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    Day 2 Outlook >
Feb 19, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 19 05:59:24 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170219 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170219 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 190559

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1159 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
   TEXAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN GREAT
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
   southern Great Plains on Sunday and Sunday night.

   ...Synopsis...

   A strong low-latitude, mid-level trough will move east across the
   southern Rocky Mountains into the central United States on Sunday
   and Sunday night. As the larger-scale trough moves east, a lead
   shortwave trough will lift northeast from northern Mexico into the
   central United States, dragging a weak surface front across Oklahoma
   and Texas.

   ...Southern Great Plains...

   Widespread low-level clouds are expected through much of the day as
   moisture is drawn northward ahead of the aforementioned ejecting
   shortwave trough. Despite weak insolation, steepening
   mid-level-lapse rates and increasing low-level moisture will result
   in gradual destabilization across much of Texas and Oklahoma.
   Despite most unstable CAPE values up to 1000 J/kg by late afternoon
   across northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma, uncertainty exists as
   to whether thunderstorms can initiate as strongest forcing will
   remain west of the area. If thunderstorms can initiate, deep-layer
   shear around 50 knots will support supercell structures with an
   attendant hail threat. Weak low-level wind fields across this area
   should act to limit the overall tornado/wind threat. 

   By late evening into the overnight hours, increasing forcing for
   ascent should begin to overspread much of the southern Great Plains
   resulting in an increase in thunderstorm coverage. Expectation is
   that this activity would be elevated in nature, favoring a linear
   mode, given the decreasing instability and increasingly linear
   forcing. Isolated large hail or damaging wind gusts would be the
   primary overnight threat as this activity moves east.

   ..Marsh/Kerr.. 02/19/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: February 19, 2017
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