trough will amplify along the western U.S. coast
Sunday, while a southern-stream shortwave trough off the coast of
Baja CA deamplifies and shears ewd through the southern Rockies.
Downstream from this feature, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will
move newd through TX and into the Middle MS Valley region. At the
surface a warm front will return north through TX and the lower MS
Within a broad zone of modest low-level theta-e advection and weak
destabilization, an area of showers and a few thunderstorms will
move from southwest through north central TX during the day in
association with deeper forcing for ascent accompanying the lead
southern-stream shortwave trough. This activity may diminish as it
continues northeast toward the middle MS Valley where instability
will be more limited. In wake of initial convection, additional
moistening and modest destabilization associated with the
strengthening low-level jet may contribute to elevated showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms overnight. Coverage will probably
remain isolated due to the marginal thermodynamic environment.
...Oregon and Northern CA coasts...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the OR and northern CA coasts
today within post-frontal region in association with cold air aloft
and steepening mid-level lapse rates accompanying the amplifying
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