Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF HOBBS NEW MEXICO TO 20 MILES EAST OF DRYDEN TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WW THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. MOISTENING SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY...WITH
DESTABILIZATION SPREADING ENEWD WITH TIME. SHEAR IS MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY
SURFACE-BASED STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN SRN PORTIONS OF WW INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 139 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 112020Z - 120400Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
75NNE HOB/HOBBS NM/ - 20E 6R6/DRYDEN TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /40W LBB - 71NW DLF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030.
LAT...LON 33680150 30030070 30030305 33680394
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 139 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 139
VALID 120325Z - 120400Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E 6R6 TO
15 NW MAF TO 20 ESE BGS.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 139 MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO...OTHERWISE A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT 04Z
EXPIRATION.
..KERR..04/12/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 139
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC105-169-173-329-335-383-415-443-461-120400-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT GARZA GLASSCOCK
MIDLAND MITCHELL REAGAN
SCURRY TERRELL UPTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 139
VALID 120230Z - 120340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FST
TO 30 SE LBB.
..KERR..04/12/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 139
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC003-033-103-105-115-135-173-227-317-329-335-371-383-415-443-
461-475-120340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN CRANE
CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR
GLASSCOCK HOWARD MARTIN
MIDLAND MITCHELL PECOS
REAGAN SCURRY TERRELL
UPTON WARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 139
VALID 120135Z - 120240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FST
TO 15 W LBB.
..KERR..04/12/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 139
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC003-033-103-105-115-135-173-227-303-305-317-329-335-371-383-
415-443-445-461-475-120240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN CRANE
CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR
GLASSCOCK HOWARD LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND
MITCHELL PECOS REAGAN
SCURRY TERRELL TERRY
UPTON WARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 139
VALID 120040Z - 120140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/12/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 139
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC025-120140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEA
$$
TXC003-017-033-079-103-105-115-135-165-173-219-227-279-303-305-
317-329-371-383-443-445-461-475-495-501-120140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BAILEY BORDEN
COCHRAN CRANE CROCKETT
DAWSON ECTOR GAINES
GLASSCOCK HOCKLEY HOWARD
LAMB LUBBOCK LYNN
MARTIN MIDLAND PECOS
REAGAN TERRELL TERRY
UPTON WARD WINKLER
YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 139
VALID 120000Z - 120140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/11/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 139
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC025-120140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEA
$$
TXC003-017-033-079-103-105-115-135-165-173-219-227-279-301-303-
305-317-329-371-383-389-443-445-461-475-495-501-120140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BAILEY BORDEN
COCHRAN CRANE CROCKETT
DAWSON ECTOR GAINES
GLASSCOCK HOCKLEY HOWARD
LAMB LOVING LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND
PECOS REAGAN REEVES
TERRELL TERRY UPTON
WARD WINKLER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 139
VALID 112230Z - 112340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/11/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 139
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-112340-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC003-017-033-079-103-105-115-135-165-173-219-227-279-301-303-
305-317-329-371-383-389-443-445-461-475-495-501-112340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BAILEY BORDEN
COCHRAN CRANE CROCKETT
DAWSON ECTOR GAINES
GLASSCOCK HOCKLEY HOWARD
LAMB LOVING LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND
PECOS REAGAN REEVES
TERRELL TERRY UPTON
WARD WINKLER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 139
VALID 112135Z - 112240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..04/11/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...LUB...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 139
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-112240-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
$$
TXC003-017-033-079-103-105-115-135-165-173-219-227-279-301-303-
305-317-329-371-383-389-443-445-461-475-495-501-112240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BAILEY BORDEN
COCHRAN CRANE CROCKETT
DAWSON ECTOR GAINES
GLASSCOCK HOCKLEY HOWARD
LAMB LOVING LUBBOCK
LYNN MARTIN MIDLAND
PECOS REAGAN REEVES
TERRELL TERRY UPTON
WARD WINKLER YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.