Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 540
PM UNTIL 100 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...WW 9...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BOW ECHOS AND SUPERCELLS SEEM TO BE THE
GREATEST RISK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 10 TORNADO AR LA MO OK TX 292340Z - 300700Z
AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50W IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/ - 30NW ARG/WALNUT RIDGE AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM E/W /52NE LFK - 26NW ARG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
LAT...LON 31729565 36419311 36418951 31729225
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 10 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 10
VALID 300435Z - 300540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W IER TO
25 NE ARG.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 84.
..GRAMS..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-017-025-035-037-041-043-069-077-079-093-095-107-
111-117-123-139-147-300540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CHICOT CLEVELAND CRITTENDEN
CROSS DESHA DREW
JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN
MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS
UNION WOODRUFF
$$
LAC013-021-025-027-029-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-
081-083-085-107-111-123-127-300540-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
TENSAS UNION WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137-143-
151-161-300540-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA DESOTO
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL PANOLA
QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC069-155-300540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-183-300540-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HAYWOOD LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
TXC403-405-300540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 10
VALID 300335Z - 300440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE LFK TO
45 NNW ELD TO 30 SE UNO.
..MOSIER..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-021-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-053-
055-063-067-069-075-077-079-085-093-095-103-107-111-117-119-121-
123-139-145-147-300440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLAY
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
DESHA DREW GRANT
GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LEE
LINCOLN LONOKE MISSISSIPPI
MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS
POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI
RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS UNION
WHITE WOODRUFF
$$
LAC013-015-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-
069-073-081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-300440-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CALDWELL
CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE CONCORDIA
DE SOTO EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RED RIVER
RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS
UNION WEBSTER WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137-143-
151-161-300440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA DESOTO
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL PANOLA
QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC069-155-300440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-183-300440-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HAYWOOD LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
TXC005-347-403-405-419-300440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA NACOGDOCHES SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 10
VALID 300235Z - 300340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE DEQ
TO 35 SSW FLP TO 25 SE UNO.
..MOSIER..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-037-039-
041-043-045-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-
079-081-085-091-093-095-097-099-103-105-107-109-111-117-119-121-
123-125-133-135-137-139-141-145-147-149-300340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLAY CLEBURNE CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA CONWAY CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS DALLAS
DESHA DREW FAULKNER
GARLAND GRANT GREENE
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAWRENCE
LEE LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER
LONOKE MILLER MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA
OUACHITA PERRY PHILLIPS
PIKE POINSETT PRAIRIE
PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
SALINE SEVIER SHARP
STONE UNION VAN BUREN
WHITE WOODRUFF YELL
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-
067-069-073-081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-300340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
TENSAS UNION WEBSTER
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137-143-
151-161-300340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA DESOTO
HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA LAFAYETTE
LEFLORE MARSHALL PANOLA
QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TATE TUNICA
WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
MOC069-155-300340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
OKC089-300340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TNC033-045-047-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-183-300340-
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HAYWOOD LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
$$
TXC005-037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-
405-419-423-449-459-499-300340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN
GREGG HARRISON MARION
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RED RIVER RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 10
VALID 300130Z - 300240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOSIER..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-005-009-011-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-035-
037-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-
071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-
105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137-
139-141-145-147-149-300240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BAXTER
BOONE BRADLEY CALHOUN
CHICOT CLARK CLAY
CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN
CROSS DALLAS DESHA
DREW FAULKNER FULTON
GARLAND GRANT GREENE
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON
JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LEE LINCOLN
LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE
MARION MILLER MISSISSIPPI
MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA
NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY
PHILLIPS PIKE POINSETT
POLK POPE PRAIRIE
PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS
SALINE SCOTT SEARCY
SEVIER SHARP STONE
UNION VAN BUREN WHITE
WOODRUFF YELL
$$
LAC013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-
067-069-073-081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-300240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CALDWELL CATAHOULA CLAIBORNE
CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
TENSAS UNION WEBSTER
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC011-027-055-119-125-133-135-143-151-300240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR COAHOMA ISSAQUENA
QUITMAN SHARKEY SUNFLOWER
TALLAHATCHIE TUNICA WASHINGTON
$$
MOC069-155-300240-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DUNKLIN PEMISCOT
$$
OKC089-300240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC005-037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-
405-419-423-449-459-499-300240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN
GREGG HARRISON MARION
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RED RIVER RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
High (90%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (60%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.