Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 AM CST MON JAN 23 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 150 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH OF
KNOXVILLE TENNESSEE TO 10 MILES WEST OF CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...WW 8...WW 9...
DISCUSSION...PREFRONTAL NE-SW SQLN NOW NEAR BNA...AND COMPLEX AREA
OF SUPERCELLS STORMS FARTHER E/SE...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY
ENEWD INTO E TN LATER THIS MORNING AS REGION IS GLANCED BY STRONG
UPR TROUGH NOW ASSUMING AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER W TN/SE
MO. INTENSE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT SUGGESTS THAT
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF DMGG SFC WINDS AND POSSIBLY
AN ISOLD TORNADO...DESPITE RESIDUAL LAYER OF STABLE WEDGE-TYPE AIR
THAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE WW REGION AT THE SFC.
NOTE: EXISTING TORNADO WW 7 WILL BE AREALLY EXTENDED SLIGHTLY EWD TO
INCLUDE THOSE COUNTIES IN MIDDLE TN NOT CURRENTLY UNDER WW 7 AND NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS SVR TSTM WW.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 24045.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 10 SEVERE TSTM NC TN VA 230750Z - 231500Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65N TYS/KNOXVILLE TN/ - 10W CHA/CHATTANOOGA TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /17SSE LOZ - 12WNW GQO/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
LAT...LON 36758273 35028413 35028661 36758526
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 10 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 10
VALID 231055Z - 231140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CHA TO
25 SSE LOZ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 58
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 10
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC039-231140-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE
$$
TNC001-009-011-013-025-057-063-065-067-089-093-105-107-121-123-
139-143-145-155-173-231140-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLOUNT BRADLEY
CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE GRAINGER
HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK
JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON
MCMINN MEIGS MONROE
POLK RHEA ROANE
SEVIER UNION
$$
VAC105-231140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 10
VALID 230945Z - 231040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..01/23/12
ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 10
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC039-231040-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE
$$
TNC001-007-009-011-013-025-035-049-057-063-065-067-089-093-105-
107-115-121-123-129-133-137-139-143-145-151-153-155-173-175-185-
231040-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT
BRADLEY CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE
CUMBERLAND FENTRESS GRAINGER
HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK
JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON
MCMINN MARION MEIGS
MONROE MORGAN OVERTON
PICKETT POLK RHEA
ROANE SCOTT SEQUATCHIE
SEVIER UNION VAN BUREN
WHITE
$$
VAC105-231040-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.