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May 12, 2008 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 12 05:32:12 UTC 2008  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  | | |  
SPC Day1 1200Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day1 1200Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 120528
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2008
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE/AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE
   A TROUGH/LOW SLOWLY VACATING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE A
   SECOND TROUGH EXPANDS/DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN UPPER FEATURE SHOULD
   MOVE QUICKLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 
   MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ESEWD ACROSS THE
   NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN ON EWD/SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  BY 13/12Z...THIS FRONT SHOULD
   EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER REGION SSWWD ACROSS ERN
   NEB/CENTRAL KS AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. 
   
   ...WRN NEB AND VICINITY...
   LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY --
   IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.  WHILE THIS WILL
   LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT
   SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/HIGH-BASED STORMS.  LOCALLY
   GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM DOWNDRAFT...BUT THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...TX BIG BEND REGION...
   WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWWD ACROSS THE
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX...CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HINDER CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...AN
   ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TX/NRN
   MEXICO...AND AFFECT THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX.  WHILE STORMS SHOULD
   QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING...HAIL OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   STORM.
   
   ..GOSS/JEWELL.. 05/12/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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