Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
FORT WORTH TEXAS TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 1...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
ACROSS PART OF NORTH CENTRAL TX/SOUTH CENTRAL OK ALONG WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE MOIST PBL ARE CONTRIBUTING TO UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR CURRENTLY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR A
FEW TORNADOES WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...WEISS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW2
WW 2 TORNADO AR OK TX 202155Z - 210400Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
40WNW FTW/FORT WORTH TX/ - 10S TXK/TEXARKANA AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM N/S /50WNW DFW - 13SSE TXK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 34209801 34459400 32159400 31879801
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU2.
Watch 2 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 2
VALID 210155Z - 210240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE CRS
TO 40 ESE DAL TO 5 NNE MWL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 27
..GUYER..01/21/10
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC081-091-133-210240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER SEVIER
$$
OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-069-085-089-095-099-123-127-210240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN
JOHNSTON LOVE MCCURTAIN
MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC
PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC001-037-063-067-073-085-097-113-119-121-147-159-181-183-203-
213-223-231-237-257-277-315-337-343-365-379-387-397-401-423-439-
449-459-467-497-499-210240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE COLLIN
COOKE DALLAS DELTA
DENTON FANNIN FRANKLIN
GRAYSON GREGG HARRISON
HENDERSON HOPKINS HUNT
JACK KAUFMAN LAMAR
MARION MONTAGUE MORRIS
PANOLA RAINS RED RIVER
ROCKWALL RUSK SMITH
TARRANT TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WISE WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 2
VALID 202330Z - 210040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..01/20/10
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 2
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC081-091-133-210040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LITTLE RIVER MILLER SEVIER
$$
OKC005-013-019-023-029-049-069-085-089-095-099-123-127-210040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL GARVIN
JOHNSTON LOVE MCCURTAIN
MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC
PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC001-037-063-067-073-085-097-113-119-121-139-143-147-159-181-
183-203-213-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-315-337-343-349-363-365-
367-379-387-397-401-423-425-439-449-459-467-497-499-210040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE COLLIN
COOKE DALLAS DELTA
DENTON ELLIS ERATH
FANNIN FRANKLIN GRAYSON
GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON
HOOD HOPKINS HUNT
JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMAR MARION MONTAGUE
MORRIS NAVARRO PALO PINTO
PANOLA PARKER RAINS
RED RIVER ROCKWALL RUSK
SMITH SOMERVELL TARRANT
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WISE WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.