SPC AC 230535
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across parts of Georgia
and South Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible
over parts of the High Plains.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will drift eastward from the lower MS Valley toward the
TN and OH Valleys, with a weak surface trough extending from western
TN into GA by late afternoon. A warm front will lift north across
eastern GA into central SC, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the south.
Meanwhile, a cold front will extend from the AL/GA border southward
across the western FL Panhandle.
Precipitation and clouds are expected across the Marginal Risk area
during the morning, driven by low-level warm advection and a 40+ kt
southeasterly low-level jet. Most of the early storms are expected
to be north of the warm front, with little severe threat.
Later in the day, strong heating over GA will result in steep
low-level lapse rates and perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with scattered
afternoon storms likely. Wind profiles will be mainly unidirectional
west of the warm front, with cellular activity producing marginal
hail or wind. A few storms could become supercells near the warm
front where low-level SRH will be greatest, but may quickly become
elevated as storm motions will be to the northeast. Still, a low
threat of a tornado exists, along with the marginal hail and wind.
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