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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 23, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Apr 23 05:35:20 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180423 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180423 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230535

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
   GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms are possible across parts of Georgia
   and South Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible
   over parts of the High Plains.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An upper low will drift eastward from the lower MS Valley toward the
   TN and OH Valleys, with a weak surface trough extending from western
   TN into GA by late afternoon. A warm front will lift north across
   eastern GA into central SC, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the south.
   Meanwhile, a cold front will extend from the AL/GA border southward
   across the western FL Panhandle.

   Precipitation and clouds are expected across the Marginal Risk area
   during the morning, driven by low-level warm advection and a 40+ kt
   southeasterly low-level jet. Most of the early storms are expected
   to be north of the warm front, with little severe threat.

   Later in the day, strong heating over GA will result in steep
   low-level lapse rates and perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with scattered
   afternoon storms likely. Wind profiles will be mainly unidirectional
   west of the warm front, with cellular activity producing marginal
   hail or wind. A few storms could become supercells near the warm
   front where low-level SRH will be greatest, but may quickly become
   elevated as storm motions will be to the northeast. Still, a low
   threat of a tornado exists, along with the marginal hail and wind.

   ..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/23/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: April 23, 2018
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