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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 16, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 16 05:37:23 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140916 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140916 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 160537

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY CAPABLE
   OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KANSAS
   AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.
   ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GENERAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN INTO THE WESTERN U.S.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS AND A LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL
   TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MO/IA BY EARLY
   WEDNESDAY.  A FRONTAL ZONE OVER PARTS OF THE SERN STATES WILL ARC NW
   INTO THE LOW PLAINS OVER ERN KS AS A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
   NRN-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND EVOLVES INTO AN AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING.

   ...ERN KS/WRN MO...
   THE INFLUENCE OF A LEE TROUGH AND SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
   RICHER MOISTURE NWD INTO KS FROM TX/OK DURING THE DAY.  WEAK
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
   WILL BEGIN TO GLANCE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED RESPONSE
   IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMING FOCUSED OVER ERN KS ON THE
   NOSE OF A 30 KT WSWLY LLJ.  LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTENING IN THE
   H85-H7 LAYER WILL PROBABLY YIELD PARCELS REACHING THEIR LFC AND LEAD
   TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
   LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.  AMPLE EFFECTIVE LAYER
   SHEAR /40+ KT/ AND MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG WOULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
   SOME HAIL GROWTH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO FORM.

   ..SMITH/DEAN.. 09/16/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: September 16, 2014
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