Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 615 AM UNTIL
200 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF PINE
BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF HOUMA LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...
DISCUSSION...SSW-NNE LA SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY
ENEWD /WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION FOSTERED BY ESELY LOW-LVL
FLOW/...WHILE DEVELOPING NNEWD...AS LOW WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUE TO ITS EAST. GRAZING INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS/UPR
DIFLUENCE ASSOCIATED NEWD EJECTION OF TX UPR VORT ALSO MAY ASSIST
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STRENGTH/DURATION. CHARACTER OF LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS
AND AVAILABILITY OF SEASONABLY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SUGGEST
CONTINUED RISK FOR EMBEDDED LEWPS/CIRCULATIONS...SOME POSSIBLY WITH
DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES /SEE MCD 6/.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 2 TORNADO LA MS CW 101215Z - 102000Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
60NW PIB/PINE BELT MS/ - 45S HUM/HOUMA LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /26SSE JAN - 34WSW LEV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
LAT...LON 32088902 28928968 28929166 32089108
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 2 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 2
VALID 101915Z - 102040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE HUM
TO 20 W ASD TO 30 E MCB TO 15 SSE JAN.
..BROYLES..01/10/13
ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC051-071-075-087-103-117-102040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES
ST. BERNARD ST. TAMMANY WASHINGTON
$$
MSC031-035-045-047-061-065-067-073-091-109-127-129-147-102040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COVINGTON FORREST HANCOCK
HARRISON JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES LAMAR MARION
PEARL RIVER SIMPSON SMITH
WALTHALL
$$
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-102040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 2
VALID 101710Z - 101840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HUM TO
15 WSW MSY TO 20 ESE MCB TO 40 NNE MCB TO 15 SSW JAN.
..BROYLES..01/10/13
ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-103-117-101840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. TAMMANY WASHINGTON
$$
MSC031-035-045-047-061-065-067-073-077-091-109-127-129-147-
101840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COVINGTON FORREST HANCOCK
HARRISON JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS
JONES LAMAR LAWRENCE
MARION PEARL RIVER SIMPSON
SMITH WALTHALL
$$
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-552-101840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 2
VALID 101600Z - 101740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW HUM
TO 30 NW MSY TO 10 SW MCB TO 30 WSW JAN.
..BROYLES..01/10/13
ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-117-101740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
TERREBONNE WASHINGTON
$$
MSC029-031-035-045-047-061-065-067-073-077-085-091-109-113-127-
129-147-101740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
HANCOCK HARRISON JASPER
JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR
LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION
PEARL RIVER PIKE SIMPSON
SMITH WALTHALL
$$
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-101740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 2
VALID 101450Z - 101540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW HUM
TO 20 WNW HUM TO 20 NE BTR TO 15 NNE HEZ.
..BROYLES..01/10/13
ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC005-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-091-093-095-103-105-109-117-
101540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE
LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON
$$
MSC005-021-029-031-035-037-045-047-061-063-065-067-073-077-085-
091-109-113-127-129-147-101540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE CLAIBORNE COPIAH
COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN
HANCOCK HARRISON JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
LAMAR LAWRENCE LINCOLN
MARION PEARL RIVER PIKE
SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL
$$
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-101540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 2
VALID 101350Z - 101440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW HUM TO
30 S BTR TO 25 NNE HEZ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 7
..GUYER..01/10/13
ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC005-007-033-037-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-091-093-095-103-
105-109-117-101440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE
LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON
$$
MSC005-021-029-031-035-037-045-047-061-063-065-067-073-077-085-
091-109-113-127-129-147-157-101440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMITE CLAIBORNE COPIAH
COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN
HANCOCK HARRISON JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
LAMAR LAWRENCE LINCOLN
MARION PEARL RIVER PIKE
SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL
WILKINSON
$$
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-101440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
CHANDELEUR SOUND
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.