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    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 23, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 23 05:01:08 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141023 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141023 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230501

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1201 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF COASTAL NEW
   ENGLAND.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CONUS
   THURSDAY AS LIMITED BUOYANCY WILL BE PRESENT WHERE FAVORED REGIONS
   OF ASCENT ARE EXPECTED.  LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TOWARDS MOIST DEEP CONVECTION AS OFFSHORE FLOW
   INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE U.S.

   ...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...

   ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
   ZONE ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING CYCLONE.  EARLY IN THE PERIOD MOIST
   ASCENT WITHIN THE 850-700MB LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
   CONVECTION THAT COULD ATTAIN HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING
   DISCHARGE.  HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND
   THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.

   ...SOUTH FL...

   FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS THE STRAITS AS SRN INFLUENCE OF
   SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE
   PERIOD.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THIS WIND SHIFT SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO ASCENT NECESSARY FOR WEAK CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHTNING.

   ...PACIFIC NW...

   PROFILES WILL COOL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND
   DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE WA COAST
   SUGGEST SFC-BASED PARCELS COULD REACH LEVELS AS HIGH AS 6KM...MORE
   THAN ADEQUATE FOR LIGHTING PRODUCTION.  GREATEST RISK ALONG THE
   COAST WILL BE WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.  FARTHER INLAND...A FEW
   STORMS COULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS ERN WA
   INTO FAR WESTERN MT.

   ..DARROW/MARSH.. 10/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: October 23, 2014
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