SPC AC 190601
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/MO AND
   SOUTHEAST NEB...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO UPPER
   MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ANOTHER RELATIVELY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS A
   BROAD PORTION OF THE PLAINS/MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LEAD
   PORTION OF A PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
   NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY TONIGHT. A CORRESPONDING
   SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS KS/NEB/SD
   DURING THE PERIOD....WITH HEAT-AIDED SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
   DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX
   IN VICINITY OF A DRYLINE.
   
   ...PLAINS/OZARKS/MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE /AND-OR
   QUICKLY BE REESTABLISHED FROM SATURDAY PM CONVECTION/ ACROSS MOST OF
   THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. A RELATIVELY
   MOIST AIRMASS WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 60S AND SOME LOWER 70S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST
   OF A NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS COLD FRONT AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DRYLINE. 
   
   AIDED BY A SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION...SCATTERED
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. CONVECTIVE REMNANTS/OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES WILL BE A POTENTIAL FACTOR FOR
   REDEVELOPMENT/RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SUCH
   AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY WITHIN A RELATIVELY
   MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM
   FRONT. 
   
   SOUTH OF THE EARLY DAY/ONGOING ACTIVITY...STRONG HEATING/AGGRESSIVE
   DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF THE
   MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY INCLUDING SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHERN IA
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS OK AND
   NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX. HERE...MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
   EXCEED 3000 J/KG. AIDED BY STEADY HEIGHT FALLS AND AN INCREASING
   DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD /40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/...SURFACE BASED
   TSTM/DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE TO
   INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS AND
   SOUTHEAST NEB INTO FAR NORTHERN OK...PERHAPS BY EARLY OR
   MID-AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR/SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
   LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE INDUCED TRIPLE POINT...SOMEWHAT MORE
   ISOLATED/HIGHER-BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK SOUTHWARD
   INTO NORTH/WEST-CENTRAL TX.
   
   WITH AID OF A DIURNALLY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
   JET...FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STRONGLY FAVOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES /PERHAPS ONE
   OR TWO STRONG/ ESPECIALLY WHERE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE UPPER
   60S/LOWER 70S. BY EARLY/MID-EVENING...THE PROXIMITY OF THE SLOWLY
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND BACKING MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO
   UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AND AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AND MIDWEST.
   MEANWHILE...NEAR THE DRYLINE...A MORE DISCRETE MODE OF SUSTAINED
   SUPERCELLS /AGAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER-BASED ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD
   EXTENT/ CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT A
   LIMITED TORNADO THREAT AND SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS
   WELL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...
   A REMNANT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   THIS REGION. THIS FEATURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STRONG/POTENTIALLY
   SEVERE TSTMS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..GUYER/MARSH.. 05/19/2013
   
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