SPC AC 120549
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1149 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS
   LARGE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WHILE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN STATES ADVANCES INTO THE SRN
   PLAINS BY TONIGHT. LEAD IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL EJECT ENEWD
   THROUGH SRN TX.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN THROUGH CNTRL ROCKIES...
   
   INITIAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FROM UT AND
   NRN/ERN AZ INTO THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES DURING THE DAY WHERE STEEPER
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER
   TROUGH. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH -25C
   AT 500 MB IN CONJUNCTION WITH ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
   POCKETS OF DIABATIC WARMING WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
   A RISK FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE
   AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST LIGHTNING COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
   THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS REGION.
   
   ...TX...
   
   A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY FROM SWRN THROUGH S
   TX WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING IMPULSE CURRENTLY
   LOCATED OVER NRN MEXICO. POOR LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY
   SUGGEST LIGHTNING PROSPECTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AS IT
   ADVANCES NEWD DURING THE DAY.
   
   OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITHIN
   GRADIENT ZONE BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING LEE
   LOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL
   RESULT IN A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH WRN TX AND SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
   PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING APPEARS TO BE
   LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN THROUGH NWRN TX WITHIN
   ZONE OF COOLING ALOFT...STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   DESTABILIZATION WITHIN APPROACHING UPPER JET EXIT REGION.
   
   ..DIAL/ROGERS.. 02/12/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z