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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 28, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 28 05:21:58 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140728 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140728 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280521

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
   SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
   APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST
   SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
   OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

   ...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
   A RIBBON OF CYCLONIC 50+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
   CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STAYS FIXED
   OVER THE ERN STATES.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE
   CAROLINAS REACHING THE OUTER BANKS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE
   WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT NEAR S-CNTRL MS/AL AROUND PEAK
   HEATING.  MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WEAKENED
   CINH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ISOLD-SCTD STORMS IN THE FORM OF
   SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLD DMGG WIND
   GUSTS.  THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONCURRENTLY WEAKEN OWING TO
   DIURNAL STABILIZATION EFFECTS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

   ...NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
   A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST DEEPEN SLIGHTLY
   AND MIGRATE NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD IN TANDEM
   WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
   LIKELY DELAY/INHIBIT STRONG SURFACE HEATING BUT A MARITIME AIRMASS
   /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S/ AHEAD
   OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
   /400-1200 J PER KG MLCAPE/.  GIVEN THAT THE PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST
   TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY INTO HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
   MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY.  A LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRENGTHENING
   WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR
   SEGMENTS POSING AN ISOLD THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS...PERHAPS A
   TORNADO...AND LARGE HAIL.

   ..SMITH.. 07/28/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: July 28, 2014
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