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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 645 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MATTOON ILLINOIS TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF WEST PLAINS MISSOURI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 138...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL/SWRN MO
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD UNDER STRONG UPPER FLOW.
ADDITIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS STL AREA AND WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF AT LEAST LARGE
HAIL INTO CENTRAL IL. ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...STORMS
WILL HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND THEY EVOLVE MORE
INTO SHORT LINES/BOWS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 139 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 272345Z - 280600Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NW MTO/MATTOON IL/ - 15S UNO/WEST PLAINS MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /9ENE DEC - 51WNW ARG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 39778755 36529079 36529294 39778980
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 139 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 139
VALID 280455Z - 280540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE TBN TO
10 W MDH.
..DIAL..03/28/08
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 139
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MOC017-023-031-035-091-093-123-149-157-179-181-203-223-280540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER HOWELL IRON
MADISON OREGON PERRY
REYNOLDS RIPLEY SHANNON
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 139
VALID 280350Z - 280440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW STL
TO 35 S MTO.
..DIAL..03/28/08
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 139
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC025-027-077-081-121-133-145-157-163-189-280440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLINTON JACKSON
JEFFERSON MARION MONROE
PERRY RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
WASHINGTON
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-091-093-099-123-149-157-179-181-186-187-189-
203-223-510-280440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON MADISON OREGON
PERRY REYNOLDS RIPLEY
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS
SHANNON WAYNE
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 139
VALID 280235Z - 280340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW STL TO
25 SE MTO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 491
..DIAL..03/28/08
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 139
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-025-027-049-051-077-079-081-119-121-133-145-157-163-189-
280340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CLAY CLINTON
EFFINGHAM FAYETTE JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON MADISON
MARION MONROE PERRY
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-091-093-099-123-149-157-179-181-183-186-187-
189-203-219-223-510-280340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON MADISON OREGON
PERRY REYNOLDS RIPLEY
ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS
ST. LOUIS SHANNON WARREN
WAYNE
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 139
VALID 280135Z - 280240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 489
..DIAL..03/28/08
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 139
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-035-049-051-061-077-079-081-083-
117-119-121-133-135-139-145-157-163-173-189-280240-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
COLES CUMBERLAND EFFINGHAM
FAYETTE GREENE JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE
PERRY RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SHELBY WASHINGTON
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-091-093-099-113-123-149-157-179-181-183-186-
187-189-203-219-223-510-280240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON
OREGON PERRY REYNOLDS
RIPLEY ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS SHANNON
WARREN WAYNE
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 139
VALID 280035Z - 280140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 489.
..GRAMS..03/28/08
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...PAH...SGF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 139
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-035-049-051-061-077-079-081-083-
117-119-121-133-135-139-145-157-163-173-189-280140-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN
CLARK CLAY CLINTON
COLES CUMBERLAND EFFINGHAM
FAYETTE GREENE JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MARION
MONROE MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE
PERRY RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
SHELBY WASHINGTON
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-091-093-099-113-123-149-157-179-181-183-186-
187-189-203-219-223-510-280140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER HOWELL IRON
JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON
OREGON PERRY REYNOLDS
RIPLEY ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS SHANNON
WARREN WAYNE
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.