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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 2, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 2 05:30:55 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150302 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150302 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 020530

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
   FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED
   TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AS WELL AS THE
   COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS
   ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
   FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.


   ...CNTRL/SRN CA AND THE CO RIVER VALLEY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
   ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE PERSISTENCE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
   HEATING TO PROMOTE WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
   PREVIOUS DAYS...THE COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE ALOFT MAY SUPPORT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CONVECTION.

   ...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
   AS A VORTICITY MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSLATES
   EWD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS...AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
   THAT THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACT UPON SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EVENING.

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL AL...
   AS A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE PASSES THE REGION LATER IN THE
   DAY...MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH WEAK
   ELEVATED BUOYANCY TO PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

   ..PICCA.. 03/02/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: March 02, 2015
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