Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 294
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF
HUTCHINSON KANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MANHATTAN KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 290...WW 291...WW
292...WW 293...
DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH ATTENDANT LLJ INTENSIFYING
ACROSS WW OVERNIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SWD FROM
NERN INTO SWRN KS... WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS
EXTENDING E-W AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER S-CENTRAL KS. ENHANCED LIFT
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...THOUGH LARGE HAIL MAY BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS. SOME OF THE HAIL COULD BECOME
QUITE LARGE...AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IF STORMS CAN
SUSTAIN A LINEAR CONFIGURATION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING OF
STORMS OVER AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
BE A HAZARD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 294 SEVERE TSTM KS 240045Z - 240800Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
50W HUT/HUTCHINSON KS/ - 25ESE MHK/MANHATTAN KS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM EITHER SIDE /60WNW ICT - 65E SLN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 39029922 39959666 38029581 37119837
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 294 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 294
VALID 240435Z - 240540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 876.
..PETERS..05/24/07
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 294
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-015-017-027-029-041-053-061-073-077-079-095-105-111-113-
115-117-127-143-149-155-159-161-167-169-173-197-201-240540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BUTLER CHASE
CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON
ELLSWORTH GEARY GREENWOOD
HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN
LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MORRIS
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO
RICE RILEY RUSSELL
SALINE SEDGWICK WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 294
VALID 240330Z - 240440Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/24/07
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 294
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-015-017-027-029-041-053-061-073-077-079-095-105-111-113-
115-117-127-143-149-155-159-161-167-169-173-197-201-240440-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BUTLER CHASE
CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON
ELLSWORTH GEARY GREENWOOD
HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN
LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MORRIS
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO
RICE RILEY RUSSELL
SALINE SEDGWICK WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 294
VALID 240235Z - 240340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/24/07
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 294
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-015-017-027-029-041-053-061-073-077-079-095-105-111-113-
115-117-127-143-149-155-159-161-167-169-173-197-201-240340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BUTLER CHASE
CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON
ELLSWORTH GEARY GREENWOOD
HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN
LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MORRIS
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO
RICE RILEY RUSSELL
SALINE SEDGWICK WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 294
VALID 240135Z - 240240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..PETERS..05/24/07
ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 294
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC009-015-017-027-029-041-053-061-073-077-079-095-105-111-113-
115-117-127-143-149-155-159-161-167-169-173-197-201-240240-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BUTLER CHASE
CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON
ELLSWORTH GEARY GREENWOOD
HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN
LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON
MARION MARSHALL MORRIS
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO
RICE RILEY RUSSELL
SALINE SEDGWICK WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
High (80%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (50%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.