Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1035 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 75 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTSVILLE
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT
ACROSS TN. STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
TN...AND A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM OK/AR/MO. THE WARM SECTOR
S OF THE FRONT IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR IN THE MOIST/STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 2 TORNADO AL MS TN 210435Z - 211100Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
70NW GWO/GREENWOOD MS/ - 75NE HSV/HUNTSVILLE AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM N/S /56NW SQS - 43NW GQO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 35159094 36348583 34478583 33279094
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 2 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 2
VALID 210925Z - 211040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N GLH TO
40 N TUP TO 30 SSW BNA TO 35 WNW CSV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 37.
..EDWARDS..01/21/12
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...JAN...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-057-059-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-127-133-211040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FAYETTE FRANKLIN
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MORGAN WALKER WINSTON
$$
MSC003-011-013-015-017-019-025-043-057-071-081-083-087-095-097-
105-115-117-133-135-139-141-145-155-161-211040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BOLIVAR CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAY GRENADA ITAWAMBA
LAFAYETTE LEE LEFLORE
LOWNDES MONROE MONTGOMERY
OKTIBBEHA PONTOTOC PRENTISS
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO UNION WEBSTER
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-015-031-041-051-055-061-071-099-101-103-109-117-119-127-
149-177-181-211040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON COFFEE
DE KALB FRANKLIN GILES
GRUNDY HARDIN LAWRENCE
LEWIS LINCOLN MCNAIRY
MARSHALL MAURY MOORE
RUTHERFORD WARREN WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 2
VALID 210839Z - 210940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N GLH TO
35 NE UOX TO 60 SW BNA TO 40 WNW CSV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 37.
..EDWARDS..01/21/12
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...JAN...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-057-059-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-127-133-210940-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FAYETTE FRANKLIN
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MORGAN WALKER WINSTON
$$
MSC003-011-013-015-017-019-025-043-057-071-081-083-087-095-097-
105-115-117-133-135-139-141-145-155-161-210940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BOLIVAR CALHOUN
CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW
CLAY GRENADA ITAWAMBA
LAFAYETTE LEE LEFLORE
LOWNDES MONROE MONTGOMERY
OKTIBBEHA PONTOTOC PRENTISS
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO UNION WEBSTER
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-015-031-041-051-055-061-071-099-101-103-109-117-119-127-
149-177-181-187-210940-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON COFFEE
DE KALB FRANKLIN GILES
GRUNDY HARDIN LAWRENCE
LEWIS LINCOLN MCNAIRY
MARSHALL MAURY MOORE
RUTHERFORD WARREN WAYNE
WILLIAMSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 2
VALID 210737Z - 210840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE PBF
TO 30 SSW MEM TO 15 SSE MKL TO 25 ENE MKL.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING.
..EDWARDS..01/21/12
ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...MEG...JAN...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC033-057-059-075-077-079-083-089-093-103-127-133-210840-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLBERT FAYETTE FRANKLIN
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LIMESTONE MADISON MARION
MORGAN WALKER WINSTON
$$
MSC003-009-011-013-015-017-019-025-027-043-057-071-081-083-087-
093-095-097-105-107-115-117-119-133-135-137-139-141-145-155-161-
210840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR
CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW
CHOCTAW CLAY COAHOMA
GRENADA ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE
LEE LEFLORE LOWNDES
MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY
OKTIBBEHA PANOLA PONTOTOC
PRENTISS QUITMAN SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH
TISHOMINGO UNION WEBSTER
YALOBUSHA
$$
TNC003-015-023-031-037-039-041-051-055-061-069-071-077-081-099-
101-103-109-117-119-127-135-149-177-181-187-189-210840-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEDFORD CANNON CHESTER
COFFEE DAVIDSON DECATUR
DE KALB FRANKLIN GILES
GRUNDY HARDEMAN HARDIN
HENDERSON HICKMAN LAWRENCE
LEWIS LINCOLN MCNAIRY
MARSHALL MAURY MOORE
PERRY RUTHERFORD WARREN
WAYNE WILLIAMSON WILSON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.