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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 2, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 2 05:15:49 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140902 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140902 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 020515

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NY TO KY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST TO THE
   MID-SOUTH TODAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PARTS
   OF KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD THROUGH NEBRASKA PER
   SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY TRACKING ENEWD
   THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...REACHING NY BY 03/00Z. 
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WILL
   DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
   FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD TEND TO BE
   QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE OZARK PLATEAU WWD INTO NRN OK...AND THEN
   ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT.

   ...NRN APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-SOUTH...
   SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z FROM PARTS OF
   CENTRAL/ERN OK ENEWD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU TO INDIANA AND OHIO. 
   THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED SWD FROM THE COLD FRONT
   AND SUPPORTED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE NEBRASKA TROUGH AND
   WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A 30-40 KT WSWLY LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY
   IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT CONCERN REMAINS FOR ASSOCIATED
   EXTENSIVE CLOUDS LIMITING DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION.  DESPITE POOR
   700-500-MB LAPSE RATES...SOME SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A RATHER MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT /PW TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES/ SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
   INSTABILITY PRIMARILY FROM SRN OH/WV WWD TO THE OZARK PLATEAU. 
   INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO BE MORE MARGINAL WITH NEWD EXTENT.  A
   STRONG BELT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
   WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...WITH 700-MB WINDS UP TO 40 KT AND
   500-MB WINDS OF 50-60 KT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-UPPER OH VALLEY TO
   NY. THIS AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDORS BY LATE MORNING
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE
   SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS THAT COULD YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK FROM CENTRAL/ERN KY AND SRN OH TO
   SRN NY.  BULK SHEAR WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH SRN AND WRN
   EXTENT...LIMITING THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INTO THE MID-SOUTH.

   ...CENTRAL AND ERN KS/WRN MO TO NORTHERN OK...
   LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL INCREASE TUESDAY TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY DIFFUSE
   WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH AND A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS INTO KS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD
   DEVELOP ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A GRADUALLY EWD-EXPANDING HIGH PLAINS
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.  WLYS WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD
   WEAKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING MAINLY A MULTICELL STORM
   MODE.  THE FORECAST FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
   THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ..PETERS/DEAN.. 09/02/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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