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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jun 19, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 19 05:39:57 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180619 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180619 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 190539

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains Tuesday
   afternoon and evening while marginally severe thunderstorms are
   expected from the Midwest into Virginia.

   ...Central Plains...

   Late evening model guidance suggests a significant short-wave trough
   will eject across the Great Basin into western CO by 18z then into
   the High Plains of KS/TX Panhandle by 20/12z. A corridor of stronger
   mid-high level flow will translate across NV/UT into the central
   High Plains by peak heating which should enhance convection that
   evolves over the higher terrain from southeast WY to south of the
   Palmer Divide by mid afternoon. CAM guidance supports this scenario
   with scattered supercells evolving over the Plains within a
   strengthening shear regime. This activity will be supported by
   large-scale height falls and moist upslope flow that should
   encourage east-southeast propagation toward western KS during the
   evening.

   Latest thinking is pre-dawn convection across the central Plains
   should gradually wane as it drifts into south-central NE by the
   start of the period. If convective outflow from this activity is not
   too disruptive, the strongest corridor of boundary-layer heating is
   expected to develop from southern CO into extreme southeast NE.
   Forecast soundings strongly favor supercells across southeast WY/CO
   into western KS. Aside from large hail a few tornadoes can be
   expected across this region.

   Thunderstorms that develop downstream along the frontal zone from
   the northern TX Panhandle into southeast NE will do so within a
   weaker-sheared environment and more clustering is expected. As a
   result, hail/wind will be the primary threats.

   ...Midwest to VA...

   Upper ridge is expected to be shunted a bit east Tuesday with
   anticyclonic flow forecast across the Midwest/OH Valley into the
   Middle Atlantic. High PW air mass will necessarily extend along this
   corridor which will coincide with a frontal zone draped from VA into
   IL. Boundary-layer heating will be instrumental in convective
   development along/south of this wind shift but environmental shear
   is not expected to support more than pulse/multi-cell updrafts.
   Locally damaging winds are the primary threat with this diurnally
   driven convection.

   ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 06/19/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: June 19, 2018
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